Abstract
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is set for March 15, 2026, and prediction markets on Polymarket are offering insights into potential winners. With over $29 million in total trading volume, the markets indicate "One Battle After Another" is the frontrunner for Best Picture with a 76% probability, followed by "Sinners" at 20%. Analysis of major bettors shows one address holding a significant "YES" position on this outcome with an 89.7% win rate.
In the Best Actor category, Michael B. Jordan leads with a 57% chance, overtaking Timothée Chalamet (34%), who was the favorite until recently. Key addresses show mixed strategies, with one top bettor on Jordan having a negative historical profit.
The Best Director and Best Actress categories appear to be near-certainties. Paul Thomas Anderson holds a 94% probability for Best Director, and Jessie Buckley has a 97% chance for Best Actress, making them potential "sure bets" or "arbitrage plays."
Other notable categories include Best Supporting Actress, where Amy Madigan leads at 52%, and Best Supporting Actor, where Sean Penn is the favorite at 73%. "One Battle After Another" also leads Best Cinematography (73%), and "Sinners" is the overwhelming favorite for Best Original Screenplay (96%). The data provides a unique, market-driven perspective on the upcoming Oscars.
Author | Asher(@Asher_ 0210)
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony will be held on March 15, 2026. As the awards night approaches, discussions about "who will win" are heating up rapidly.
Beyond predictions from traditional media, film critics, and fans, crypto prediction markets are also providing their own answers. So, in the eyes of prediction market participants, who is most likely to take home the major awards at this year's Oscars?
Next, Odaily Planet Daily will break down the win probability for each award based on the latest market data from Polymarket. At the same time, we will analyze the betting situations of the top addresses holding positions in related events to find potential trading opportunities.
Best Picture Award: "One Battle After Another" Leads Temporarily with 76% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner, trading volume exceeding $29 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-picture-winner.
Currently, for the Best Picture award, "One Battle After Another" leads temporarily with a 75% real-time probability, while "Sinners" ranks second with a 20% probability.
Holding Address Analysis
Top YES Holding Address for "One Battle After Another": 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397, this address has a high win rate of 89.7%, with an average YES purchase price for "One Battle After Another" at 54.8 cents.
Address Holding ONLY the "One Battle After Another" Single Event: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d, this address bought nearly 10,000 YES shares at an average price of 74 cents 5 days ago and currently holds only the single event for "One Battle After Another" winning Best Picture.
Best Actor Award: Michael B. Jordan Leads Temporarily with 57% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner, trading volume nearly $7 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actor-winner.
Currently, for the Best Actor award, Michael B. Jordan leads temporarily with a 57% real-time probability, while Timothée Chalamet ranks second with a 34% probability.
It is worth mentioning that before the 7th of this month, Timothée Chalamet's probability of winning had consistently been in first place, once reaching as high as 80%.
Holding Address Analysis
Top YES Holding Address for Michael B. Jordan: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, this address has a win rate of only 48%, with a historical P&L of negative $200,000.
Top NO Holding Address for Michael B. Jordan: 0xafbacaeeda63f31202759eff7f8126e49adfe61b, this address has a win rate of 53%, with a historical P&L of $172,000.
Top YES Holding Address for Timothée Chalamet: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, which is also the top YES holding address for Michael B. Jordan, indicating this address is betting on either Michael B. Jordan or Timothée Chalamet winning Best Actor.
Top NO Holding Address for Timothée Chalamet: 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344, this address has a high win rate of 63%, with a historical P&L of $2.82 million.
Best Director Award: Paul Thomas Anderson Leads Temporarily with 91% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner, trading volume nearly $5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-director-winner.
Currently, for the Best Director award, Paul Thomas Anderson leads temporarily with a 94% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet".
Holding Address Analysis
Top YES Holding Address for Paul Thomas Anderson: 0x998154d8eb4ba7c4b34b10d76b9742d922d7dec4, this address has a high win rate of 83.6%, with an average YES purchase price for Paul Thomas Anderson at 93 cents.
Best Actress Award: Jessie Buckley Leads Temporarily with 97% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actress Winner, trading volume over $1.5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actress-winner.
Currently, for the Best Actress award, Jessie Buckley leads temporarily with a 97% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award also seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet".
