Hyperliquid Tests Outcome Trading as Prediction Markets Heat Up

TheNewsCryptoPublished on 2026-02-03Last updated on 2026-02-03

Abstract

Hyperliquid is expanding into prediction markets with a new product called outcome trading, designed to offer event-based contracts without leverage or liquidation risks. This initiative, proposed under HIP-4, uses fully collateralized contracts structured within fixed ranges to support prediction markets and bounded options-style trading. The feature, currently in testnet, will rely on objective settlement sources and be denominated in USDH. The move comes as prediction markets gain regulatory attention, with the CFTC preparing new rules. Competitors like Polymarket have already attracted significant activity, and recent regulatory approvals are reshaping the competitive landscape among major crypto platforms.

Hyperliquid is planning to set its foot into prediction markets, rolling out a new product known as outcome trading that guarantees to open the door to event-based contracts without the leverage and liquidation mechanics that influence the crypto derivatives.

On January 2, Hyperliquid posted on X, saying that its main engine, HyperCore, will back outcome trading under a proposal said to be HIP-4, structuring outcomes as completely collateralised contracts that sit down within a fixed range and can boost prediction markets and bounded options-style trades.

Hyperliquid mentioned that outcomes target putting up non-linearity and dated contracts while proposing a form of derivatives trading that does not depend on leverage or liquidations.

It also placed the feature as a factor that can operate in company with portfolio margin and HyperEVM, indicating a push to broaden what developers can make on top of the pile. As of the current scenario, the firm mentioned that the feature is still in testnet, with canonical markets planned after technical work concludes.

The Transformed Competitive Landscape

Hyperliquid further went on to mention that those initial markets will depend on objective settlement sources, be termed in USDH and may further widen to unauthorised deployment relying on user feedback.

The timing matters, as prediction markets are shifting from the periphery to the regulatory agenda. The Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Michael Selig, revealed last week that the agency is all set with a new rulebook for prediction markets, as platforms like Polymarket and Kalsi have captivated billions in activity after allowing users to trade yes or no outcomes over politics, pop culture and more.

This regulatory shift has so far transformed the competitive landscape. Polymarket has once again entered the US market after it got approval from the CFTC via an amended order of designation, an action that could make event contracts a new engagement tool for prominent crypto platforms like Coinbase, as reported in a Clear Street report by analyst Owen Lau.

Highlighted Crypto News Today:

Ethereum Treasury Firm BitMine Faces $7B Unrealized Loss Amid Crypto Downturn

TagsHyperliquidPolymarkettrading

Related Reads

Arbitrum Pretends to Be the Hacker, 'Steals' Back the Money Lost by KelpDAO

Title: Arbitrum Poses as Hacker to Recover Stolen Funds from KelpDAO Last week, KelpDAO suffered a hack resulting in nearly $300 million in losses, marking the largest DeFi security incident this year. Approximately 30,765 ETH (worth over $70 million) remained on an Arbitrum address controlled by the attacker. In an unprecedented move, Arbitrum’s Security Council utilized its emergency authority to upgrade the Inbox bridge contract, adding a function that allowed them to impersonate the hacker’s address and initiate a transfer without access to its private key. The council’s action, approved by 9 of its 12 members, moved the stolen ETH to a frozen address in a single transaction before reverting the contract to its original state. The operation was coordinated with law enforcement, which attributed the attack to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. Community reactions are divided: some praise the recovery of funds, while others question the centralization of power, as the council can upgrade core contracts without governance votes. However, such emergency mechanisms are common among major L2s. Despite the partial recovery, over $292 million was stolen in total, with more than $100 million in bad debt on Aave and remaining funds scattered across other chains. The incident highlights escalating security challenges in DeFi, with state-sponsored hackers employing advanced tactics and L2s responding with elevated countermeasures.

