[Key interpretation] Long term investors of BTC finally began to sell, and the long position explosion suggested that the market fell sharply

HuobiPublished on 2022-10-21Last updated on 2022-10-24

Abstract

Bulls continued to break positions accounted for the majority, indicating that the market is changing downward.

1. BTC retraction rollback continuation

The weekly K line chart of BTC shows that the trading volume has shrunk for two consecutive weeks, indicating that the market is in the adjustment stage, and BTC prices may be at a new low this week. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume corresponding to the weekly K line is low, and it is likely that the trading volume will shrink this week. Therefore, it is judged that BTC is still in a weak operation stage, and once it breaks down, it will see a low of $14000 in the previous period.

2. BTC main force makes a profit and escapes

The main force of BTC made a lot of profit flight. From the numerical point of view, the profit flight of long-term investors occurred on October 18. As shown in the figure, the proportion of SOPR on October 18 reached 1.436, which means that long-term investors with 43% currency gains have changed hands with BTC in large numbers, indicating that BTC prices have shown signs of downward selection in the near future. In terms of trading, although the short-term fluctuation intensity of BTC remains at a low level, it is still brewing the trend of closing price retreat.

3. ETH represents an upward breakthrough

In terms of the daily K line, the ETH price kept fluctuating at a low level, and the breakthrough still did not occur, but the horizontal consolidation continued. In terms of trading volume, the current trading volume of ETH is obviously lower than the isometric line of different cycles after it started to scale down on October 1. At least for the moment, ETH investors have failed to expand trading volume, the time of low volatility adjustment has exceeded expectations, and the price may still fall during the sideways consolidation period.

4. Increase in the number of long positions in the overall market

The number of positions of ETH investors increased slightly, and the number of positions of bulls recently was significantly higher than that of bears. From October 18 to October 20, the short positions of ETH were $16.95 million, $11.94 million and $14.51 million, while the long positions were $48.71 million, $41.97 million and $46.08 million, respectively. Compared with the size of short positions, the accumulated long positions can reach 93.36 million dollars. That is to say, after the number of long positions is significantly higher than that of short positions, the overall market is now on the eve of a break down.

After R&D Investment Catches Up with the U.S., Is the Sino-U.S. Chip Competition Still Just About Money?

The article examines the significance of recent data showing China's total R&D expenditure, measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), catching up to or slightly surpassing that of the United States in 2024. It argues that while this milestone reflects China's immense capacity to mobilize research resources, the competition in semiconductors now extends far beyond sheer financial input. The analysis highlights key differences: China's R&D is heavily skewed towards experimental development (over 80%), focusing on product engineering and industrialization, whereas the U.S. allocates a proportionally larger share (about 15%) to basic research. Furthermore, leading U.S. semiconductor firms reinvest a significant portion of their substantial global sales revenue into R&D, creating a sustainable commercial innovation cycle that is difficult to replicate. The article emphasizes that semiconductor progress depends on converting R&D into commercially viable products that pass rigorous customer validation and achieve repeat orders, not just on spending levels. It concludes that as China enters the top tier of R&D spenders, the critical challenges shift to improving resource allocation efficiency, fostering long-term basic research, and building effective mechanisms to bridge the gap between laboratory discoveries and reliable, market-ready industrial capabilities.

marsbit44m ago

After R&D Investment Catches Up with the U.S., Is the Sino-U.S. Chip Competition Still Just About Money?

marsbit44m ago

Walsh: 2% Inflation Target Unwavering, Maintain Independence, Focus on AI Transformation (Full Text Attached)

Fed Chair Warsh emphasized an unwavering commitment to the 2% inflation target, stating there is "no soft target" and that the FOMC is united on this goal. He indicated that if high inflation persists, interest rate hikes would likely be part of the solution. The Fed voted 9-3 to maintain the benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75%. Warsh announced a significant shift in policy communication, moving away from forward guidance. He noted that market rates have risen between meetings, reflecting a tightening of financial conditions as participants now react more to direct economic data rather than Fed signals. On AI, Warsh highlighted a nearly 20% annual growth rate in high-tech capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence. He acknowledged its potential to boost productivity and supply but also its role in driving up prices for certain sectors like chips and AI infrastructure. The Fed is assessing whether these price pressures will remain sector-specific or spread more broadly. Warsh stressed the Fed's independence, asserting it will not deviate from its mandate due to external pressures. He framed the current decision not as a "pause" but as a period of rigorous review of economic conditions, with future actions to be data-dependent.

marsbit48m ago

Walsh: 2% Inflation Target Unwavering, Maintain Independence, Focus on AI Transformation (Full Text Attached)

marsbit48m ago

Top 10% of American Households Capture 88% of Wealth, How Is the AI Era Cake Divided?

