谁将定义AI时代的规则？Anthropic谈2028年中美AI格局

marsbitPublished on 2026-05-16Last updated on 2026-05-16

Abstract

Anthropic发布文章分析2028年中美AI竞争格局，认为未来两三年是形成前沿AI格局的关键窗口期。文章指出，美国及其盟友目前在先进芯片、模型能力、资本和技术栈上占据优势，但中国凭借人才、数据、工程效率和快速追赶能力正持续接近前沿。 Anthropic提出两种可能情景：一是美国通过强化算力管制、遏制模型能力外溢（如蒸馏攻击）并加速AI应用，在2028年建立并扩大领先优势，主导全球AI规则制定；二是若管制不力，中国通过规避算力限制和利用美国模型技术，在AI能力上接近甚至部分反超美国，从而争夺全球AI规则主导权。文章强调，算力是竞争的核心，美国需守住芯片供应链优势并堵住技术外溢漏洞。AI不仅是技术竞赛，更将深刻影响经济、国家安全和全球治理。Anthropic主张美国应通过政策行动保持领先，以确保由民主价值观塑造AI发展，并在优势基础上与中国开展AI安全对话。

编者按:AI 竞争正在从模型能力之争,进入更复杂的系统性竞争。

本文讨论的是 Anthropic 对中美 AI 竞争的最新判断。作者认为,未来两到三年将是前沿 AI 格局形成的关键窗口期:一方面,美国及其盟友仍在先进芯片、模型能力、资本投入和全球技术栈上占据优势;另一方面,中国 AI 实验室也凭借人才、数据、工程效率和快速追赶能力,正在持续接近前沿。

基于此,Anthropic 认为当前的核心任务,是守住自身在算力和模型能力上的领先优势。这既包括继续强化先进芯片出口管制,也包括限制海外数据中心、芯片转移、模型蒸馏等技术外溢路径。否则,中国 AI 企业可能通过算力获取和模型能力复制,在 2028 年前进一步缩小与美国前沿模型之间的差距。

这篇文章也呈现了一个更大的行业判断:当 AI 进入能力加速期,竞争的重点已经不只是「谁拥有最强模型」,而是谁能把模型能力转化为基础设施、产业效率、全球市场和治理规则。AI 技术越接近通用能力,其背后的芯片供应链、资本投入、政策工具和全球分发网络,就越会成为决定未来格局的关键变量。

以下为原文:

我们发布了一篇新论文,阐述我们对中美 AI 竞争的看法。

美国及其盟友需要在 AI 领域保持相对于中国等主要竞争对手的领先优势。随着 AI 能力快速提升,这项技术很快将深度影响社会治理、国家安全和国际力量格局。与此同时,AI 的发展速度正在不断加快,留给各方设定竞争规则、管理技术风险、塑造全球治理框架的时间窗口并不宽裕。正是在这一背景下,我们提出了确保美国保持领先所需采取的措施。

发展 AI 最重要的要素之一,是获得用于训练模型的计算芯片,也就是「算力」。由于最先进的芯片主要由美国及其盟友体系内的企业开发,美国政府目前通过出口管制,限制中国获得相关芯片。近期经验表明,这些管制措施已经产生明显效果。事实上,中国 AI 实验室之所以能够开发出接近美国水平的模型,主要依靠其人才优势、对出口管制漏洞的利用,以及大规模模型蒸馏行为——即通过提取美国模型输出和能力,快速复制部分技术成果。

在本文中,我们提出了两个关于 2028 年世界可能走向的情景。我们预计,到那时,具有变革意义的 AI 系统将已经出现。

在第一种情景中,美国成功守住了自身的算力优势。政策制定者进一步收紧出口管制,减少中国通过模型蒸馏等方式获取美国前沿能力的空间,并加速美国及其盟友对 AI 的采用。在这个世界里,美国主导的技术生态能够更大程度地影响 AI 的规则、标准和治理框架。也正是在这种情景下,美国更有可能与中国围绕 AI 安全展开有效沟通;在可行范围内,我们对此持支持态度。

在第二种情景中,美国没有采取足够行动。政策制定者未能堵住中国获取先进算力的渠道,中国 AI 企业迅速利用这些空间,追赶上 AI 前沿,甚至在部分领域实现反超。在这个世界里,AI 的规则和标准将由更多国家共同争夺,最先进模型也可能被用于更大规模的社会治理、网络行动和安全能力建设。即使这种局面建立在美国算力和美国技术外溢的基础之上,也并不符合美国及其盟友的长期利益。

美国及其盟友是以较强优势进入 AI 竞争的。AI 主导权所需的关键工具,是由美国及其盟友体系内高度创新的企业生态建立起来的。过去的成功意味着,当前最重要的任务,很大程度上是避免浪费既有优势:不要让中国更容易追赶上来。

2028 年中美 AI 竞争的两种情景

摘要

AI 的开发与部署,将决定未来全球技术规则、产业标准和治理框架的走向。谁能在 AI 领域保持领先,谁就更有可能塑造这些系统的运行方式。

目前,美国及其盟友在算力方面拥有显著领先优势。算力是开发前沿 AI 模型最重要的要素之一。这一领先优势来自美国及其盟友的技术创新,也来自美国两党共同支持的出口管制政策。但在模型智能水平上,中国 AI 实验室已经并不遥远。我们关注中国的 AI 发展,并不是为了否认中国人民和中国 AI 社区的能力与贡献,而是因为中国是除美国之外,唯一拥有充足资源和顶尖人才、并正在系统性追赶前沿 AI 的国家。

中国已经在信息审查、社会治理、网络安全与军事能力建设等领域应用 AI 技术。中国 AI 实验室拥有世界级人才。真正限制它们继续追赶的,是算力约束。中国实验室之所以能够保持接近前沿的位置,部分原因在于它们利用了美国出口管制政策中的漏洞,并通过大规模模型蒸馏获取美国模型的部分能力,从而加快自身模型训练和能力追赶。

随着算力供给迅速扩大,AI 也越来越多地被用于增强新模型训练,我们正在进入一个 AI 能力高速加速的时期。所谓「数据中心里的天才之国」——也就是我们所理解的具有变革意义的 AI 智能水平——可能已经近在眼前。这种加速让政策行动变得更加紧迫。

迄今为止,由于出口管制规避和模型蒸馏等问题仍然存在,中国 AI 体系得以持续贴近前沿曲线推进。但如果美国及其盟友现在采取行动,同时解决算力获取和模型能力外溢这两个问题,仍有可能在前沿能力上锁定 12 至 24 个月的领先优势。到 2028 年,这样的领先幅度将具有重要战略意义。这样的优势也将增强美国与中国 AI 专家围绕 AI 安全与治理展开沟通的能力,而我们支持这种接触。但锁定这一领先优势的机会窗口不会一直存在。

在这里,我们提出 2028 年中美 AI 竞争状态的两种可能情景。第一种情景是,美国及其盟友在模型智能、应用采用和全球分发方面建立显著领先优势。如果政策制定者现在采取行动,收紧对中国实验室先进算力的管制,减少其通过蒸馏美国最佳 AI 模型来追赶的空间,并加速美国及其盟友对 AI 的采用,这一情景就可能实现。

第二种情景是,中国在接近前沿的位置上具备竞争力。如果政策制定者没有在现有领先优势上继续推进,或者放松中国企业获取先进算力的限制,这一情景就会出现。

美国国会和特朗普政府中已有许多人支持出口管制、遏制模型蒸馏攻击,以及推动美国 AI 技术栈出海。随着这些政策推进,我们希望美国及其盟友能够在 2028 年前确保显著领先优势,避免两年后与中国陷入高度接近的并跑竞争。

保持领先的必要性

我们预计,前沿 AI 将在未来几年对经济和社会产生深远影响,正如《Machines of Loving Grace》和《The Adolescence of Technology》中所描述的那样。我们的使命,是确保人类能够安全且有益地度过向变革性 AI 过渡的阶段。我们相信,成功的过渡将带来医学、发明和经济增长方面的重要突破。

AI 发展中的安全与治理风险

这一过渡能否顺利进行,部分取决于最强大的系统首先由哪些技术生态构建出来。最先进 AI 所处的产业体系、监管环境和治理框架,将塑造这项技术开发与部署的规则。反过来,这些规则也将影响这项技术是否安全、它保护谁的安全,以及它最终服务于哪些利益。

如果 AI 前沿主要由将其用于军事优势、网络行动、社会治理和信息控制的体系所设定,那么这场技术转型将面临更高的不确定性和安全风险。

从历史上看,大规模治理和监控能力往往受到人力执行成本的限制。强大的 AI 系统可能降低这种成本,使自动化治理、识别和决策能力以更大规模展开。因此,中国在 AI 领域取得领先,可能会对全球 AI 治理和安全格局产生重要影响。

中国掌握着庞大的经济、军事和国家治理资源。它也是除美国之外,唯一拥有资源充足、人才高度集中的 AI 实验室,并正在追赶前沿的国家。此外,中国高度重视将自身打造为领先的 AI 强国。北京已经向中国 AI 和半导体产业投入了数百亿美元。

