XEN 爆火背后，是“有预谋”的运营还是偶然事件？

深潮TechFlowPublished on 2022-10-16Last updated on 2022-10-16

Abstract

过去几天，圈内热议最多的话题当属 $XEN 了。 $XEN 自 10 月 8 日 launch 之后，仅用一天，就冲到了 ETH 的 Gas 消耗榜首，现在依然停留在榜首。

过去几天，圈内热议最多的话题当属 $XEN 了。

$XEN 自 10 月 8 日 launch 之后，仅用一天，就冲到了 ETH 的 Gas 消耗榜首，现在依然停留在榜首。

在此期间，尽管 $XEN 的价格持续下跌，据抹茶平台显示，距离最高点已经下跌 95%以上，但社区热度和讨论热度持续不减。

XEN 爆火背后，是“有预谋”的运营还是偶然事件？

截至目前，网上已经有多篇文章在探讨 XEN ，讨论角度多围绕项目本身、创始人背景或 Gas 消耗，本文则想从营销角度来谈一谈，爆火之前 XEN 做了什么？这场狂欢背后，是天意还是人为？

一、黎明前，抓好 Storytelling

1.讲好愿景，找到早期簇拥者

8 月 13 日，创始人 Jack Levin 在推特首次发表了关于 FairCrypto Foundation 的设想，并公布了 XEN 项目白皮书。

据白皮书介绍，XEN 的目标是一种通用加密货币，以实现区块链的最初使命，即去中心化、透明、抗审查、点对点价值交换和所有权。

Jack Levin 还在推特上大喊：人人都能做中本聪。

XEN 爆火背后，是“有预谋”的运营还是偶然事件？

我们都知道一个好愿景的重要性，它能帮你快速触达早期用户，并向他们展示未来的想象空间。

从 XEN 的愿景可以看出，它希望笼络的用户范围非常庞大。

但在早期，它的步子并没有迈得太大。项目正式开启前，创始人更多还是在做小范围的社区运营。在 9 月份的内测阶段，活跃 minter 数量在 1500 人左右。

一个有意思的点是，尽管现在国内用户数量已经冲起来了，但项目在最初阶段主要瞄准以及笼络到的还是引发初期传播涟漪的“种子用户”。

XEN 爆火背后，是“有预谋”的运营还是偶然事件？

2.巧妙的项目设计，既符合愿景叙事，又利于触达用户

讲好了宏大的愿景，更重要的就是设定一个极低的参与门槛。

XEN 的发布方式非常简单：无预售、无白名单、无管理团队、初始 0 供应、没有任何形式的分配和融资。每个人都有同样的机会去铸造 XEN。

最重要的是，free mint！并且按 PoP（proof of participant）来计算奖励。极低的准入门槛，让任何想要参与到项目的人，都能以非常便捷的方式参与进来。

不管你是早期信仰者、后来者，还是跟风者、犹豫者，总有一个点能打动你。

引用创始人在 YouTube 接受采访时说的一段话：“它从零开始，没有供应，也没有分配给它的价值，所以你怎么可能赔钱，你没有为它付钱就不可能赔钱，进入壁垒只是一些 Gas fee。”

