Coinbase Expands Prediction Markets to All 50 U.S. States

TheNewsCryptoPublished on 2026-01-29Last updated on 2026-01-29

Abstract

Coinbase has expanded its prediction markets feature to all 50 U.S. states, allowing nationwide event-based trading within its app. Developed in partnership with U.S.-based platform Kalshi, the feature enables users to trade yes-or-no contracts on events like sports, politics, entertainment, and economic developments such as Federal Reserve decisions. Pricing is based on supply and demand, reflecting market sentiment. Trades can be executed with USD or USD Coin, with low minimum amounts. While Kalshi currently provides contracts and liquidity, Coinbase plans to support additional providers in the future. The move is part of Coinbase's strategy to become a comprehensive financial platform within U.S. regulatory boundaries, despite some legal challenges Kalshi has faced regarding sports-related contracts in certain states.

Coinbase has spread its wings of the prediction markets feature to users in all 50 U.S. states, offering customers nationwide access to event-based trading inside its application. The firm has officially accepted the launch on January 28, accompanying the initial launch in December that was restricted to select users.

The feature, developed with a partnership of Kalshi, a U.S.-backed prediction market platform, permits users to trade normal yes-or-no contracts associated with real events. With the amalgamation, the users of Coinbase can trade on a variety of events.

The events majorly include sports, politics, entertainment and prominent economic developments like Federal Reserve decisions. Price shift is done on the basis of supply and demand, catching how the market broadly assesses the possibility of every result.

Having a low minimum amount, trades can be done using USD or USD Coin. At rollout, Kalshi offered all contracts and liquidity. Coinbase revealed that it has planned to back additional providers in the long run.

The Legal Pushback

The markets sit with the company of current crypto and cash features, having everything within a single interface. The launch is followed by the increased tradition of prediction markets in the U.S., ignited by the increased demand for crowd-based anticipations associated with prominent events.

As they offer a flexible alternative for offshore or decentralised markets that are not liable to U.S. regulatory oversight, regulated platforms such as Kalshi have successfully captivated attention.

Coinbase formulated the expansion as part of its wider push to be an all-in-one financial platform. By amalgamating prediction markets with crypto trading, the company is seeking to broaden its product lineup while being within the regulatory boundaries of the United States.

However, Kalshi also underwent legal pushback in various states regarding sports-associated contracts; it has carried on to safeguard collaborations with prominent trading platforms.

The launch of Coinbase indicates surged confidence in regulated prediction markets, mentioning their gentle integration into main financial platforms.

Highlighted Crypto News Today:

Optimism Approves OP Token Buybacks Using Superchain Revenue

The AI Investment Landscape Is Being Reshaped: Beyond the 'Magnificent Seven', What Opportunities Lie in the Semiconductor Supply Chain?

AI Investment Map is Reshaping: Opportunities Beyond the 'Magnificent Seven' Since ChatGPT ignited the AI wave, investment initially focused on the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants dominating cloud infrastructure. However, the rise of DeepSeek and debates on AI capital expenditure effectiveness are shifting this dynamic. Investors now recognize opportunities deeper in the supply chain—the companies providing the essential "picks and shovels." Early concerns about an AI investment "arms race" and potential low returns were partly alleviated by strong Q1 earnings from cloud providers, validating robust compute demand. This has highlighted a more certain investment thesis: regardless of which AI applications ultimately win, massive capital expenditure will first fuel demand for semiconductors and related components. This "pick-and-shovel" logic has driven semiconductor ETFs to record highs. Key beneficiaries include: * **Memory Chipmakers (e.g., SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron)**: High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is a critical bottleneck for AI training. * **Photonics Companies**: Crucial for high-speed data transfer within AI data centers. * **The Broader "AI-11" Semiconductor Ecosystem**: This encompasses foundries & lithography (TSMC, ASML), logic & custom chips (AMD, Broadcom, Intel, Marvell), and enterprise storage (SanDisk, Western Digital). Every dollar of AI infrastructure spending flows through this chain. While the "Magnificent Seven" remain dominant in market size, their earnings growth premium over the rest of the S&P 500 ("S&P 493") is narrowing. Market attention and marginal investment are shifting towards the expanding semiconductor supply chain. The investment narrative is evolving from "betting on the ultimate AI winner" to "investing in the certainty of the infrastructure build-out." Understanding this shift from the demand side to the supply side is key to identifying future AI investment opportunities.

marsbit2m ago

The AI Investment Landscape Is Being Reshaped: Beyond the 'Magnificent Seven', What Opportunities Lie in the Semiconductor Supply Chain?

marsbit2m ago

As Circle, the First Stablecoin Stock, Resolves to Shed Its Label

Circle, the "stablecoin stock," reported its Q1 2026 results, showing a 20% YoY revenue increase to $694M despite a 15% drop in net profit due to post-IPO stock-based compensation and operational investments. The company's USDC stablecoin hit a record $770B in circulation with on-chain transaction volume soaring 263% YoY. However, market share slightly declined amid competition. The key market catalyst was the announcement of a $222M pre-sale for the ARC token of Circle's new institutional-focused Layer 1 blockchain, Arc, valuing the network at $30B. Led by a16z, the round included major investors like BlackRock and Apollo. CEO Jeremy Allaire positioned this as a strategic pivot from a stablecoin issuer to a broader internet platform and "financial OS" company. Circle also launched "Agent Stack" products for AI agent payments using USDC. While reaffirming its full-year 2026 guidance, the company noted the financial impact of Arc is not yet included, leaving room for future upside. Following the report, CRCL's stock surged nearly 16%. Wall Street analysts remain largely bullish on the long-term narrative, though some caution about near-term execution risks and the current immaterial contribution of new initiatives like Arc. The focus is now on Arc's mainnet launch, ARC token adoption, and evolving U.S. crypto regulation.

