我们如何逃离旁氏骗局

区块律动Published on 2022-10-09Last updated on 2022-10-09

Abstract

换句话说,我们如何开始清理垃圾,为加密行业下阶段增长腾出空间?

换句话说,我们如何开始清理垃圾,为加密行业下阶段增长腾出空间?

早在今年四月,我曾写过一篇文章叫做《我们需要逃离庞氏骗局》 我觉得这篇文章略微超前了,当时我们仍在经历看涨的高点 (Terra 还未崩盘,人们还认为 4Pool 将起飞 )。现在重新阅读这篇文章,感觉像是行业内的老生常谈。有时我觉得应该在未来的 6 个月内安排此类文章,这样它们和行业现状会更具相关性。

当时我有一些关于如何逃离旁氏骗局的想法。现在的行业变动我可以看出我们如何开始清理垃圾,为 crypto 各行业下阶段的增长腾出空间。

现状

crypto 行业,在 UST 崩溃和流动性全面枯竭之后,目前正在经历自我反省和收拾残局的阶段。美元正在摧毁所有人,加之市场可以完全规避风险。现金的地位从垃圾变成了王者,正如桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧所说:「我改变了关于现金作为一种资产的看法,我不认为现金是垃圾。」

工程师不再像钻石一样稀缺,风险投资像沙漠一样干涸。然而,对于还留在这场 crypto 游戏中的人来说,至关重要的只有一点:价值——也就是用户。

为了让 crypto 发展成熟,我认为有 3 个关键问题需要解决:

谨慎激励 / 获取消费

更好地理解使用 / 收入及其来源

更紧密的用户获取循环

问题

谨慎的激励 / 获取消费

DeFi 之夏开启了代币消费机制的时代,在这个时代,在一周内捐出初创公司 90% 的股权被认为是一个好路子。那时起,我们通过创建一个适当的循环,使这场游戏变得更加复杂和危险:

抽取高额激励

使用高激励来吸引大量的 TVL

使用高 TVL 来证明更高的代币估值价格

更高的估值价格=更多的激励

重复看涨抬价

当流动性达到顶峰时退出,让其余的崩溃

更糟糕的是,近期人们才意识到,计算一家初创公司的收入时应减去他们的激励措施,用以了解其中有多少是真实的。

此前,Token Terminal 发布了这个收益排行榜,减少美元激励,以了解许多项目的实际收入。

根据这些数据,我们开始朝着正确的方向发展,因为在单位经济中可以清楚地看到抽取无用激励机制。然而,有一个关键的结论是:在未来的几个月里,这个行业发展只会变得更受数据驱动。

更高质量地使用 / 收入细分

在 Solana 巅峰时期,由于其吹捧的 TVL 高得离谱,带动其情绪高涨到了极点。一个协议的 TVL 超百亿美元,无疑是在超越以太坊的路上!?几周前,我们发现高得离谱的「TVL」实际上只是被一些人循环利用了多次。

事实上,这类操作并非很难发现。所有的数据都是公开透明的。看到相同的地址在链上做相同的事情,是会更好地理解使用 / 收入的来源,然而我们在熊市中几个月后才意识到这一点。这只是冰山一角。与传统企业类似,拥有一个大客户的企业比拥有 10 个客户的企业脆弱得多。目前的加密估值也没法辨别这种细微差别。因此,激励就变成了获得一两个你认识的巨鲸,然后获得许多垃圾邮件帐户来增加用户数量,这样你才有足够安全的数字让你的庞氏骗局继续下去。为了解决这个问题,我们需要更详细地分析谁在使用所有东西。是真的,是假的,可持续吗?

更紧密的用户获取循环

除了 Uniswap 做了第一次撤回空投,之后的每一次空投都被破坏了,并致使了非常高昂的代价。事实是,空投是目前使用非常糟糕的用户获取工具。当前形式的问题要复杂得多,因为您会遇到与以下情况有点类似的情况:

人们知道哪些产品没有代币

人们使用产品最低限度或任何标准使自己有资格获取空投

然后团队被迫「空投」给低质量的用户

用户接收空投

然后用户转储空投

代币价格下降

初创企业的收购预算较少 ( 价格较低 + 供应过剩 )

相反,在用户获取上需要更严格的特征和控制。这包括但不限于:

关于哪些渠道驱动用户的能动性

数据驱动下标记其过程的每个阶段

围绕目标人群的清晰推理

了解产品的生命周期价值 ( 预期和实际 ) 和购置成本

围绕期望的结果以及产品的价值主张将如何随着时间的推移降低购买成本进行推理

再次强调,这归结为知道谁是使用你的产品的用户,谁是你想获取来使用你的产品的用户。在我们得到它之前,我们会一直进行愚蠢的游戏,赢得愚蠢的奖品。

方法

链上身份和声誉——加密的最后一块难题。

一旦你知道了一个地址的行为 / 意图 ( 不是 KYC 的细节 ),那么你就可以用比 Web2 中任何可能的方式,通过更优雅和复杂地手段来解决这些问题。

突然间,你不再向 5000 个地址空投了。你所空投的用户是已经使用某些协议持续了 X 年,至少需要 $Y,并且有严格的质量标准的。

当检查一个协议的收入时,你不能只看宏观数字。而是应该了解,新用户占多大比例?体验过该应用的用户粘性如何?都是新用户吗?

决定你的产品团队在做什么的不是基于 Twitter 上卡通人物的虚假叙述,而是基于真实的数据,基于你每个百分点净赚数百万美元的转化流程。

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