中国已经在信息审查、社会治理、网络行动和安全能力建设等领域应用 AI 系统。相关技术在部分地区的部署,包括面部识别、生物识别数据采集和通信监控,也显示出 AI 在大规模治理中的应用潜力。前沿 AI 系统将使这些能力的维护成本更低、覆盖范围更广、自动化程度更高。随着相关技术向海外扩散,AI 也可能被更多国家用于强化治理和监控能力。由中国主导的 AI 前沿,可能会显著改变全球范围内的技术使用方式和治理模式。

AI 是一种军民两用技术

前沿 AI 将塑造未来的军事力量平衡。中国已经将 AI 视为未来战场的重要变量,并正在推进军事体系的智能化建设。中国军方的战略制定者将军事力量的「智能化」视为追赶并最终提升自身军事能力的重要路径。中国军方已经开始采购中国商业化开发的 AI 系统并用于军事目的,其中包括部署 DeepSeek 模型来协调无人载具集群,并增强网络行动能力。

这些能力不会缓慢扩散。当一个新模型在自主瞄准、漏洞发现或集群协同等方面达到新的能力水平时,掌握它的一方可以在数周内将其投入实际应用,而不是数年。

风险还会进一步叠加,因为前沿 AI 将成为其他关键技术的加速器。先进 AI 模型将能够压缩半导体、生物技术和先进材料领域的研发周期。前沿 AI 领域的领先,将使一个国家在整个国家安全技术栈中不断扩大优势。

如果一个中国 AI 实验室先于美国实验室开发出达到 Claude Mythos Preview 水平的模型,中国就将首先获得一个能够自主发现并串联软件漏洞的系统,并可能利用它进一步提升网络行动能力。未来模型的能力将呈指数级提升,因此也会对美国和其他国家的安全利益产生更大影响。

并跑竞争可能削弱负责任 AI 的激励

中美 AI 实验室之间的并跑竞争,可能会让行业和政府主导的安全与治理努力变得更加困难。如果中国实验室紧随美国模型之后,或者与美国模型处于同一水平,美国和中国的私营 AI 公司都可能感受到更大压力,在尚未完成充分部署前安全评估的情况下,更快发布新模型和产品。各国政府也可能因为担心落后,而不愿出台鼓励负责任 AI 开发与部署的政策。

虽然中国 AI 实验室和政策界中越来越多的研究人员开始关注 AI 安全风险,但这种趋势尚未转化为与美国实验室相当的安全实践。截至去年,中国 13 家顶级 AI 实验室中,只有 3 家发布过安全评估结果,没有一家披露过化学、生物、放射性和核风险(CBRN)评估。AI 标准与创新中心(CAISI)发现,在一种常见越狱技术下,DeepSeek 的 R1-0528 模型会响应 94% 的明显恶意请求,而美国参考模型的这一比例为 8%。这种模式在最近发布的模型中仍在延续。例如,今年 4 月发布的一项针对 Moonshot 的 Kimi K2.5 的独立评估发现,与美国前沿模型相比,该模型未能拒绝 CBRN 相关请求的比例更高。

更严重的是,中国实验室经常以开放权重形式发布具备军民两用能力的模型。一旦模型开放权重,既有的安全防护措施就可能被移除,使任何国家或非国家行为体都能将该模型用于恶意目的,包括网络攻击和 CBRN 滥用,而这些防护措施原本正是为了防止此类滥用而设计的。

我们的政策目标:为美国及其盟友创造并维持领先优势

我们支持美国和其他国家采取政策,在智能水平、国内采用和全球分发方面,建立并维持相对于中国的安全、近期领先优势。这一领先对于保护美国及其盟友的国家安全利益、避免 AI 技术被不当使用至关重要。这样做也是确保美国及其盟友能够在未来全球 AI 治理中获得有利位置的基本前提。

Anthropic 深切尊重中国人民,也尊重中国 AI 社区取得的成就。我们希望中国与世界保持和平关系。我们的担忧,具体指向的是任何强大国家体系在获得前沿 AI 系统后,可能给全球安全与治理带来的风险。

AI 安全接触的机会

在可行情况下,Anthropic 支持与中国 AI 专家开展国际 AI 安全对话。无论 AI 在哪里开发和部署,世界都对安全 AI 拥有共同利益。前沿 AI 系统可能带来一系列风险,这些风险需要美国和中国之间展开沟通。识别共同挑战、推动相关理念以准备和缓解这些风险,符合双方共同利益。