Other Popular Awards
Additionally, awards with high discussion热度 include:
一、Best Supporting Actress Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actress-winner), Amy Madigan leads temporarily with a 52% real-time probability; Teyana Taylor ranks second with a 26% probability; Wunmi Mosaku ranks third with a 21% probability.
二、Best Supporting Actor Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actor-winner), Sean Penn leads temporarily with a 73% real-time probability; Stellan Skarsgård ranks second with a 19% probability; Delroy Lindo ranks third with a 7% probability.
三、Best Cinematography Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-cinematography-winner), "One Battle After Another" leads temporarily with a 73% real-time probability; "Sinners" ranks second with a 20% probability.
四、Best Original Screenplay Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-original-screenplay-winner), "Sinners" leads temporarily with a 96% real-time probability, potentially a "sure bet".
Related Questions
QAccording to the Polymarket prediction data, which film is currently the frontrunner to win the Best Picture award at the 98th Academy Awards?
AAccording to the Polymarket prediction data, 'One Battle After Another' is the current frontrunner to win the Best Picture award with a 76% probability.
QWho is the current favorite to win the Best Actor award, and what was a significant recent shift in the odds for this category?
AMichael B. Jordan is the current favorite to win the Best Actor award with a 57% probability. A significant recent shift occurred when Timothée Chalamet, who was previously the frontrunner with an 80% probability, dropped to second place.
QWhich two categories are described as nearly having no suspense and being potential 'sure bets' or 'savings plans' based on their high probabilities?
AThe Best Director category, where Paul Thomas Anderson has a 91% probability, and the Best Actress category, where Jessie Buckley has a 97% probability, are described as having almost no suspense and being potential 'sure bets'.
QWhat is the address of the largest holder of 'YES' shares for 'One Battle After Another' winning Best Picture, and what is their historical win rate?
AThe address of the largest holder of 'YES' shares for 'One Battle After Another' is 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397, and their historical win rate is 89.7%.
QIn the Best Supporting Actor category, who is the predicted winner and what is their probability?
AIn the Best Supporting Actor category, Sean Penn is the predicted winner with a 73% probability.
Related Reads
Exclusive Interview with Michael Saylor: I Did Say I Would Sell, But I Will Never Be a Net Seller
MicroStrategy's executive chairman, Michael Saylor, clarifies the company's recent announcement that it may sell Bitcoin to pay dividends on its STRC digital credit product. He emphasizes this does not make MicroStrategy a net seller of Bitcoin. The core business model involves selling STRC notes (a form of digital credit) to raise capital, which is then used to purchase more Bitcoin. Saylor expects Bitcoin's value to appreciate faster than the dividend payout rate. Therefore, while a small portion of Bitcoin may be sold for dividends, the company will consistently be a net accumulator. For example, in April, the company raised $3.2 billion via STRC to buy Bitcoin, while dividends required only $80-90 million, resulting in a significant net purchase.
Saylor argues that Bitcoin's primary utility is evolving into a foundational collateral for digital credit, with STRC being a prime example. He notes that STRC now constitutes a majority of the U.S. preferred stock market due to its high yield and favorable risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio). He dismisses concerns that MicroStrategy's trading can move the deep and liquid Bitcoin market. Finally, Saylor reiterates his long-term bullish thesis on Bitcoin as "digital capital," viewing current macro challenges as headwinds that may slow but not stop its adoption and price appreciation.
Odaily星球日报5m ago
Odaily星球日报5m ago
Interview with Michael Saylor: I Did Say I'd Sell Bitcoin, But I Will Never Be a Net Seller
**Summary: Michael Saylor Clarifies Strategy's Bitcoin Stance**
In a recent podcast interview, Strategy's Executive Chairman Michael Saylor addressed the market's reaction to the company's announcement that it might sell Bitcoin to pay dividends on its STRC credit products. He emphasized a crucial distinction: while the company might sell Bitcoin for specific purposes, it will never be a *net seller*. Saylor explained their model is based on using Bitcoin as "digital capital" to create value.
