Author: Ma He, Foresight News
Original Title: Five Key Indicators to Decode Bitcoin's Iron Bottom, Is the Buying Opportunity Here?
Wintermute stated last week that $85,000 is a key point for BTC and that it would choose a direction in the near future. Unfortunately, the direction was not upward but sharply downward.
On February 2, BTC once fell to $75,700, ETH fell to $2,220, and a number of altcoins continued to decline. In terms of liquidation data, according to Coinglass data, $435 million was liquidated in the past 12 hours, with long positions liquidated at $324 million.
The market fear index is 15, and market sentiment has once again fallen into extreme fear.
After the market turns bearish, where is the bottom range of BTC? Five major data indicators reveal the secret for you.
Data Survey: 30% of Users Believe BTC's Bottom Range is Between $60,000 and $75,000
On January 30, Foresight News conducted an investor market confidence survey. On that day, the BTC price was at $84,000 when the market survey questionnaire was conducted, and it has fallen significantly in the following days, so the results of this data questionnaire are for reference only.
The voting questionnaire showed (1,189 participants voted) that most respondents (45.6%) believe that BTC's bottom price in 2026 will be between $75,000 and $85,000. Another 30.2% of respondents believe the bottom price will be between $60,000 and $75,000.
44% of respondents believe that 2026 will be a bear market, while 35.3% of respondents disagree, believing it is not a bear market. Another 20.6% of respondents said they were unsure.
Nearly half of the respondents (47.2%) choose to dollar-cost average and hold Bitcoin for the long term. Another 25% of respondents choose to liquidate their positions and switch to stablecoin wealth management or wait and see the market. 17.5% of respondents are looking for altcoins for value investment.
Currently, among the voting respondents, 31% said they have almost cleared their positions but are still looking for opportunities to buy the dip. 29% of respondents said they have not sold the coins from the last round but are temporarily not adding to their positions and want to find opportunities to reduce them. 21% of respondents said they have not sold the coins from the last round and have already started adding to their positions.
Glassnode Shows BTC's Full Network On-Chain Cost is $55,900
Bitcoin fell below $78,000. Glassnode updated the key on-chain price distribution of Bitcoin as follows: STH (Short-Term Holder) cost basis, reflecting the average holding price of new buyers/traders who entered the market in recent months, is $95,400.
The average investment amount of active investors, the current average holding cost of traders who are truly "on the field" is $87,300; the Realized Market Mean, focusing on the cost of actual traders in the secondary market, is $80,500. The Realized Price, representing the average cost basis of all coins across the entire network, is $55,900.
That is, when the BTC price is below $80,500, the price you buy is lower than the cost price of other recent traders. If BTC falls below $55,900, it means the price you buy is already lower than the average cost of the entire network.
In the 2022 cycle bear market, the BTC price once fell below the average cost basis of the entire network. In this cycle, influenced by factors such as macro liquidity and spot ETFs, whether BTC will fall below $55,900 remains unknown.
ahr999 Indicator Shows Accumulation Signal
The ahr999 indicator was invented years ago by Weibo user ahr999 to evaluate BTC's short-term returns and price deviations. The calculation formula for this indicator is (current price / 200-day dollar-cost average cost) × (current price / exponential growth valuation), where the exponential growth valuation is based on a fitting curve of historical prices and block heights, representing the long-term "fair value". Historical experience shows: ahr999 < 0.45 is the low-price buying zone; 0.45-1.2 is suitable for dollar-cost averaging; >1.2 is the high-price zone.
On February 1, 2026, ahr999 fell below 0.45 for the first time, the first time in 839 days since October 16, 2023, marking a potential market bottom. The current break below the threshold suggests that the BTC price is significantly lower than long-term growth expectations, similar to the end of the 2023 bear market. This signal strongly suggests buying the dip, but it needs to be confirmed with volume to avoid false breakouts. Buying strategy: If ahr999 stabilizes below 0.45, you can buy in batches below $76,000, and reduce positions when it rebounds above 1.2.
Willy Woo Indicator Shows BTC's Iron Bottom is $45,000
The indicator developed by well-known analyst Willy Woo is the CVDD model. When Bitcoin is transferred from an old investor who bought at $1 to a new investor who buys at $100,000, the new investor will evaluate the value of these Bitcoins based on a higher bottom price, which helps raise the perceived bottom price of the entire supply globally. Active custodian rotation (i.e., Bitcoin frequently transferred between different investors or custodians) may also indicate that investors value these Bitcoins highly."
When many whales transfer BTC to new Bitcoin wallet addresses, the market bottom price is rising.
The BTC price has never fallen to the red line (CVDD model). Currently, the CVDD indicator shows its iron bottom is about $45,000. In past cycles, BTC once fell below the yellow line position in the chart. Currently, this range is $53,000 to $56,000.
Strategy's Bitcoin Cost Price is $76,040
As of February 2, the well-known Bitcoin accumulation大户 (large holder) Strategy holds a total value of approximately $54.2 billion, holding 712,647 BTC, with an average holding cost of approximately $76,040.
Historically, the area below its cost average price is the bottom range. Placeholder partner Chris previously stated that the $74,000 to $76,000 range is a price line worth paying close attention to.
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