Why Grayscale thinks Bitcoin will ignore the 4-year cycle this time
Grayscale argues that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle, historically driven by halving-induced supply shocks and retail speculation, is losing its dominance. Key reasons include the diminishing relative impact of each halving as more supply enters circulation and a fundamental market shift toward institutional capital from ETFs, corporations, and professional funds. This new dynamic, supported by Glassnode data, results in more controlled price appreciation, lower volatility, and corrections that resemble typical bull-market pullbacks rather than cycle-ending crashes. Furthermore, Bitcoin's price is now more sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates, regulatory developments, and global liquidity than to its internal halving calendar. While some analysts still see merit in the cycle due to Bitcoin's fixed issuance, Grayscale emphasizes that structural changes are creating a more mature, macro-linked asset.
cointelegraph20m ago
