Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is Stablecoin Leader CRCL Worth Buying? Why Can't High-Growth Earnings Drive the Stock Price?

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-12-09Last updated on 2025-12-09

Abstract

"Circle (NYSE: CRCL), the issuer of USDC, has sparked intense debate in the crypto community following its Q3 2025 earnings report. Despite reporting strong growth—revenue up 66% YoY to $740 million and net income of $214 million, driven by a 108% increase in USDC circulation—its stock price fell significantly post-earnings and remains near its IPO price of $64. The core disagreement revolves around Circle’s business model and sustainability. Critics, including Jiang Zhuorer, argue that Circle operates like a bank, earning primarily through interest on reserve assets (mainly U.S. Treasuries), but is highly vulnerable to interest rate cuts. They highlight that ~60% of revenue is paid to distributors like Coinbase, leaving thin margins that could turn negative in a low-rate environment. They also warn of competition from traditional financial giants like JPMorgan and potential policy changes. Proponents, such as BTCdayu and qinbafrank, counter that Circle is building a long-term, network-driven infrastructure play. They compare it to Amazon or JD.com, arguing that current profit-sharing is a strategic cost to achieve scale, compliance advantage, and eventual market dominance in a winner-take-all industry. They believe USDC’s合规 (compliance) edge and institutional trust will drive adoption to multi-trillion dollars, outweighing interest rate risks. Short-term concerns include significant post-IPO lockup expirations adding selling pressure, and structural barriers like U.S. tax...

Original / Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author / DingDang (@XiaMiPP)

Recently, the Chinese X community has sparked a fierce debate around "Is Circle (NYSE: CRCL) worth buying?", with the court of public opinion clearly split into two major camps. One side sees it as a value stock with significant institutional红利 (dividends/benefits) in the stablecoin赛道 (track/sector), while the other frequently questions the fragility of its profit model and potential cyclical risks. The交锋 (clash/exchange) of views reflects the vastly different judgment logics and expectation levels the current market holds for innovative projects.

Based on a large amount of public discussion and rational analysis within the community, Odaily Planet Daily梳理 (sorts out/compiles) the core arguments and reasoning paths of both sides, attempting to present the deeper structural disagreements behind the controversy beyond emotions and stances.

Background Brief

Since its listing on the NYSE on June 5, 2025, Circle (NYSE: CRCL) has experienced a complete, typical price curve of a "narrative-driven asset": from an IPO price of $64, it quickly rose to a阶段性 (phase/period) high of $298.9 in a short time, then gradually declined, and around November 20, 2025, returned near its IPO price, touching a low of $64.9, recently rebounding to around $83.9.

On November 12, 2025, CRCL announced its first full quarterly (Q3) earnings report post-IPO: total revenue of $740 million, a year-on-year increase of 66%; net profit of $214 million, EPS $0.64, significantly exceeding market expectations. The most crucial driving factor came from the surge in USDC circulation from $35.5 billion in the same period last year to $73.7 billion (+108%),以及 (as well as) the rise in reserve asset yields in a high-interest-rate environment.

However, the stock price fell 11.4% on the first day after the earnings release and累计 (accumulatively) fell 20% over the week. Key pain points included high分销费用 (distribution fees) ($448 million, 60% of revenue), operating expenses eroding profits, a high proportion of non-recurring income (71% from fair value changes in investments),以及 selling pressure from the lock-up expiration. According to SEC filings, the IPO lock-up period ended after the Q3 earnings report, with a potentially huge number of shares becoming eligible for sale starting November 14.

围绕 (Surrounding/Regarding) these facts, Odaily Planet Daily has compiled the differing views, such as those from @0xNing0x, Jiang Zhuo'er, @Phyrex_Ni, @BTCdayu, @qinbafrank, for readers to compare and analyze.

I. Is the Profit Model Sustainable: Is CRCL a Bank or Financial Infrastructure?

Jiang Zhuo'er believes that CRCL's profit source is essentially "earning the interest rate spread": users exchange money for USDC, Circle allocates these funds to low-risk assets like U.S. Treasuries, earns interest income, then deducts operating costs and channel profit-sharing.

But the problem is, CRCL's profit distribution structure is extremely unfavorable to itself. According to the agreement, about 61% of the profit must be shared with Coinbase, and Coinbase also holds a 22% share of USDC, with 100% of this portion's收益 (收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益收益极难在短时间内复制 Circle 所已经完成的合规路径、渠道网络与机构信任积累。

Related Questions

QWhat are the main arguments for and against investing in Circle (CRCL) according to the article?

