Canadian-based mining tycoon Frank Giustra believes Bitcoin could still fall further and offer a better buying opportunity than its current level of $88,000.
When one user implored him to get some BTC just in case it explodes in the future, he said he would wait for a better discount. He added,
“If the Bitcoin treasury companies get into trouble, there will be an unwinding, and Bitcoin will trade a lot lower. If I am wrong, it won’t change my life.”
The businessman is one of the bears in 2026, based on his thesis that BTC corporate treasuries would soon unwind.
In fact, he took a swipe at former White House executive Bo Hines for calling BTC short sellers “fools.” He retorted that “wanting to avoid gambling is not exactly foolish.”
Will BTC treasuries unwind in 2026?
At press time, Bitcoin treasuries, led by Strategy’s massive 672,497 BTC coins, accounted for 4.9% of the total supply (1.035 million coins). These public companies are the second second-largest holders after ETFs (exchange-traded funds), which control 7% of the overall supply.
It is true that the treasury firms may face unwinds amid two risk factors. First, the potential exclusion from the MSCI index which could force automatic redemption and sell-offs.
Currently, the prediction site Polymarket predicts a 75% chance of the MSCI Index delisting occurring by Q1 2026.
The second risk factor is compressed mNAV (valuation multiples that track the value of crypto holdings to the underlying company’s assets). If the mNAV drops below 1, the firms are forced to either raise debt or liquidate BTC for share buybacks to boost the metric.
Already, most BTC treasuries’ mNAVs are trading at a discount, and a likely MSCI delisting could exacerbate the situation.
Is the BTC treasury risk overblown?
However, it won’t move markets even if the firms unwind, according to Grayscale. In its 2026 projection, the asset manager noted that Strategy built a reserve fund to avoid liquidating its BTC holdings. It added,
“These vehicles (treasury firms) are unlikely to be a major source of new demand for tokens or a major source of selling pressure in 2026, in our view.”
Even the market expectation that Strategy would dump its BTC was below 30% at press time. Additionally, there is already a push for mergers among distressed treasury firms, such as Semler Scientific and Strive.
That being said, renowned BTC trader Cryp Nuevo projected that BTC’s correction could ease at $74k – A level that coincided with a BTC mining cost that stopped past major pullbacks.
Final Thoughts
- A potential BTC treasury crisis and unwind could offer better buying opportunities.
- However, the discount may not go lower than $74,000 if history repeats itself.
