Ethereum: Why Fundstrat sees $1.7K as a possible ETH bottom

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-02-21Last updated on 2026-02-21

Abstract

Fundstrat's head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, suggests Ethereum may be nearing or has already hit its market cycle bottom, projecting potential support levels between $1,360 and $1,770 based on historical realized price data. The realized price—average on-chain holder cost—has historically acted as a key support zone. If ETH follows the 2022 pattern, it could bottom at $1,367, while the 2025 scenario suggests a floor near $1,770. Although ETH recently dipped to $1,747, Farrell anticipates a potential 80% rally in the next 12 months if it holds above $1.3K. However, sustained recovery depends on renewed buying pressure from U.S. investors, as current negative Coinbase Premium Index readings indicate a lack of strong demand. Without U.S. ETF inflows or positive shift in sentiment, ETH may struggle to reclaim $2,000 in the near term.

Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, believes that Ethereum may be close to the market bottom if it has not already reached it.

Citing historical data linked to realized price and past cycle lows, Farrel projected that the largest altcoin may find relief around $1,360-$1,770.

Realized price is the average cost basis for on-chain holders and typically serves as a key support zone. In the past, ETH’s massive drawdowns eased right after breaking this support zone.

In 2022, ETH formed a bottom after dropping 39% below the realized price. Conversely, in Q1 2025, the altcoin rebounded after dropping 21% below its on-chain support level.

According to Farrel, if the trend repeats the 2022 pattern, it would imply a potential bottom at $1,367. On the other hand, if the 2025 pattern plays out, then the altcoin may finally bounce at $1,770.

Short-term headwinds

In December, the analyst correctly predicted that BTC would drop to $60K and ETH to $1800 earlier in 2026, noting that the market may recover in the second half of 2026.

That said, another broader market drawdown dragged ETH to a low of $1,747 on Binance. If the 2025 scenario plays out, the altcoin could already have bottomed out. But if it follows the 2022 pathway, then another 30% decline to $1.36K from the current $1.94K level could still be on the cards.

But Farrell expects an 80% rally in the next 12 months if ETH eases above $1.3K.

In the meantime, however, the overall selling from U.S. investors (including ETFs) seen in early February has eased significantly. However, they haven’t flipped to net buying yet, as indicated by the negative reading on the Coinbase Premium Index.

Historically, a strong and sustainable ETH recovery has always been supported by U.S. buying pressure. So, unless it turns positive, the ETH price may struggle to reclaim $2000 for a while.

Overall, ETH may have reached its potential level of reversal to the upside, according to Fundstrat’s Farrell, but there was still no strong demand. Should renewed U.S. spot ETH ETF inflows follow suit, maybe the altcoin may find relief above $1,300 or $1,700.

Final Summary

  • Ethereum may be close to a market cycle bottom above $1.3K if the current trend follows the 2022 pattern.
  • ETH may struggle to hold $2000 in the near term unless strong buying pressure resumes.

Related Questions

QAccording to Fundstrat's Sean Farrell, what are the two potential bottom price levels for Ethereum and which historical patterns do they correspond to?

AAccording to Sean Farrell, if the trend follows the 2022 pattern, the potential bottom is at $1,367. If it follows the 2025 pattern, the bottom is at $1,770.

QWhat is the 'realized price' and what role does it play in identifying potential market bottoms for Ethereum?

AThe realized price is the average cost basis for on-chain holders and typically serves as a key support zone. Historically, ETH's massive drawdowns have eased right after breaking below this support level.

QWhat key factor does the article identify as necessary for a strong and sustainable ETH price recovery?

AThe article states that a strong and sustainable ETH recovery has historically always been supported by U.S. buying pressure, as indicated by a positive reading on the Coinbase Premium Index.

QWhat short-term price level does the analyst suggest Ethereum may struggle to reclaim without renewed demand?

AThe analyst suggests that unless U.S. buying pressure returns, the ETH price may struggle to reclaim $2000 for a while.

QWhat significant rally does Farrell predict if Ethereum finds a bottom above $1,300?

AFarrell expects an 80% rally in the next 12 months if ETH finds a bottom and eases above $1,300.

Related Reads

Historical Data Shows Bitcoin Price Has Never Breached This Level – Will It Start Now?

Historical data reveals a consistent pattern in Bitcoin's price action: after recovering 30% from a cycle low, it has never retested that bottom. This has held true across six major cycles since 2011. The current cycle, which saw a low near $61,300 in February, is approaching this critical threshold at approximately $79,694. Bitcoin has already up about 28% and needs just a 2.7% increase to breach this historically significant level. Supporting this bullish signal, exchange reserves have hit new lows, and large investors have accumulated the most BTC in a month since 2013.

bitcoinist3h ago

Historical Data Shows Bitcoin Price Has Never Breached This Level – Will It Start Now?

bitcoinist3h ago

Why Bitcoin Still Acts Like A Risk Asset Despite Safe-Haven Claims

Bitcoin possesses inherent qualities of a safe-haven asset, such as being portable and censorship-resistant. However, it continues to trade like a risk asset, correlating with indices like the NASDAQ during periods of uncertainty. Analysts attribute this to its lack of widespread acceptance by large capital pools, a process that may take another decade. Currently, Bitcoin is showing technical weakness with a bearish market structure shift and a rejection from a monthly fair value gap, suggesting a higher probability of a breakdown and a potential move lower. The broader downside thesis remains intact unless BTC breaks out of its current pattern with strength.