AThe main arguments against investing include concerns over its profit-sharing model with Coinbase (which takes about 61% of profits), high dependency on interest rates from reserve assets making it vulnerable in a rate-cutting cycle, potential competition from traditional financial giants like JPMorgan, and short-term selling pressure from the lock-up period expiration. The main arguments for investing are that CRCL is strategically sacrificing short-term profits to build scale, network effects, and user trust; it is positioned to benefit from future stablecoin adoption and regulatory clarity; and its compliance and partnerships form a strong moat that could lead to long-term dominance in the compliant stablecoin space.

QHow does Circle's (CRCL) profit model work, and why is it considered controversial?

ACircle's profit model primarily relies on earning interest from the reserve assets (like U.S. Treasuries) backing its USDC stablecoin. The controversy stems from the high distribution costs, where approximately 61% of the profits are shared with distribution partners like Coinbase. Critics argue this leaves CRCL with a very small portion of the actual profits, making the model fragile, especially if interest rates decline significantly. Supporters view the profit-sharing as a strategic cost to acquire market share and build a dominant network effect in the stablecoin industry.

QWhat is the impact of interest rate changes on Circle's (CRCL) profitability?

AInterest rate changes have a significant impact on CRCL's profitability. The company's income is highly dependent on the yield from its reserve assets. In a high-interest-rate environment, this generates substantial revenue. However, critics warn that a transition to a rate-cutting cycle could severely compress CRCL's profit margins. If rates fall to around 2% while operational costs remain near 1%, the model could become unprofitable after accounting for distribution partner shares. Supporters argue that growth in USDC's circulation size could outweigh the negative impact of gradually falling rates.

QWhat are the key competitive threats to Circle (CRCL) and USDC mentioned in the debate?

AThe key competitive threats discussed are twofold. First, traditional financial giants like JPMorgan entering the stablecoin market with their substantial resources, credit backing, and potential to use subsidies to gain market share. Second, the potential for regulatory changes that could erode Circle's current advantages or for competitors to find ways to bypass existing restrictions on paying interest to users. Proponents of CRCL counter that its deep compliance, established trust, network effects, and open-network design create a significant moat that closed-loop institutional solutions from banks cannot easily overcome.

QWhat short-term trading concern is highlighted regarding CRCL's stock price?

AA major short-term trading concern highlighted is the significant selling pressure from the expiration of the IPO lock-up period. The lock-up for insiders, founders, employees, and early investors ended after the Q3 earnings report, potentially releasing a large number of shares into the market. This sudden increase in supply creates a risk of downward pressure on the stock price in the near term, leading some traders to adopt a wait-and-see approach until this uncertainty is resolved.

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Crypto Crime Hit Hard: $700 Million Frozen By DOJ Strike Force

A US law enforcement task force has frozen over $700 million in cryptocurrency linked to investment scams targeting Americans. The operation, which involved cooperation from crypto exchanges and legal processes, also took down more than 500 fraudulent websites and a Telegram channel used to recruit victims. Two Chinese nationals were named in arrest warrants for operating a scam compound in Burma. In a related move, the US State Department announced a $10 million reward for information disrupting scam centers in Burma. Singaporean authorities, alongside major crypto exchanges and analytics firms, also prevented nearly $3 million in losses through a parallel operation. The scale of cybercrime remains vast, with the FBI reporting over $20 billion in losses in 2025.

bitcoinist21m ago

Crypto Crime Hit Hard: $700 Million Frozen By DOJ Strike Force

bitcoinist21m ago

Toncoin Fees To Drop 6x As Network Moves Toward Feeless Transactions

Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced that the Toncoin (TON) network will reduce transaction fees by six times in one week, lowering the cost to just 0.00039 TON (approximately $0.0005). This fee reduction is part of the "Make TON Great Again" (MTONGA) roadmap and will remain fixed regardless of network congestion. The update follows a recent upgrade that made the network 10 times faster and transactions nearly instant. Durov also hinted that future steps aim to make most transactions fully feeless. Although Telegram discontinued formal involvement with TON due to regulatory issues, Durov remains a strong supporter. Currently, Toncoin is trading around $1.30, down over 8% in the past week.

bitcoinist51m ago

Toncoin Fees To Drop 6x As Network Moves Toward Feeless Transactions

bitcoinist51m ago

a16z: AI's 'Amnesia', Can Continuous Learning Cure It?