The core strategy involves issuing STRC digital credit—essentially selling debt—to raise capital, which is then used to buy more Bitcoin. He estimates Bitcoin appreciates at roughly 40% annually. A small portion of these capital gains (e.g., ~2.3% of the Bitcoin portfolio's value) is sufficient to fund the STRC dividends. Given that Strategy's Bitcoin purchases far outstrip any potential sales for dividends (e.g., buying $3.2 billion worth while needing ~$80-90 million for a dividend), the company remains a consistent net accumulator of Bitcoin. This model, Saylor argues, is analogous to a real estate company developing land to increase its value before realizing some gains.
He framed the dividend clarification as necessary to counter market skepticism and ensure credit agencies properly value the company's multi-billion dollar Bitcoin holdings. Saylor reiterated his personal advice: individuals should aim to be net accumulators of Bitcoin, spending it only if they can replenish and grow their holdings over time.
Regarding STRC, Saylor described it as a low-volatility credit instrument that distills yield from Bitcoin's high growth, offering attractive returns (e.g., ~11-12% yield) for risk-averse investors. He noted that Strategy's STRC issuance now constitutes about 60% of the U.S. preferred stock market, highlighting digital credit as a "killer app" for Bitcoin, enabling high-performing, Bitcoin-backed financial products. He dismissed notions that Strategy's trading could move the highly liquid Bitcoin market, attributing price movements primarily to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.
Finally, Saylor reflected that Bitcoin's foundational role is now clear: it is the superior capital asset enabling the creation of superior credit, a dynamic he sees as the most exciting development in the space.
marsbit12m ago
marsbit12m ago
380,000 Apps Exposed, 2,000+ Apps Leaked Secrets: AI Programming Turns 'Intranet' into Public Internet
Israeli cybersecurity firm RedAccess uncovered a severe data exposure trend linked to "vibe coding" or AI-powered software development tools. Their research found approximately 38,000 publicly accessible web applications built with platforms like Lovable, Base44, Netlify, and Replit. Of these, an estimated 2,000 apps exposed sensitive corporate and personal data, including medical records, financial information, internal strategic documents, and customer chat logs. In some cases, access even granted administrative privileges.
The core issue stems from default privacy settings that make applications public by default, combined with a lack of built-in security controls (like authentication) in the AI-generated code. This allows employees without security expertise—"citizen developers"—to easily create and deploy applications that bypass standard corporate security reviews. The exposed apps, often indexed by search engines, are trivially discoverable.
While some platform providers (Replit, Lovable, Wix/Base44) argue that security configuration is the user's responsibility and question the validity of some findings, security researchers confirm the widespread reality of such exposures. This pattern, also noted in prior studies, highlights a critical security gap as AI democratizes app creation, potentially leading to massive, unintentional data leaks.
marsbit1h ago
marsbit1h ago
Attracting Global Capital, Asia's New 'Super Cycle' Is Unfolding
Investors are turning to Asia as the next frontier for global equity growth, with a new "super cycle" unfolding across the region. Driven by the AI revolution, Asian markets, particularly South Korea, have seen significant rallies. According to Morgan Stanley analysis, the underlying drivers of Asia's industrial cycle are shifting from traditional sectors like real estate and manufacturing to massive investments in AI infrastructure, energy security and transition, and supply chain resilience.
Fixed asset investment in Asia is projected to grow from around $11 trillion in 2025 to $16 trillion by 2030, with a 7% annual growth rate from 2026-2030. The AI wave is a primary catalyst, driving immense capital expenditure for chips, servers, data centers, and power systems. Asia is central to this hardware supply chain. In China, AI investment is focused on building a full-system domestic capability, with the local AI chip market potentially reaching $86 billion by 2030.
Beyond AI, China's export story is expanding from EVs and batteries to robotics. The country already captures about half of new global industrial robot demand and over 90% of humanoid robot shipments. This growth phase mirrors the early stages of China's EV export boom. Simultaneously, energy security investments, spurred by AI's massive power needs, are rising, with China benefiting from its leadership in solar, batteries, and EVs. Regional defense spending is also increasing structurally, supporting demand for advanced manufacturing.
The main beneficiaries are China, South Korea, and Japan, positioned in core supply chain areas. However, risks remain, including potential overcapacity, profit margin pressures from competition, persistent technological restrictions, geopolitical friction, and workforce displacement due to AI-driven automation. Market volatility is also expected to increase as investor expectations diverge on the realization of these capital investment and export themes.
marsbit1h ago
marsbit1h ago