bitcoinist3h ago

Why Bitcoin Still Acts Like A Risk Asset Despite Safe-Haven Claims

bitcoinist3h ago

Eight Years of Entrepreneurship Notes from a16z's AI Partner

An early generative AI entrepreneur reflects on his 8-year journey building Rosebud AI, founded in 2018—a time when the field was still called “synthetic media.” Initially experimenting with models like CycleGAN and StyleGAN, he believed AI could make creation as intuitive as playing a game. Over the years, his team launched multiple products, including the viral app TokkingHeads, which gained 2 million users, learning to design around imperfect model outputs to deliver “good enough” user experiences. The evolution from niche synthetic media to general-purpose AI infrastructure—especially after GPT-4’s release—reshaped product possibilities. Code generation matured enough by 2023 to enable text-to-game prototyping. The author emphasizes that the real differentiator now isn’t just model capability but product design, distribution, and business model innovation. Having stepped down as CEO of Rosebud AI, he joins a16z as a partner focused on investing in the frontier model stack—models, infrastructure, and tools. He remains optimistic about AI-driven progress in creative tools, coding, and scientific domains. The piece concludes with a forward-looking note: the next phase of AI will be less about what’s possible and more about how capabilities are productized and scaled in the real world.

marsbit5h ago

Eight Years of Entrepreneurship Notes from a16z's AI Partner

marsbit5h ago

How Many Tokens Away Is Yang Zhilin from the 'Moon Chasing the Light'?

The article explores the intense competition between two leading Chinese AI companies, DeepSeek and Kimi (Moon Dark Side), and the mounting pressure on Yang Zhilin, the founder of Kimi. While DeepSeek re-emerged after 15 months of silence with its powerful V4 model—boasting 1.6 trillion parameters and low-cost, long-context capabilities—Kimi has been focusing on long-context processing and multi-agent systems with its K2.6 model. Yang faces a threefold challenge: technological rivalry, commercialization pressure, and investor expectations. Despite Kimi’s high valuation (reaching $18 billion), its revenue heavily relies on a single product with low paid conversion rates, while DeepSeek’s strategic silence and open-source influence have strengthened its market position and valuation prospects, now targeting over $20 billion. Both companies reflect broader trends in China’s AI ecosystem: Kimi aims for global influence through open-source contributions and agent-based advancements, while DeepSeek prioritizes foundational innovation and hardware independence, notably shifting to Huawei’s chips. Their competition is seen as vital for China’s AI progress, with the gap between top Chinese and U.S. models narrowing to just 2.7% on the Elo rating scale. Ultimately, the article argues that this rivalry, though anxiety-inducing for leaders like Zhilin, is essential for driving innovation and solidifying China’s role in the global AI landscape.

marsbit6h ago

How Many Tokens Away Is Yang Zhilin from the 'Moon Chasing the Light'?

marsbit6h ago

TechFlow Intelligence Bureau: ChatGPT Helps Amateur Mathematician Crack 60-Year-Old Problem, CFTC Sues New York Regulator Over Coinbase and Gemini

An amateur mathematician, with the assistance of ChatGPT, has solved a combinatorial mathematics puzzle originally proposed by Hungarian mathematician Paul Erdős in the 1960s. This marks another milestone in AI-aided mathematical research, demonstrating the evolving capabilities of large language models in formal reasoning. In other AI developments, OpenAI introduced a new privacy filter tool for enterprise API usage, automatically screening sensitive data. Meanwhile, the Qwen3.6-27B model achieved 100 tokens per second on a single RTX 5090 GPU using quantization, significantly lowering the cost barrier for local AI deployment. In crypto and Web3, the U.S. CFTC sued New York’s financial regulator, challenging its oversight of Coinbase and Gemini—a first-of-its-kind federal-state regulatory clash. Following a vulnerability, KelpDAO and major DeFi protocols established a recovery fund. Tether froze $344 million in assets linked to Iran’s central bank upon U.S. Treasury request, highlighting the centralized control risks in stablecoins. Separately, Litecoin underwent a 3-hour chain reorganization to undo a privacy-layer exploit. In the U.S., former President Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to address power grid bottlenecks affecting AI data centers and dismissed the entire National Science Board, raising concerns over research independence. A retail trader gained 250% on a $600k Intel options bet amid AI-related speculation. Xiaomi announced its first performance electric vehicle, targeting rivals like Tesla. Meanwhile, iPhone users reported devices automatically reinstalling a hidden app daily, suspected to be MDM-related. A Chinese securities report noted that A-share institutional crowding has reached its second-longest streak since 2007, signaling high valuations and potential style rotation. The day’s developments reflect a dual narrative: AI is enabling unprecedented individual breakthroughs, while centralized power structures—whether governmental or corporate—are becoming more assertive, underscoring that decentralization is as much a political-economic challenge as a technical one.

marsbit6h ago

TechFlow Intelligence Bureau: ChatGPT Helps Amateur Mathematician Crack 60-Year-Old Problem, CFTC Sues New York Regulator Over Coinbase and Gemini

marsbit6h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of ETH (ETH) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions