Analysts at Bernstein are positive on stablecoin issuer Circle, believing that a new growth cycle for $USDC could significantly support the company over the next 12 months.
In a research note published on Monday, Bernstein analysts stated that $USDC is showing signs of a "digital dollar reflation" — as the firm termed the process. Over seven days, the supply of $USDC grew by approximately $2 billion, ending a six-month period of stagnation or slowing growth. Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating for Circle (CRCL) and a $140 price target, implying roughly 60% upside from current levels. Over the past month, Circle shares have risen by about 40%.
According to Bernstein's assessment, the next phase of stablecoin growth could be supported by several factors: renewed momentum in crypto markets, increased regulatory clarity in the US, tokenized capital markets, and the growing use of stablecoins for payments. The analysts also pointed to early signs of AI-powered agents using stablecoins for payments.
$USDC remains the second-largest USD-backed stablecoin by market capitalization and lags significantly behind Tether's USDT. However, it has significantly strengthened its position in terms of transactional activity volume. According to Bernstein, $USDC's share of adjusted stablecoin transaction volume has grown from about 40% in 2025 to over 60% since the beginning of 2026. By this metric, $USDC has overtaken USDT.
Stablecoin transaction volume has increased significantly this year. Source: Bernstein
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Circle's Volatile Path Since IPO
Since the company went public in June 2025, Circle's stock has been highly volatile. The stablecoin issuer set its share price at $31 and raised approximately $1.1 billion in its initial public offering. After a sharp rally in the first months of trading, the stock returned to roughly the IPO price by November 2025, as a broader downturn in the crypto market weighed on public companies in the sector.
In the last quarter, Circle reported revenue of $701 million and net income of $48 million — both figures increased compared to the previous year.
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