# Inflation Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Inflation", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

The Bond Market Deals a Blow to the AI Bull Market

The article "Bond Market Deals a Blow to the AI Bull Market" discusses how a recent global bond sell-off is threatening to end the AI-driven stock market rally that had been ongoing for about a month and a half. A sharp sell-off in global equity markets began last Friday, with significant declines in indices like South Korea's KOSPI and Japan's Nikkei 225. The primary suspect, according to Morgan Stanley, is the bond market. Key long-term bond yields, such as the U.S. 30-year Treasury and Japan's 10-year government bond, have surged to multi-decade highs. This breach of critical yield levels (like 5% for the 30-year U.S. Treasury) is seen as a dangerous signal that historically precedes risk asset corrections. The root cause is identified as resurgent inflation, fueled by rising oil prices due to renewed Middle East geopolitical tensions, specifically the breakdown of U.S.-Iran talks and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This has led markets to drastically revise expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve policy, now pricing in a significant chance of future rate hikes instead of cuts. Higher bond yields negatively impact stocks, especially high-growth tech/AI stocks, through two main channels: 1. **Valuation Pressure:** Higher yields increase the discount rate used to value future earnings, making the present value of distant AI-related cash flows less attractive. 2. **Relative Attraction:** Safer government bonds offering ~5% yields reduce the appeal of riskier equity investments in emerging markets and tech sectors. Despite the pressure from bonds, the AI bull market has fundamental support from strong sector earnings (e.g., semiconductor companies). The current situation is described as a "tug-of-war" between bond market turbulence and AI prosperity. However, warnings exist that AI stock valuations have become excessive. For investors, the advice is to increase portfolio flexibility. Suggestions include focusing on specific AI supply chain segments (domestic computing, semiconductors, equipment) and being prepared for continued volatility. The article concludes by noting the market is at a precarious point, caught between geopolitical uncertainty and the AI revolution, requiring careful navigation.

marsbit11h ago

The Bond Market Deals a Blow to the AI Bull Market

marsbit11h ago

Global Long-Term Bonds Break Down: The Fiscal Illusion of the Low-Interest Era is Collapsing

Global long-term bonds are experiencing a widespread breakdown, as the fiscal illusion of the low-interest-rate era collapses. Sovereign yields are hitting multi-year highs in the US, UK, Japan, and France, signaling a market repricing driven by a common reality: unsustainable debt and deficits outpacing economic growth, compounded by renewed inflationary pressures from energy shocks. The direct trigger is the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed oil prices higher and reignited inflation fears. This squeezes central bank policy space, with expectations shifting from future rate cuts to potential hikes. The core "fiscal Ponzi scheme" is becoming evident—governments rely on new debt to service existing obligations, but as growth lags and borrowing costs rise, investors demand higher yields. Key developments include the US 30-year yield surpassing 5% for the first time since 2007, with tepid auction demand; Japan's 30-year yield reaching 4%, threatening its long-standing low-rate financial system; and political paralysis in the UK and France making meaningful fiscal consolidation unlikely. The marginal buyer for US debt is also shifting from foreign central banks to more price-sensitive private investors. While debt managers may adjust issuance, fundamental drivers—deteriorating fiscal paths, persistent inflation, and constrained central banks—remain. The market is conclusively repricing the end of the low-interest-rate financing model for highly indebted developed economies.

marsbit15h ago

Global Long-Term Bonds Break Down: The Fiscal Illusion of the Low-Interest Era is Collapsing

marsbit15h ago

Bitcoin Erases May Gains in 2 Days, Ending 6-Week ETF Inflow Streak: A Washout or Turning Signal?

Bitcoin plummeted below $77,000, erasing all gains made since the beginning of May within 48 hours. The sell-off was triggered by a combination of factors: soaring U.S. PPI data, which reduced rate cut expectations, and a shift in institutional flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $1 billion in net outflows for the week, ending a six-week inflow streak, contributing to a market-wide liquidation of $657 million, predominantly from long positions. Amidst the panic, notable institutional moves signaled a strategic consolidation. Michael Saylor's Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) doubled down, purchasing nearly 25,000 BTC for approximately $2 billion. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs's Q1 13F filing revealed a clear pivot towards Bitcoin, completely exiting its XRP and Solana ETF holdings, drastically reducing its Ethereum exposure by ~70%, and maintaining its ~$700 million Bitcoin ETF position. The actions highlight a growing institutional dichotomy: either avoiding crypto entirely or concentrating exposure solely on Bitcoin.

marsbit16h ago

Bitcoin Erases May Gains in 2 Days, Ending 6-Week ETF Inflow Streak: A Washout or Turning Signal?

