Unexpected Weak Non-Farm Payrolls Data Pushes BTC to Rebound 11%, FOMC Minutes to Test the Narrative of This Rally
Bitcoin has rebounded 11% from its 21-month low, but the sustainability of this rally hinges entirely on the Federal Reserve's release of the June FOMC meeting minutes. The bounce was triggered by a weaker-than-expected US jobs report, which showed only 57,000 jobs added in June—about half of economists' forecasts. This data prompted traders to scale back bets on further Fed rate hikes, fueling a rally in Bitcoin alongside gold and stocks.
The upcoming minutes are critical. They will reveal whether Fed officials, in their mid-June meeting, were already expressing concerns about a weakening labor market, tight credit conditions, or the risks of overtightening—factors that would support the market's recent dovish shift. Conversely, if the discussion focused on persistent inflation and the conditions for more rate hikes, the rally's foundational narrative would crumble.
Market indicators show the rebound's fragility. While US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a significant single-day inflow, it followed a prolonged period of outflows. On-chain data indicates a substantial increase in Bitcoin being moved to exchanges, creating potential sell pressure. Options market positioning suggests key price levels around $60,000 and $62,000 that could either stabilize or accelerate price movement.
In essence, Bitcoin's 11% gain is built on speculation about the Fed's private deliberations three weeks ago. The FOMC minutes will replace that speculation with concrete details, and the discrepancy between market expectations and the actual record will determine whether Bitcoin holds above $64,000 or falls back toward $58,000.
marsbit2h ago