3.当开发者学会说人话，一切都是那么丝滑

除了上述提到的非常简单易懂的项目设计外，Jack Levin 在发布前还做了一些准备工作，帮助大家理解 XEN 的玩法：

简化白皮书。XEN 的白皮书一共 15 页，除了奖励部分不可避免地要提及计算公式，其他地方都尽可能地用问答形式直观地进行了说明；

参与 YouTube、Twitter Space 活动，进行项目预热；

XEN 爆火背后，是“有预谋”的运营还是偶然事件？

发布 Xenpedia，进一步降低阅读门槛，并汇总所有前期预热材料。

所以，XEN 的发布并不是突如其来，创始人早在一个多月前，就开始逐步进行预热，为最后的 launch 铺垫基础。

在上线前不到 5 天，更是多次进行预告，让早期簇拥者可以踩住时间、精准涌入。

XEN 爆火背后，是“有预谋”的运营还是偶然事件？

二、上线后的爆火涟漪

前面的准备工作就像造了一块石子，正式上线后的一系列事件，则是石子被扔进水里引发的一串涟漪。

在激起足够多的关注后，咕咚一声，正式进入 web3 的大湖。

XEN 爆火背后，是“有预谋”的运营还是偶然事件？

波纹理论参考 by 时趣互动

  • 涟漪 1：Gas 消耗引发破圈关注

XEN 上线后仅一天，Gas 消耗就跑到了以太坊榜首，随后引发了很多人的疑问，到底发生什么了？

XEN 爆火背后，是“有预谋”的运营还是偶然事件？

这一步，直接帮助 XEN 完成了从早期社区跳跃到大众视线的过程。

在大家进行 DD 的时候，前期准备的物料便能发挥二次功效了。

  • 涟漪 2：创始人的背景光环

Ex-Googler #21 是创始人推特介绍里出现的第一栏。在鱼龙混杂且强调 DYOR 的 crypto 世界里，数量庞大的散户们进行 DD 的首要方式就是看官网、看团队、看资方。有一个出众的背景能帮你快速吸引到一波眼球，建立初始信任，谷歌第 21 号员工无疑就是这样一种亮眼的标签。

此外，Jack Levin 的介绍里还提及自己是一位 biohacker，并曾创办过网站 imageshack。

XEN 爆火背后，是“有预谋”的运营还是偶然事件？

尽管后续 21 号谷歌员工的身份受到质疑，但它已然承接住了第一个涟漪，并完成了第二个涟漪。

  • 涟漪 3：第二波用户进场，社区、讨论、报道效用叠加

到这时，XEN 这个项目已经可以自发产生热度了。媒体也快速跟进，多角度进行报道。

各种各样的人开始被吸引关注，帮助 XEN 打造话题热度，不论是认可项目原生价值的、忙着进场短线操作一波的、冷静旁观评判项目的，在这个阶段，都放下了手上的工作。

推特 hashtag 讨论破千，冲到热榜第二。

在项目最初发布的两天里，新用户的涌入速度基本能维持在每小时过万。

XEN 爆火背后，是“有预谋”的运营还是偶然事件？

同时，华语社区的热度也拉了起来。

爆火前，华语社区连前十都进不了，爆火后，我们立刻冲上榜单第二。

虽然我们不一定是第一个入场的，但我们已经向全世界证明了我们抓热点的能力和对加密的热情。

XEN 爆火背后，是“有预谋”的运营还是偶然事件？

经过这一波发酵，XEN 在大家心中的认知更加立体，打出了非常漂亮且巨大的第三个涟漪。

  • 涟漪 4：价格的暴涨

在 XEN 的规则里，time = value，时间就是成本。

先来的吃肉，后来的喝汤，初入者投入成本可忽略不计，但回报的天花板具有很大的想象空间。

相比于得到什么，人们更害怕的是失去。

圈内有一句名言“拉盘才是硬道理”，而拉盘也是最容易让人 fomo 的动因。

当短期质押者晒出回报的时候，狂欢就真正开始了。

XEN 爆火背后，是“有预谋”的运营还是偶然事件？

三、天时、地利、人和

在 XEN 的这场狂欢里，还有一个我们无法忽视的“天时”因素，那就是熊市下的叙事真空。

很多朋友会讨论，下一个牛市将由什么叙事驱动？

而当我们拉近来看时，会发现就在当下，已经很久没有一个叙事来聚拢圈内的注意力了。

在我们之前一篇文章中曾谈到，虽然牛市用户的积极性高，但你所面临的营销竞争将会更大。而熊市虽然用户的交互意愿低，但当你有一个突出的叙事时，就更有机会脱颖而出。

前段时间有一位朋友跟笔者交流，想结合世界杯的到来做一些“玩法粗暴的产品”，其核心洞察就是，熊了这么久，“大家都憋坏了”。

XEN 就在这样一个天时中，为大家解解乏。

币圈有记忆，这些年我们见过各种币的暴涨暴跌；币圈也没有记忆，历史总会重复发生，因为人总是很难违抗人性。

谁也无法预料漫长的质押期结束后 XEN 会如何发展。或许 XEN 最后会找到自己的应用价值，实现创始人的宏观愿景，又或许 XEN 只是我们韭菜进阶之路上的另一个“维权项目”。

不论 XEN 将发展如何，不变的是，ETH 被真实地被燃烧了，而我们同样还会追逐下一个“XEN”。

Related Reads

Semiconductor Stock Rebound: Is the Technical Correction Over or a Trend Reversal?