marsbit16h ago

The Warsh Storm Approaches

The article "The Warsh Storm Approaches" analyzes the potential market impact of Kevin Warsh becoming the new Federal Reserve Chairman, succeeding Jerome Powell. It argues that the current AI-driven stock market rally, concentrated in high-valuation tech giants, relies on a crucial premise: that long-term interest rates will eventually fall. This premise is now under threat as the 30-year Treasury yield remains persistently high, exceeding 5%, due to sticky inflation, worsening U.S. fiscal deficits, and deteriorating Treasury supply-demand dynamics. The core vulnerability is that high long-term rates pressure valuations by increasing the discount rate for future earnings. The article warns that Warsh's policy stance could intensify this pressure. Unlike Powell, Warsh is seen as more tolerant of market stress, more committed to quantitative tightening (QT/shrinking the Fed's balance sheet), and less inclined to provide implicit market support. His tenure at the Fed during the 2008 crisis shaped his skepticism about prolonged quantitative easing, believing it fuels asset bubbles without sufficiently boosting the real economy. While strong AI-driven earnings growth could theoretically offset higher rates, the narrative is currently concentrated in a few firms and hasn't yet translated into broad-based productivity gains for the wider economy. Therefore, the AI boom may not be enough to counter the valuation pressures from sustained high yields. Warsh's leadership could force the market to confront a new reality where the old supports—low long-term rates and a reliably supportive Fed—are no longer guaranteed, potentially triggering a reassessment of sky-high stock valuations.

marsbit19h ago

The Warsh Storm Approaches

marsbit19h ago

Trump to Swear in Warsh at White House, Markets Watch: Will He Heed President's Call for Rate Cuts?

According to a White House official, President Trump will personally preside over the swearing-in ceremony for incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the White House on Friday. Warsh, set to become the 17th Fed chair and its wealthiest ever, succeeds Jerome Powell. The White House ceremony underscores Trump's high level of personal interest in this appointment, contrasting with Powell's 2018 internal Fed swearing-in, which Trump did not attend. This marks the first White House Fed chair oath-taking since Alan Greenspan in 1987. The ceremony concludes an unusually prolonged transition at the central bank. Powell, whose term ended last weekend, has remained as acting chair pending Warsh's Senate confirmation and will stay on the Fed Board for an unspecified period. Warsh assumes leadership at a complex time, with the U.S.-Israel war on Iran exacerbating inflationary pressures and complicating the policy outlook. Critics have raised concerns about his independence from the White House. While Trump has expressed expectations for near-term rate cuts, Warsh pledged independence during his confirmation hearings but also sharply criticized the Fed's recent performance.

marsbit22h ago

Trump to Swear in Warsh at White House, Markets Watch: Will He Heed President's Call for Rate Cuts?

marsbit22h ago

Bitcoin's $78,000 Support Faces Ultimate Test: With Soaring Treasury Yields and Inflation Pressure, the Door to $75,000 is Opening

Bitcoin has fallen below the $78,000 support level, now facing a critical test due to severe macro pressures. The price slid from above $81,000 to a low near $77,711, with the $77,700-$78,000 zone identified as the next key support. The primary headwinds are surging U.S. Treasury yields—with the 10-year approaching 4.6% and the 30-year surpassing 5.13%—and persistent inflation. April's CPI accelerated to 3.8%, while WTI oil prices climbed above $105. These factors increase the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets like Bitcoin and tighten the Fed's policy space. Crucially, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which previously provided a buffer, saw significant net outflows on two of the past three trading days, removing buying support when it was most needed. The technical outlook hinges on whether Bitcoin can hold above $77,700. A daily close below this level could open a path toward $76,500 and then the major $75,000 support. A recovery above $80,000 is needed to break the bearish pattern, with a close above $82,000 (the 200-day moving average) required to invalidate the breakdown. Failure to hold support could shift the narrative from a crypto correction to a broader, macro-driven risk asset deleveraging.

marsbitYesterday 03:37

Bitcoin's $78,000 Support Faces Ultimate Test: With Soaring Treasury Yields and Inflation Pressure, the Door to $75,000 is Opening

marsbitYesterday 03:37

What Does The Rising US Inflation Mean for Bitcoin?