AI Worsens Wealth Inequality as Top 10% of US Families Garner 88% of Stock Gains (2019-2026) A report from the China Finance 40 Forum highlights that the AI boom is significantly widening wealth inequality in the United States. From 2019 to Q1 2026, wealth from directly held stocks by US households nearly doubled from $29 trillion to approximately $55 trillion, with rapid growth concentrated post-2023, coinciding with the AI-driven stock market surge. The distribution of these gains has been starkly uneven. Between 2022 and Q1 2026, the wealth increase of about $21 trillion was captured almost entirely by the wealthiest families: the top 10% secured roughly 88% ($18.5 trillion), while the bottom 50% received only about 1% ($0.2 trillion). This has contributed to a growing disparity in disposable income shares. The report, referencing economic historian Robert Allen, draws parallels to historical technological shifts like the "Engels' Pause" during the First Industrial Revolution, where worker wages stagnated despite productivity gains. It suggests AI could induce a similar period where capital收益 outpace labor income, exacerbating inequality. Huang Yiping of Peking University identifies four mechanisms through which AI impacts income distribution: capital-bias (reducing labor's income share), task polarization (hollowing out middle-skill jobs), skill-based digital divides, and wealth amplification through assets. He warns that if this trend continues, strong supply growth driven by AI could be undermined by persistently weak consumer demand, threatening sustainable economic growth. To address these challenges, the report proposes a three-pronged strategy: 1) Defensive measures like strengthening social safety nets and antitrust enforcement; 2) Empowering workers through education reform and lifelong learning to collaborate with AI; and 3) Rebalancing via policies such as potential taxes on AI超额收益 and mechanisms for broader sharing of technology's benefits, ensuring AI's红利 are more equitably distributed.

marsbit49m ago

Top 10% of American Households Capture 88% of Wealth, How Is the AI Era Cake Divided?

marsbit49m ago

US arbitration giant launches specialist panel for crypto disputes

The American Arbitration Association (AAA) has established a specialized panel of arbitrators to handle blockchain and digital-asset disputes. This "Web3 Panel" comprises experts in law, technology, academia, and business to address conflicts arising from automated, decentralized systems. These include disputes over contracts, governance, cybersecurity, and cross-border enforcement. The initiative reflects mainstream legal institutions adapting to the complexities of crypto and autonomous transactions, though arbitration remains a consensual process. Initial panel members include legal specialists, a law professor, and a Google Cloud Web3 strategy head.

cointelegraph1h ago

US arbitration giant launches specialist panel for crypto disputes

cointelegraph1h ago

Finland to "cut" cables: Russian operators will have to look for new internet routes

Finland will cut the optical fiber communication cables attached to its power transmission line pylons along the border with Russia by 2027, according to its energy company Fingrid. This follows the 2022 halt of electricity imports from Russia, making the infrastructure economically unviable to maintain solely for telecom needs. Currently, about 60-70% of Russia's international internet traffic transits through Finland, with up to 30% of these lines running along the power lines in question. Russian telecom operators are negotiating with Finnish counterparts for alternative routes. Potential backups include lines through Belarus, Baltic states, and submarine cables in the Baltic Sea. While no major impact on user traffic is expected, potential effects include rerouting, reduced network redundancy, and increased latency, especially for users in northwestern and European Russia. An AI analysis notes that shifting to submarine cables introduces new risks, as they are vulnerable to anchor damage and lengthy repairs. This technical move occurs alongside broader trends toward digital autonomy in Russia, raising questions about the future reliability of external internet channels.

cryptonews.ru4h ago

Finland to "cut" cables: Russian operators will have to look for new internet routes