The core of recent semiconductor stock volatility is not about daily price swings, but rather the market questioning whether AI-driven semiconductor pricing has entered a new phase. Following a sharp sell-off in Korean stocks on June 23rd, led by Samsung and SK Hynix, a subsequent rebound is seen more as a technical positioning adjustment rather than a confirmed trend reversal. The key variable is HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), essential for AI chips. Its supply-demand imbalance granted memory makers significant pricing power. The current market focus is on whether this dynamic remains strong enough to justify elevated valuations. All eyes are on Micron's upcoming earnings report. The critical factor is not whether results meet already high expectations, but whether the company's guidance confirms that AI memory pricing power, order visibility, and future margins are still expanding. Micron's outlook will serve as a crucial test for the broader AI semiconductor chain, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and other infrastructure players. The recent bounce appears to be a pre-earnings positioning repair. For it to evolve into a sustained uptrend, concrete evidence is needed that the AI infrastructure expansion cycle's fundamentals—particularly for high-end memory—remain robust and can continue to surpass elevated market expectations. The risk is that strong demand alone may not be sufficient if future guidance hints at peaking momentum or increasing supply-side pressures.

marsbit4m ago

Semiconductor Stock Rebound: Is the Technical Correction Over or a Trend Reversal?

marsbit4m ago

Global Tech Stocks Plunge: Another Stress Test for the AI Bull Market

Global tech stocks plummeted in a sharp selloff on June 23, with South Korea's KOSPI index crashing nearly 10%, triggering a trading halt. The plunge was led by semiconductor giants Samsung and SK Hynix, dragging down major Asian and US tech indexes and levered ETFs. The immediate trigger was a confluence of three signals within 24 hours: 1) reports that SK Hynix was slowing HBM4 expansion, raising doubts about a key AI chip bottleneck; 2) profit-taking ahead of Micron's earnings report after its massive year-to-date rally; and 3) a warning from Korean regulators about the risks of single-stock leveraged ETFs. The selloff's severity was amplified by Korea's uniquely leveraged market structure: record-high retail margin debt, over $30 billion in volatile single-stock leveraged ETFs requiring daily rebalancing (which creates selling pressure during declines), and the surprising shift of the National Pension Service from a net buyer to a net seller. The event reignited debates about an AI bubble. Analysts differed on timing—some warned of imminent rupture, others saw a temporary liquidity-driven correction—but agreed that sky-high valuations, a shift to retail/leveraged buying, and rising rates created a fragile setup. The parallel steep drop in SpaceX's stock, alongside its massive debt raise for AI infrastructure, underscored a broader market shift from narrative-driven "infinite imagination" to a "return on investment" calculation phase. All eyes are now on Micron's upcoming earnings report, seen as a key test for the AI hardware trade's fundamental logic. A strong report could stabilize markets, while a miss could validate deeper fears. The episode serves as a stark warning: when a bull run becomes dependent on leveraged bets on a single narrative, a violent and rapid correction should not be a surprise. The core question for investors is how much drawdown they are willing to tolerate to stay invested.

marsbit5m ago

Global Tech Stocks Plunge: Another Stress Test for the AI Bull Market

marsbit5m ago

Ethereum Foundation Cuts 20% of Staff, 54 Depart: The Survival Logic Behind the Restructuring

