Zhou Hang: How Much is SpaceX Really Worth?
Summary: Author Zhou Hang argues that while SpaceX is arguably one of the greatest industrial companies of the past 50 years, its anticipated IPO valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion is likely overvalued by about $1.25 trillion. The analysis acknowledges SpaceX's monumental success in slashing launch costs, achieving near-monopoly in commercial launches, and building the Starlink satellite internet constellation. However, using a projected 2030 revenue of $50-80 billion and applying a generous tech company valuation multiple yields a "reasonable" valuation range of only $500 billion to $1.2 trillion. The $1.25 trillion gap stems from premiums for its long-term vision (e.g., Starship, space-based computing), its status as a U.S. strategic national asset, and retail investor enthusiasm driven by the Elon Musk narrative. The article outlines three post-IPO scenarios: valuation solidification (25% probability), sideways consolidation (50%), or a correction to fundamental value (25%). The probability-weighted expected valuation is $1.3-1.5 trillion, suggesting negative expected returns for buyers at the IPO price. The conclusion cautions investors to separate the company's undeniable greatness from the stock's price, advising against chasing the IPO and to wait for key milestones or a lower entry point.
marsbitYesterday 02:20
