The military conflict between the U.S. and Iran began on February 28, 2026, and since then, military exercises have continued, and ceasefire agreements have been violated. The war has damaged the global economy, causing a sharp spike in crude oil prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway is a maritime route through which an estimated 20% of global oil consumption passes.
Thus, due to military clashes and the closure or significant restriction of this maritime route for the past 178 days, the global economy is experiencing serious turmoil. The war has caused significant volatility in all asset classes. The last ceasefire, which took effect on June 17, is no longer in force, so reports of a possible new agreement would be positive news.
Unnamed Sources from Pakistan and Iran Claim Ceasefire Is Already Prepared
On Tuesday, the Russian agency "RIA Novosti" reported that unnamed sources from Pakistan and Iran disclosed information about a prospective ceasefire. The informants told the agency that Iran and the U.S. "agreed to a ceasefire," adding that the agreement provides for "free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz." These reports emerged against the backdrop of Iran and Oman announcing details of a joint project they are discussing to ensure safe navigation free of mines.
At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that American forces have already cleared all mines in this waterway, and the Navy will destroy any newly placed mines. Trump wrote on Truth Social:
"I have just been informed by the U.S. Navy that all mines have been removed and/or detonated in the international waters of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has been told that any vessel or boat laying new mines will be immediately and systematically destroyed."
Oil Prices Fell, Stocks Rose, Bitcoin and Gold Remained Stable
Oil prices fell on the news reported by RIA Novosti: Brent crude dropped to $85.95, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell to $81.64. American stocks performed well on Tuesday: the four main Wall Street stock indexes ended the day with positive momentum.
According to data, the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) rose to 26,151.30, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) jumped to 53,577.40. The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) recorded a gain to 7,677.28, and the NYSE Composite (NYA) rose to 24,768.65 by the close of the trading session at 4:00 PM and during after-hours trading. Precious metal prices showed moderate gains: gold was priced at $4,665 per ounce, and silver at $68.93.
The price of Bitcoin fluctuated between $78,750 and $79,500 per unit, losing about 0.4% by the close of Wall Street but gaining 21.8% over the week. The market capitalization of the leading crypto asset was $1.583 trillion, representing 58% of the total crypto economy's value of $2.73 trillion. Bitcoin's price increase comes as market watchers monitor the next steps of the U.S. Treasury Department and Secretary Scott Bessent.
The Loudest Advertisement for a Neutral Settlement Asset
In addition to discussions regarding the buyback of long-term bonds, which Bessent mentioned last week, this week he noted that "the largest financial attack in history" would be launched against Iran. Bitcoin proponents also viewed this as a positive signal.
"The Treasury openly using dollar channels as a weapon against an adversary just days after openly regulating its own bond market is the loudest advertisement for neutral settlement assets this system has ever created," wrote one X user. Others suggested that under financial pressure, Iranian citizens might turn to Bitcoin.
Given all the favorable factors that have recently surrounded BTC, a legitimate and long-term ceasefire between Washington and Tehran would be an additional bonus.
