Bitcoin slips as Trump raises tariffs to 15%, but recovery is still possible

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-02-22Last updated on 2026-02-22

Abstract

Bitcoin's price declined following former U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of an immediate 15% global tariff hike on February 21st. Although BTC briefly approached $68,000 around the time of the news, it soon retreated, along with Ethereum and broader altcoin markets. Analysts attribute the drop to a stronger U.S. dollar and shifting interest rate expectations, with crypto acting as a high-beta liquidity indicator. Market sentiment worsened, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index falling to "extreme fear" levels. However, historical analysis suggests a potential recovery. Economist Timothy Peterson noted that in similar past conditions, Bitcoin traded higher 88% of the time ten months later, with average returns of 82%. He projects a long-term price target of around $122,000, indicating that the current downturn may be a temporary panic rather than a lasting decline.

After U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff move, the lights just turned off. Bitcoin [BTC] tried to stay calm but couldn’t.

What happened?

President Trump announced on the 21st of February that global tariffs would rise to 15% with immediate effect.

Bitcoin briefly pushed higher toward the $68K mark in the hours around the announcement, but the move didn’t last.

Ethereum [ETH] also turned lower, while TOTAL3 (which tracks the total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH) dipped about 0.29%. There’s weakness across the altcoin board.

About the same, Wenny Cai, COO at SynFutures, told AMBCrypto,

“Crypto is reacting like a high-beta liquidity proxy. Bitcoin slipping into the mid-$60Ks isn’t just low sentiment. It’s what happens when positioning meets a stronger dollar and less forgiving rates expectations.”

The tariff hike followed a court decision limiting Trump’s use of emergency powers, though he cited other trade laws to justify the increase.

Critics, including attorney Adam Cochran, argued those laws restricted how long and how widely such tariffs can be applied.

It’s not as bad as it looks

Sentiment has dropped, with the Fear and Greed Index falling to levels of “extreme fear” at press time. Investors are pulling back, expecting more downside.

Cai added,

“Markets are digesting a more hawkish read-through from the latest Federal Reserve minutes... Equities have softened and the bid has moved back toward cash-like instruments and short-duration treasuries.”

But one look at the numbers will tell you that these moments haven’t always lasted.

Economist Timothy Peterson recently noted in an X post that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin is hopeful.

According to his analysis, which tracks performance since 2011, when at least half of the past two years were positive, Bitcoin went on to trade higher 10 months later about 88% of the time.

On average, returns during those periods reached as high as 82%.

Peterson believes that Bitcoin could climb significantly from current levels, potentially reaching around $122,000 over time. So, while fear is dominating the market right now, there may yet be light at the end of the tunnel.

Final Summary

Bitcoin price slipped after Trump’s 15% tariff shock, but BTC has risen 88% of the time in similar setups.
With Crypto Fear & Greed at 14, this dip could just be panic.

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