Bitcoin could go ‘sub-$50K if quantum isn’t solved by 2028: Capriole

cointelegraphPublished on 2025-12-17Last updated on 2025-12-17

Abstract

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, warns that Bitcoin could fall below $50,000 by 2028 if it is not made quantum-resistant. He argues that quantum computing poses a serious threat to Bitcoin's security by potentially exposing private keys and enabling theft of funds. While some critics believe the risk is overhyped and distant, Edwards insists the threat is imminent and that Bitcoin must upgrade to post-quantum encryption by 2026 to avoid a severe bear market. He emphasizes that, unlike traditional finance, Bitcoin transactions are irreversible, making it a more urgent target. Others, like Michael Saylor, have downplayed these concerns as exaggerated.

Charles Edwards, the founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole, warns that Bitcoin could head well under $50,000 if it isn’t quantum-resistant by 2028.

Quantum computing’s potential threat to the crypto industry has long been debated and is considered an upcoming inflection point. More advanced computers that could break encryption have been theorized as having the capability to reveal user keys, expose sensitive data and user funds to bad actors.

The deadline is generally considered to be years away; however, in an X post on Wednesday, Edwards predicts it could be as soon as 2028, and if the industry doesn’t move fast enough, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could plummet.

Source: Charles Edwards

“Starting to think we will just need a huge bear market to wash out the idiots who think the Quantum threat to Bitcoin is a joke, and to incentivize the maxis into taking action to upgrade the network,” he said.

“If we haven’t deployed a fix by 2028, I expect Bitcoin will be sub $50K and continue to fall until it’s fixed.”

Quantum patch rollout needs to be in 2026

Critics argue the threat posed by quantum computers is overblown because the technology is still decades away from being viable, and banking giants and other traditional targets will be cracked long before Bitcoin.

However, Edwards has long argued the threat is more imminent, that Bitcoin will be “first on the Quantum,” chopping block because most banks and institutions are already migrating to post-quantum encryption and fraudulent transactions can be wound back or blocked.

Source: Charles Edwards

“We have to fix this next year, or bon voyage enjoy the biggest Bitcoin bear market in history. FTX will look like a cakewalk,” Edwards added.

Bitcoin OG Willy Woo suggested last month that a way to keep your Bitcoin safe until there’s a solution to the quantum Bitcoin threat is to hold Bitcoin in a SegWit wallet for around seven years.

Meanwhile, in July, Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor downplayed concerns over quantum computing’s impact on Bitcoin, calling it a marketing ploy to pump quantum-branded tokens.

Magazine: Big questions: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?

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