BTC Market Pulse: Week 08

insights.glassnodePublished on 2026-02-16Last updated on 2026-02-16

Abstract

Bitcoin market conditions show tentative signs of stabilization after a deeply oversold period, though the overall sentiment remains defensive. Momentum has improved slightly, with reduced sell-side pressure and moderated ETF outflows. However, trading activity has declined significantly, and profitability for ETF holders is near cost basis, making them sensitive to volatility. Derivatives markets continue to reflect risk-off behavior, with leverage unwinding and funding rates cooling. Options markets suggest near-term risk may be underpriced. On-chain metrics indicate subdued network activity, negative capital flows, and persistent unrealized losses, aligning with a late-stage correction or early accumulation phase. While downside pressure has eased, a sustained recovery depends on renewed spot demand and broader market participation. Risk remains across spot, derivatives, and on-chain indicators, with cautious and selective investor behavior prevailing.

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Overview

Momentum has improved from deeply oversold conditions, signalling easing downside pressure and tentative buyer re-engagement. However, momentum remains far from a “risk-on” regime, and participation has thinned meaningfully, suggesting the move is stabilisation-led rather than conviction-driven.
Spot conditions show early signs of moderation, but remain defensive. Aggressive sell-side pressure has cooled, and ETF outflows have eased, reducing a key headwind. That said, trading activity has dropped materially and profitability for ETF holders has compressed back toward cost basis, leaving this cohort more sensitive to volatility and prone to derisk into rallies.

Derivatives markets continue to lean risk-off. Leverage has been unwinding, funding has cooled as traders step back from paying for long exposure, and perpetual flows remain sell-dominant despite improvement. Options positioning is steady, but implied volatility has slipped below realized, suggesting near-term risk may be underpriced even as downside hedging demand only marginally relaxes.

On-chain activity remains subdued. Network engagement, economic throughput, and fee pressure have all cooled into weak conditions, consistent with a quieter market phase. Capital flows remain negative and unrealized losses still dominate, aligning with a late-stage correction or early accumulation backdrop where participants remain cautious and selective.

Overall, conditions remain defensive across spot, derivatives, ETFs, and on-chain indicators. While sell pressure appears to be moderating, participation and capital flows remain weak, leverage is still being reduced, and risk may be underpriced in options markets. A durable recovery still depends on renewed spot demand capable of sustaining price beyond the recent rebound zone.

Off-Chain Indicators

On-Chain Indicators

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Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.

Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies. 

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Related Questions

QWhat is the overall market sentiment according to the Week 08 BTC Market Pulse report?

AThe overall market conditions remain defensive across spot, derivatives, ETFs, and on-chain indicators. While sell pressure is moderating, participation and capital flows are weak, leverage is being reduced, and risk may be underpriced. A durable recovery depends on renewed spot demand.

QHow have ETF flows and holder profitability changed recently?

AETF outflows have eased, reducing a key headwind. However, profitability for ETF holders has compressed back toward cost basis, making this cohort more sensitive to volatility and prone to derisk into rallies.

QWhat is the current state of derivatives markets as described in the report?

ADerivatives markets continue to lean risk-off. Leverage has been unwinding, funding has cooled as traders step back from paying for long exposure, and perpetual flows remain sell-dominant. Options implied volatility has slipped below realized, suggesting near-term risk may be underpriced.

QWhat does the report indicate about on-chain activity and capital flows?

AOn-chain activity remains subdued with cooled network engagement, economic throughput, and fee pressure. Capital flows remain negative and unrealized losses still dominate, aligning with a late-stage correction or early accumulation backdrop where participants remain cautious.

QWhere can readers access the full detailed report mentioned in the article?

AReaders can access the full report in PDF format by clicking the 'Access PDF' link provided in the article content.

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