当美国保持巨大能力优势时,建设性接触的前景最好。以负责任的方式在最先进 AI 的开发和部署方面建立领先优势,将增强美国影响中国及其他地区 AI 安全实践的能力。

Mythos Preview 带来的警醒

Mythos Preview 是我们今年 4 月作为 Project Glasswing 的一部分向部分合作伙伴发布的模型。它表明,一个能力加速期已经到来,这也让政策行动变得更加紧迫。获得该模型访问权限后,Firefox 在上个月修复的安全漏洞数量,超过了其整个 2025 年修复数量的总和,几乎是其 2025 年月均安全漏洞修复数量的 20 倍。针对这一模型,一位中国网络安全分析师写道,中国「还在磨刀,对方却突然架起了一挺全自动加特林机枪」。

前沿 AI 能力将迅速接近「数据中心里的天才之国」这一变革性 AI 图景。这种加速将由扩展定律的逻辑推动:随着算力和数据输入增加,模型性能会可预测地提升;同时,AI 本身也越来越多地被用于加速新模型的开发。

我们很可能在未来回看时认为,2026 年是美国 AI 实现突破性领先的机会窗口。美国实验室拥有最先进的 AI 模型,在推动前沿所需的先进 AI 芯片数量和质量上都拥有巨大领先优势,并且凭借收入和融资拥有庞大的资本优势,足以支撑相关投资。中国实验室确实具备真实优势:世界级的创新人才、充足且廉价的能源,以及大量数据。这些都是发展前沿智能所需的条件。但它们并没有足够的国内算力来竞争,也没有足够的收入和资本为这场竞争提供资金。

竞争的四条战线

美国和中国正在围绕 AI 等前沿技术展开一场争夺战略优势的竞争。来自北京和华盛顿的公开表态都反映了这一判断。将这场竞争称为一场「竞赛」,可能会给人一种误导性的印象:仿佛存在一条终点线,一旦越过,某一方就能彻底锁定胜利。但实际上,这将是一场持续进行的优势争夺。未来究竟由民主国家,还是由非民主国家更成功地塑造 AI 时代的价值、规则与规范,仍取决于这场长期竞争的走向。

这场竞争正在四条战线上展开:

智能能力:哪些国家能够开发出能力最强的 AI 模型。
国内采用:哪些国家能够最有效地将 AI 融入商业部门和公共部门。
全球分发:哪些国家能够部署支撑全球经济运行的 AI 技术栈。
韧性:哪些国家能够在经济转型过程中维持政治稳定。

在这四条战线中,智能能力是最重要的。我们预计,前沿模型能力将对地缘政治竞争产生最深远的影响。模型能力也是推动市场采用和全球分发的核心因素。

但仅有智能能力并不足够。如果中国能够更快、更有效地将接近前沿的 AI 系统整合进其经济体系和安全体系,并推动低成本、带补贴的 AI 在全球范围内被采用,那么即使在模型智能上存在差距,中国也可能获得足以抵消这种差距的优势。北京的「AI+」行动以及对「具身智能」的重视,正体现出其高度重视将前沿智能融入经济和国家体系的政策方向。特朗普政府的 AI 行动计划,以及其中关于「推动美国 AI 技术栈出口」的重点,也同样说明了推动全球采用所带来的战略优势。

虽然本文不会重点讨论「韧性」这一战线,但我们认为,它将成为 AI 竞争中的重要方面。在这一时期维持稳定、凝聚力和良好政策制定能力,将是一项关键优势;反过来,对无法做到这一点的国家而言,也会成为一种脆弱性。

当前竞争格局

算力——也就是训练和部署前沿 AI 所需的先进半导体——是上述每条竞争战线上的关键投入。全球 AI 领导权之争,在很大程度上就是算力之争。过去十多年里,模型能力一直随着算力规模提升而增强,历史上 AI 能力的大部分性能提升,主要来自更大规模地使用算力。

此外,算力不仅用于训练新模型,也用于支持用户使用 AI,也就是所谓的「推理」能力。无论是训练最智能的模型,还是将这些模型部署到商业和国家安全领域,算力都至关重要。顶尖人才、大量数据和关键算法突破,当然也都对智能竞赛非常重要;但如果算力不足,这些投入都难以真正发挥作用。

目前,民主国家正在赢得算力领导权之争。有人担心,出口管制可能会加速中国发展本土先进芯片供应链的努力,但几乎没有证据表明,中国的自主化努力能够挑战美国及其盟友在先进算力技术上的领先地位。早在出口管制实施之前,北京就已经向中国芯片产业投入了大量资源,并推出了「中国制造 2025」和国家集成电路产业投资基金等重大产业政策。尽管有这些国家支持的投入,中国 AI 实验室和芯片制造商仍然受到美国及其盟友对先进芯片和半导体制造设备出口管制的制约。