The article "a16z: AI's 'Amnesia' – Can Continual Learning Cure It?" explores the limitations of current large language models (LLMs), which, like the protagonist in the film *Memento*, are trapped in a perpetual present—unable to form new memories after training. While methods like in-context learning (ICL), retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and external scaffolding (e.g., chat history, prompts) provide temporary solutions, they fail to enable true internalization of new knowledge. The authors argue that compression—the core of learning during training—is halted at deployment, preventing models from generalizing, discovering novel solutions (e.g., mathematical proofs), or handling adversarial scenarios. The piece introduces *continual learning* as a critical research direction to address this, categorizing approaches into three paths: 1. **Context**: Scaling external memory via longer context windows, multi-agent systems, and smarter retrieval. 2. **Modules**: Using pluggable adapters or external memory layers for specialization without full retraining. 3. **Weights**: Enabling parameter updates through sparse training, test-time training, meta-learning, distillation, and reinforcement learning from feedback. Challenges include catastrophic forgetting, safety risks, and auditability, but overcoming these could unlock models that learn iteratively from experience. The conclusion emphasizes that while context-based methods are effective, true breakthroughs require models to compress new information into weights post-deployment, moving from mere retrieval to genuine learning.

marsbit1h ago

a16z: AI's 'Amnesia', Can Continuous Learning Cure It?

marsbit1h ago

Can a Hair Dryer Earn $34,000? Deciphering the Reflexivity Paradox in Prediction Markets

An individual manipulated a weather sensor at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport with a portable heat source, causing a Polymarket weather market to settle at 22°C and earning $34,000. This incident highlights a fundamental issue in prediction markets: when a market aims to reflect reality, it also incentivizes participants to influence that reality. Prediction markets operate on two layers: platform rules (what outcome counts as a win) and data sources (what actually happened). While most focus on rules, the real vulnerability lies in the data source. If reality is recorded through a specific source, influencing that source directly affects market settlement. The article categorizes markets by their vulnerability: 1. **Single-point physical data sources** (e.g., weather stations): Easily manipulated through physical interference. 2. **Insider information markets** (e.g., MrBeast video details): Insiders like team members use non-public information to trade. Kalshi fined a剪辑师 $20,000 for insider trading. 3. **Actor-manipulated markets** (e.g., Andrew Tate’s tweet counts): The subject of the market can control the outcome. Evidence suggests Tate’sociated accounts coordinated to profit. 4. **Individual-action markets** (e.g., WNBA disruptions): A single person can execute an event to profit from their pre-placed bets. Kalshi and Polymarket handle these issues differently. Kalshi enforces strict KYC, publicly penalizes insider trading, and reports to regulators. Polymarket, with its anonymous wallet-based system, has historically been more permissive, arguing that insider information improves market accuracy. However, it cooperated with authorities in the "Van Dyke case," where a user traded on classified government information. The core paradox is reflexivity: prediction markets are designed to discover truth, but their financial incentives can distort reality. The more valuable a prediction becomes, the more likely participants are to influence the event itself. The market ceases to be a mirror of reality and instead shapes it.

marsbit2h ago

Can a Hair Dryer Earn $34,000? Deciphering the Reflexivity Paradox in Prediction Markets

marsbit2h ago

Analyst Reveals Accumulation Level For Dogecoin Before It Rallies To $2

A crypto analyst, Crypto Patel, predicts that Dogecoin (DOGE) could rally to $2, despite currently trading below $0.10. The analyst identifies a key accumulation zone between $0.07 and $0.09, where DOGE has repeatedly tested support without breaking down. Based on a bi-weekly chart using Elliott Wave theory, DOGE is in a Wave 4 consolidation phase within a descending channel. A bounce from this support is expected to trigger a Wave 5 rally, projecting a 2,767% surge toward $2. Price targets are set sequentially at $0.50, $1, and $2, with a stop-loss below $0.048. For a bullish trend reversal, DOGE must break above the $0.10 resistance level, which was recently rejected in April. Analysts emphasize that market conditions and a confirmed higher high are critical for the projected uptrend.

bitcoinist2h ago

Analyst Reveals Accumulation Level For Dogecoin Before It Rallies To $2

bitcoinist2h ago

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Welcome to HTX.com! We've made purchasing Threshold Network Token (T) simple and convenient. Follow our step-by-step guide to embark on your crypto journey.Step 1: Create Your HTX AccountUse your email or phone number to sign up for a free account on HTX. Experience a hassle-free registration journey and unlock all features.Get My AccountStep 2: Go to Buy Crypto and Choose Your Payment MethodCredit/Debit Card: Use your Visa or Mastercard to buy Threshold Network Token (T) instantly.Balance: Use funds from your HTX account balance to trade seamlessly.Third Parties: We've added popular payment methods such as Google Pay and Apple Pay to enhance convenience.P2P: Trade directly with other users on HTX.Over-the-Counter (OTC): We offer tailor-made services and competitive exchange rates for traders.Step 3: Store Your Threshold Network Token (T)After purchasing your Threshold Network Token (T), store it in your HTX account. Alternatively, you can send it elsewhere via blockchain transfer or use it to trade other cryptocurrencies.Step 4: Trade Threshold Network Token (T)Easily trade Threshold Network Token (T) on HTX's spot market. Simply access your account, select your trading pair, execute your trades, and monitor in real-time. We offer a user-friendly experience for both beginners and seasoned traders.

10.7k Total ViewsPublished 2024.03.29Updated 2025.03.21

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