marsbit2m ago

Arbitrum Pretends to Be the Hacker, 'Steals' Back the Money Lost by KelpDAO

marsbit2m ago

iQiyi Is Too Impatient

The article "iQiyi Is Too Impatient" discusses the controversy surrounding the Chinese streaming platform IQiyi's recent announcement of an "AI Actor Library" during its 2026 World Conference. IQiyi claimed over 100 actors, including well-known names like Zhang Ruoyun and Yu Hewei, had joined the initiative. CEO Gong Yu suggested AI could enable actors to "star in 14 dramas a year instead of 4" and that "live-action filming might become a world cultural heritage." The announcement quickly sparked backlash. Multiple actors named in the list issued urgent statements denying they had signed any AI-related authorization agreements. This forced IQiyi to clarify that inclusion in the library only indicated a willingness to *consider* AI projects, with separate negotiations required for any specific role. The incident, which trended on social media with hashtags like "IQiyi is crazy," is presented as a sign of the company's growing desperation. Facing intense competition from short-video platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, as well as Bilibili and Xiaohongshu, IQiyi's financial performance has weakened, with revenues declining for two consecutive years. The author argues that IQiyi is "too impatient" to tell a compelling AI story to reassure the market, especially as it pursues a listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange. The piece concludes by outlining three key "AI questions" IQiyi must answer: defining its role as a tool provider versus a content creator, balancing the "coldness" of AI with the human element audiences desire, and properly managing the interests of platforms, actors, and viewers. The core dilemma is that while AI can reduce costs and increase efficiency, it risks creating homogenized, formulaic content and devaluing human performers.

marsbit56m ago

iQiyi Is Too Impatient

marsbit56m ago

Jensen Huang Publicly Challenges Google and Amazon, Is the Chip Business Entirely Sustained by Anthropic?

In a candid interview, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang challenged competitors like Google and Amazon, admitted past strategic errors, and criticized U.S. export controls on AI chips. He framed Nvidia’s role as turning “electricity in, tokens out,” emphasizing the complexity and value of AI inference. Huang dismissed rival custom chips like Google’s TPU and Amazon’s Trainium as inflexible and niche, claiming their growth relies heavily on clients like Anthropic. He also acknowledged missing early investment opportunities in OpenAI and Anthropic. On China, Huang warned that export restrictions risk pushing the country toward self-sufficiency and could cost U.S. leadership in AI. Finally, he explained Nvidia’s acquisition of Groq as a move to serve premium, low-latency token markets. Throughout, Huang emphasized ecosystem trust and Nvidia’s central role in global AI infrastructure.

marsbit1h ago

Jensen Huang Publicly Challenges Google and Amazon, Is the Chip Business Entirely Sustained by Anthropic?

marsbit1h ago

ARK's SpaceX IPO Investment Guide: $1.75 Trillion Valuation, 95x Price-to-Sales Ratio, Where Is the Money Going?

ARK Invest, a major investor in SpaceX, provides an analysis following SpaceX's confidential IPO filing on April 1, 2026, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and up to $75 billion in funding for a Nasdaq listing around June 2026. This would be the largest IPO in history. The valuation implies a price-to-sales ratio of ~95x based on ~$18.5B in projected 2025 revenue. ARK argues this reflects future potential, not current reality. Key drivers include Starlink, with over 10M users and $20B+ in 2026 revenue, launch services which have reduced costs by ~95% since 2008, and the strategic merger with xAI in February 2026, enabling vertically integrated AI and orbital computing. ARK’s investment thesis is based on SpaceX's proven execution of ambitious goals, like reusable rockets and global satellite internet. The firm notes that significant value creation often occurs pre-IPO, and its Venture Fund offers exposure to SpaceX’s earlier private stages. Post-IPO, the fund will manage the position per standard lock-up and rebalancing processes, maintaining flexibility to reinvest in other private innovations. The analysis is based on public estimates and ARK research; the S-1 filing is not yet public. This is not investment advice.

marsbit1h ago

ARK's SpaceX IPO Investment Guide: $1.75 Trillion Valuation, 95x Price-to-Sales Ratio, Where Is the Money Going?

marsbit1h ago

Stablecoin Hype Overblown? Moody’s Says Banks Aren’t In Danger

The article discusses the legislative stalemate in the US over the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (CLARITY Act), which aims to regulate crypto assets. A key point of contention is whether stablecoins should be allowed to pay interest, with crypto companies opposing a ban and banks supporting it. Moody's analyst Abhi Srivastava states that, for now, stablecoins do not pose a significant threat to traditional banks due to existing efficient payment systems and the current prohibition on yield-bearing stablecoins. This limits their appeal for pulling deposits from banks at scale. However, with the stablecoin market cap exceeding $300 billion and growth in tokenized assets, banks could face future pressure from deposit outflows. The crypto industry warns that failure to pass the bill could lead to stricter regulatory crackdowns. Negotiations continue with little progress, despite both sides desiring a resolution.

bitcoinist2h ago

Stablecoin Hype Overblown? Moody’s Says Banks Aren’t In Danger

bitcoinist2h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片