According to a Paradigm researcher, reported trading activity and volume on the prediction market platform Polymarket have been significantly inflated due to a data bug causing double-counting. The issue stems from Polymarket's complex onchain data, which emits redundant "OrderFilled" events for both makers and takers in a single trade. Major dashboards, including DefiLlama and Dune Analytics, mistakenly counted these as separate trades. This error impacts both notional and cashflow volume metrics. The discovery raises questions about Polymarket's recently reported success, including a $9 billion valuation from ICE based on potentially overstated volume figures. The researcher calls for more consistent and transparent reporting standards as prediction markets mature.

# Double-counting Related Articles

Polymarket trading figures are being ‘double-counted ’: Paradigm