The Ethereum Foundation (EF) has announced a major restructuring, resulting in the departure of 54 staff members, representing approximately 20% of its workforce. This reorganization is not merely a cost-cutting measure but a strategic refocusing. The EF will now concentrate its resources on what it deems critical and unique tasks, structured around five new operational clusters. The new structure comprises clusters dedicated to: the Protocol Layer (ensuring Ethereum's core properties like censorship resistance and security); the Access Layer (enabling trusted, non-intermediated user interactions); the User Layer (grounding decisions in real user needs and constraints); the Community Layer (representing EF's stance and building alliances); and the Institutional Layer (engaging with enterprises, governments, and academia to promote principled adoption). The foundation stated that the layoffs were a difficult but necessary step to align its organization and spending with its long-term mandate, insulating its core work from short-term market fluctuations. Affected employees were offered a severance package and transition support. The restructured EF emerges as a leaner and more focused organization, poised to prioritize the development and preservation of Ethereum's foundational promise of self-sovereignty. Further details on the new operational model are expected in the coming weeks.

marsbit8m ago

Ethereum Foundation Cuts 20% of Staff, 54 Depart: The Survival Logic Behind the Restructuring

marsbit8m ago

Talking About Returns But Not Collection? Goldfinch's Liquidation Sounds the Alarm for RWA Credit

Goldfinch, a crypto lending platform connecting investors with real-world borrowers, has proposed a full wind-down via governance proposal GIP-87. The plan would halt all new development, shut down its flagship Goldfinch Prime product, and allocate 150,000 USDC to manage the collection of outstanding loans. While the proposal is under community vote, it highlights a critical shift for the RWA (Real World Asset) lending sector: the transition from a growth phase focused on yields to a difficult recovery phase focused on collections. The proposal reveals that while the protocol's on-chain TVL is low, it still holds tens of millions in active, non-performing loans off-chain. This gap underscores that tokenizing debt makes tracking exposure transparent but does not simplify the offline, labor-intensive, and legally complex process of loan recovery. The case of the Lend East pool, where only an estimated 42% of a $10.15 million loan may be recovered, exemplifies the potential for significant investor losses. The wind-down plan forces token holders to govern not expansion but the maintenance of a debt collection system, including funding legal trust structures and preserving user access for repayments. This move starkly contrasts with the sector's typical narrative of rapid, AI-powered underwriting and high yields, exposing the often-overlooked necessity for robust borrower vetting, standardized disclosure, and sustainable collection mechanisms. Ultimately, Goldfinch's situation serves as a crucial stress test for the entire RWA lending space. It demonstrates that a platform's true resilience is tested not during capital deployment but during the protracted, costly, and uncertain process of recovering defaulted loans from real-world borrowers, a challenge blockchain transparency alone cannot solve.

Foresight News13m ago

Talking About Returns But Not Collection? Goldfinch's Liquidation Sounds the Alarm for RWA Credit

Foresight News13m ago

Meta Launches Prediction Market, Code-Named "Arena": Not Using Real Money, 3.56 Billion Daily Active Users Are Its Biggest Bargaining Chip

Meta, under the codename "Arena," is developing a standalone prediction market application, according to a June 23 report by The New York Times. Initially, the app will operate on a points-based system rather than real-money betting, though future integration of financial transactions is not ruled out. Meta plans to leverage its vast ecosystem of apps, boasting 3.56 billion daily active users, to distribute the product. The strategy aims to lower user acquisition costs and navigate regulatory complexities associated with real-money prediction markets, which are overseen by bodies like the CFTC. News of Meta's entry caused stock dips for established players like DraftKings and Robinhood, reflecting market concerns over Meta's potential to disrupt incumbents like Polymarket and Kalshi with its massive scale. The prediction market sector has seen explosive growth, with monthly trading volume on major platforms surging to approximately $24 billion as of April 2026. This marks Meta's second foray into the space, having launched and later shut down a similar virtual-points app called Forecast in 2020. While Arena poses a competitive threat to crypto-based platforms like Polymarket, its mainstream reach could also significantly expand the overall user base and awareness for prediction markets. The project remains in development with no public launch timeline, but its announcement has already impacted market sentiment.

marsbit18m ago

Meta Launches Prediction Market, Code-Named "Arena": Not Using Real Money, 3.56 Billion Daily Active Users Are Its Biggest Bargaining Chip

marsbit18m ago

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片