The latest US inflation report shows the Consumer Price Index rising to an annual rate of 3.8% in April, the highest level since May 2023. Typically, such inflation pressures the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, making risk assets like Bitcoin less attractive. Indeed, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw significant daily outflows, and Treasury yields climbed. However, Bitcoin's price demonstrated resilience, dipping only slightly before stabilizing. This suggests some investors still view it as a potential inflation hedge. Financial author Robert Kiyosaki has urged buying Bitcoin, gold, and silver as hedges, citing ongoing geopolitical tensions that drive oil prices higher and the growing US national debt that fuels further inflation.

bitcoinist05/16 04:01

What Does The Rising US Inflation Mean for Bitcoin?

bitcoinist05/16 04:01

BIT Research: If It Followed Nasdaq, Bitcoin Should Be Close to $140,000

BIT Research: Bitcoin Price Analysis Under Inflation Re-pricing The market is currently undergoing a macro adjustment phase dominated by inflation re-pricing. Analysis suggests that if Bitcoin had continued to follow Nasdaq's trajectory, its theoretical price would be near $140,000. However, a significant divergence between the two assets has emerged since October 2025. The core reason is the resurgence of US inflation, which has led to a reversal in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate-cut path. Recent data shows US CPI rising to 3.8% and PPI to 6.0%, prompting markets to scale back expectations for 2026 rate cuts. For Bitcoin, the previous supportive narrative of anticipated loose liquidity is weakening. Concurrently, escalating tensions involving Iran have driven oil prices up approximately 40% since late February 2026, heightening inflation concerns through rising energy costs. While the market currently views this inflation surge as a temporary pressure point, the interplay between energy, interest rates, and risk appetite is prompting a reassessment of the potential for a prolonged high-rate environment. In this context, Bitcoin has begun to underperform tech stocks, which can benefit from nominal inflation. The divergence stems from a key distinction: Bitcoin's past rallies were driven by loose liquidity and rate-cut expectations, not inflation itself. As a long-duration asset, Bitcoin is highly sensitive to interest rate paths. When expectations for rate cuts are withdrawn, its valuation faces pressure. Unlike equities, which can benefit from increased nominal revenues and reduced real debt burdens during inflation, Bitcoin possesses neither debt that inflates away nor cash flows that expand with inflation, offering no direct structural benefit from rising prices. Looking ahead, the critical question is whether high inflation will force the Fed to maintain elevated rates for longer. The BIT model anticipates US CPI could potentially rise further to 6.0%. Additionally, factors like AI infrastructure expansion—driving data center construction and power demand—may sustain energy price pressures and extend the period of above-target inflation. In such an environment, tech stocks gain from order growth and improved earnings expectations, while Bitcoin remains susceptible to high-rate pressure. In summary, the current shift does not invalidate Bitcoin's long-term thesis but reflects a market re-evaluation of interest rate and liquidity paths amid resurgent inflation. In the short term, a high-inflation environment may continue to suppress Bitcoin's performance relative to Nasdaq. This represents a slowdown in its upward momentum rather than a bearish turn. Bitcoin could regain support once markets begin to reprice expectations for future liquidity easing.

marsbit05/15 10:07

BIT Research: If It Followed Nasdaq, Bitcoin Should Be Close to $140,000

marsbit05/15 10:07

Raoul Pal: What Does Kevin Warsh Becoming Fed Chair *Really* Mean?

The Senate narrowly confirmed Kevin Warsh as the 17th Fed Chair. This analysis argues his appointment is part of a strategic economic framework, not a partisan shift. Warsh, a tech investor, uniquely believes in an AI-driven productivity boom. His mandate is to enable this by avoiding restrictive monetary policy, unlike conventional models that would hike rates against inflation. He is expected to shift Fed focus from headline to core inflation, signaling tolerance above 2%, and initiate a formal policy review. The goal is a coordinated "Fed-Treasury Accord" with Secretary Bessant, mirroring the 1990s Greenspan playbook. Bessant's international deals aim to secure foreign demand for U.S. debt, while Warsh's Fed ensures policy supports this structure through lower rates and dollar depreciation. Key implications: lower rates by 2027, a weaker dollar, and outperformance for assets linked to AI, crypto, and gold. The critical variable is the bond market; if long-term yields rise too sharply, the entire framework could fail. The next six months will test whether the market gives Warsh the space to implement this plan.

marsbit05/15 07:06

Raoul Pal: What Does Kevin Warsh Becoming Fed Chair *Really* Mean?

marsbit05/15 07:06

Bitcoin Under $80,000: Warsh Confirmed As Next Fed Chair—Here’s The Likely Impact

Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 amid news that Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Market analyst Sam Daodu noted Warsh's unique personal crypto holdings and views on Bitcoin, but also his hawkish stance, particularly on quantitative easing. The market's reaction to his appointment hinges on two potential Fed policy paths. In a hawkish scenario where Warsh signals a prolonged hold on rates due to high inflation, Bitcoin could fall below $78,000. Conversely, if he advocates for rate cuts citing AI-driven productivity gains, BTC could rebound to $82,000-$85,000. Key upcoming catalysts include a surprise rate cut or a revised "dot plot" indicating fewer cuts in 2026, which would likely push Bitcoin lower.

bitcoinist05/14 15:32

Bitcoin Under $80,000: Warsh Confirmed As Next Fed Chair—Here’s The Likely Impact

bitcoinist05/14 15:32

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