美国9月CPI公布之前:市场观望情绪浓烈,BTC承压测试1.9万美元关键支撑

比推Published on 2022-10-12Last updated on 2022-10-13

Abstract

过去24小时,宏观阴云进一步笼罩市场,由于投资者在美国关键通胀数据报告发布前仍保持谨慎态度,加密市场周一走低。

过去24小时,宏观阴云进一步笼罩市场,由于投资者在美国关键通胀数据报告发布前仍保持谨慎态度,加密市场周一走低。

根据比推终端数据,截止发稿时,市值最大的加密货币比特币下跌约 1.14% 至 19,244.00 美元,当天早些时候一度跌至 19,116.43 美元的低点。以太坊在跌至 1,297.07 美元的低点后,小幅反弹至 1,307.58 美元。

本周需要关注的关键数据点将是周四的 CPI 数据和 FOMC 会议纪要。美国劳工统计局将发布 9 月份的消费者物价指数(CPI),经济学家预计,CPI通胀数据将从 8 月的 8.3% 放缓至 9 月的 8.1%,但仍是美联储 2% 通胀目标的四倍。

投资者密切关注这些更新,以寻找有关美联储为降低通胀而如何采取下一步行动的线索。

最近,BTC 的交易价格一直徘徊在 19,200 美元至 19,600 美元之间。在上周五的美国就业增长报告显示招聘正在放缓但仍然强劲之后,BTC 跌破 20,000 美元,这表明市场押注美联储将继续收紧货币政策以降低通胀。

加密数据公司 Kaiko 研究分析师 Riyad Carey 表示:“今天的走势反映了所有市场的普遍看跌趋势,并且可能受到通胀数据之前的一些去风险的影响。比特币与股票密切相关,我预计这种情况会持续下去,因为最近几周没有很多特定于加密货币的催化剂。我还预计周四会出现大幅波动,因为通胀数据将提供更多关于美联储是否或何时开始转向的信息”。

不过,也有一些看涨迹象。根据 CoinShares周一的一份报告,上周数字资产投资产品的资金流出总额为 500 万美元,但这些赎回是由“空头”比特币产品的撤出或押注价格下跌的产品推动的。

报告称,做空比特币投资产品的资金流出总额达到创纪录的 1500 万美元。

CoinShares 写道:“看跌情绪正在消散”。

报告称,上周以以太坊为重点的基金出现总额为 220 万美元的小额资金外流,“突显出合并后投资者的持续犹豫”。

CoinShares 研究主管 James Butterfill 对 CNBC 表示,“我们认为有一种说法是央行开始犯政策错误,我们的一些客户已经表明他们现在不想购买比特币,但一旦美联储调整立场,他们就会增加头寸”。

1.9万美元关键支撑

尽管投资者忧心忡忡,加密货币与股票的相关性仍然是正向的,但最近几周比特币的波动性异常低。

数据提供商 Kaiko 周一在一份研究报告中表示,比特币已经连续第四个周日收于 19,000 美元的水平,按每小时的回报率计算,加密市场自 6 月大崩盘以来所经历的高波动性走势可能即将结束。

与此同时,投资巨头 ARK Investments 在最新一期的“比特币月刊”中将比特币的整体投资者成本基础定为 19,000 美元,这意味着如果跌破关键支撑位 19,000 美元,将在整个比特币投资者群中引发更大规模的损失。

ARK 解释说:“在 9 月的大部分时间里,比特币在两个主要历史水平之间交易:其 200 周移动平均线(23,500 美元)作为阻力位,其投资者成本基础作为支撑位(19,000 美元),随着强大的持有者行为与疲软的宏观环境作斗争,任何一方的决议都将在比特币的中短期表现中发挥重要作用。”

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