链捕手19m ago

As Circle, the First Stablecoin Stock, Resolves to Shed Its Label

链捕手19m ago

600 People, $66 Billion: The First Major Cash-Out in the Era of Large Models

The first systematic "big cash-out" of the AI era occurred in October 2025, when over 600 current and former OpenAI employees sold a total of $6.6 billion in shares via a secondary market. Approximately 75 individuals maxed out a $30 million per-person sale limit, while around 525 others cashed out an average of $8.3 million each. This event, exceeding the scale of any 2024 US IPO, functioned as a "shadow IPO." It marked a radical departure from the traditional Silicon Valley path of waiting for a public listing, instead allowing employees to convert equity to cash after just two years of tenure—a direct retention tool in a fiercely competitive talent market where rivals like Meta have offered packages worth hundreds of millions. This massive liquidity event presents a dual-edged sword for OpenAI. While it helps retain talent, it also risks triggering a brain drain as newly wealthy employees may depart. Furthermore, it creates a dilemma for those who sold: they forfeited potential future gains as the company's valuation soared from $400 billion to $852 billion within months. In stark contrast, employees at rival Anthropic demonstrated greater reluctance to sell during their own secondary offering. The financial narratives of the two labs also diverge sharply. OpenAI, while achieving over $20 billion in annualized revenue by 2025, faces massive projected losses (up to $14 billion in 2026), a long path to cash flow positivity, and significant revenue-sharing payments to Microsoft. Anthropic reports rapid revenue growth, improving gross margins, and a faster path to profitability. OpenAI's trajectory is thus balanced precariously between skyrocketing valuation based on funding narratives and the pressures of sustained financial losses post-cash-out. The event underscores that the AI race has evolved into a capital and human experiment, where immense wealth crystallizes the complex calculations of greed, fear, and ambition within the industry.

marsbit22m ago

600 People, $66 Billion: The First Major Cash-Out in the Era of Large Models

marsbit22m ago

NVIDIA Begins Adding Soap to the Bubble

NVIDIA is taking on a dual role: not just as a leading chip supplier, but as a massive capital allocator across the entire AI supply chain. In 2026, the company has committed over $40 billion in investments within five months, targeting everything from optical fiber manufacturing and data center operations to foundational AI model development. This investment spree, described as a systematic "sprinkler" approach, primarily funds companies that are major buyers of NVIDIA's own GPUs. Critics, including analysts from Goldman Sachs, label this a "circular revenue" loop—comparable to a supplier financing a customer to buy more of its products. A prominent example is NVIDIA's investment in OpenAI, which is expected to generate around $13 billion in revenue for NVIDIA, much of which may be reinvested back into OpenAI. While CEO Jensen Huang dismisses the "circular financing" critique as "absurd," arguing the investments are confidence votes in long-term generational shifts, some analysts express discomfort. They note that while investments in critical supply chain components like optics are strategically sound, funding new cloud providers like CoreWeave feels like "pre-paying for your own GPUs." The strategy carries significant risks. If the AI investment cycle turns, the market may question how much demand is genuine versus artificially sustained by NVIDIA's own balance sheet. Despite posting record-breaking earnings—$215.9 billion in annual revenue and $120 billion in net profit for FY2026—NVIDIA's stock fell after its report, signaling that "beating expectations" may no longer be enough to assure investors about the duration of the AI spending boom. The article concludes that while a bubble isn't necessarily a fraud, NVIDIA's actions resemble adding soap to a bubble—making it appear more robust and durable. This creates a complex scenario requiring extreme冷静 from investors to distinguish between real structural growth and financial engineering.

marsbit39m ago

marsbit39m ago

Short Positions Have Been Squeezed Out: Will the Next Leg of the U.S. Stock AI Rally Continue in Seoul?

"Short Squeeze Exhausted: Will the Next Leg of the AI Rally Continue in Seoul?" A Nomura report suggests the US AI stock rally, which saw the S&P 500 rise ~16.6% in 28 days largely driven by 10 key stocks, may be pausing. The fuel from short covering, CTA fund positioning, and volatility-control strategies is nearing its limit. For the rally to continue, new momentum from retail and sentiment-driven FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) is needed. South Korea's market provided a potential answer on the very day the report was published. The KOSPI index surged 4.32%, triggering a buy-side circuit breaker, led by massive gains in chip giants SK Hynix (+11.98%) and Samsung. This surge is characterized by retail "hynix FOMO" and overseas funds precisely buying into AI themes via chip-focused ETFs, shifting from broad Korean market ETFs. The Korean rally is a high-beta extension of the US AI capital expenditure story, as major cloud providers plan massive infrastructure spending, directly benefiting memory chip leaders. However, this linkage also implies vulnerability. The sustainability of this next leg depends on whether US tech stocks correct, the trajectory of US inflation (with upcoming CPI data key), and geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Seoul has emerged as the new epicenter of the AI trade, but its fate remains tied to these broader macro and market dynamics.

marsbit44m ago

Short Positions Have Been Squeezed Out: Will the Next Leg of the U.S. Stock AI Rally Continue in Seoul?

marsbit44m ago

Trading

Spot

Futures