结果是,算力差距似乎正在扩大。一项对华为和 NVIDIA 产品路线图的分析发现,从总处理性能来看,华为在 2026 年只能生产出相当于 NVIDIA 总算力 4% 的产品,到 2027 年这一比例为 2%。更重要的是,NVIDIA 只是美国及其盟友算力生态的一部分。Google 和 Amazon 也正在加快生产各自的芯片,即 TPU 和 Trainium,以满足美国前沿 AI 实验室及其客户的需求。

进一步加剧中国算力短缺的是,中国在半导体供应链中多个技术最复杂的环节进展有限。如果无法获得极紫外光刻(EUV)技术,尤其是在政策制定者进一步堵住深紫外光刻(DUV)技术及其服务维护漏洞的情况下,中国芯片制造商将难以生产出足够数量和质量的芯片来挑战美国的算力领导地位。中国无法大规模制造高带宽存储器,也进一步扩大了这一差距。一项研究估计,如果美国加强对中国获取美国算力能力的限制,美国可获得的算力将大约是中国 AI 产业的 11 倍。

民主国家如何建立领先:商业创新与有效公共政策

算力领先主要来自两个原因。

第一个原因,是 NVIDIA、AMD、Micron、TSMC、Samsung、ASML 等企业在美国、日本、韩国、中国台湾、荷兰等民主经济体中的持续创新。正是这些企业共同构建了全球最先进半导体中所需的独特技术。没有这些工程突破,以及几十年来持续的研发投入,今天的 AI 成就不可能出现。

第二个原因,是过去三届美国政府采取了具有前瞻性和决断力的政策行动。两党共同推动的政策行动,通过限制受中国管辖的企业获取美国 AI 技术栈,保护了美国及其盟友的创新引擎。我们的 CEO 也曾公开评论出口管制的重要性。过去几年,这些管制限制了最高端 AI 芯片和半导体制造设备向中国销售,即便北京向该领域投入了大量国家资源,中国前沿 AI 的发展仍受到制约。如果不采取行动限制中国获得美国算力,中国原本可能具备开发出与美国相当甚至更强 AI 的全部条件。

一些观察者担心,限制算力获取会迫使中国 AI 实验室在其他方向上创新,从而削弱美国的领先优势。中国实验室确实在创新,但到目前为止,这些创新还不足以弥补其算力缺口。算法改进既是算力的函数,也是算力的倍增器,而不是算力的替代品。发现这些算法进步本身也是高度依赖算力的过程:更多算力意味着实验室可以运行更多实验,从而发现更多算法改进。随着前沿模型越来越多地参与 AI 研发,这一循环还会进一步收紧,前沿模型将帮助构建自己的下一代。简言之,算力优势会进一步转化为算法优势,并最终转化为 AI 本身的持久领先。

目前,美国前沿系统在智能水平上被估计至少领先中国顶级模型数个月,尽管这类估计不可避免地存在不确定性。尽管中国开放权重模型获得了不少关注,但它们在企业采用方面仍落后于闭源前沿模型,并且公开市场投资者已经开始关注其商业化问题。此外,中国 AI 实验室似乎正在远离开源路线,转而选择将最好的模型保持为私有。

中国 AI 领域的领导者也确认了出口管制的影响,以及对美国芯片的关键需求。中国顶级 AI 实验室的高管曾表达担忧,认为中国会因算力限制而进一步落后。中国头部实验室将算力稀缺列为加速模型能力提升的主要约束,并将出口管制视为造成这一约束的原因。一位中国大型云厂商高管表示,向中国供应受出口管制的美国芯片将产生「巨大,真的巨大」的影响,并补充称,任何供应缺口都会严重影响中国 AI 发展;他同时驳斥了「进口美国芯片会减缓中国自主化努力」的担忧。中国内部主张「出口管制无效」的主要声音,似乎更多来自官方表态和国有媒体,其目的可能是影响美国政策制定者。

中国如何保持竞争力:政策漏洞仍然存在

尽管出口管制在形成当前优势方面是有效的,但其力度仍然不够。尽管中国无法在国内制造足够多的先进芯片,也无法在海外合法购买这些芯片,但中国 AI 实验室仍然通过两种变通方式,在模型智能上保持接近前沿的位置。

第一种方式,是规避性算力获取,包括将 AI 芯片直接走私进入中国,或者访问海外数据中心。第二种方式,是非法模型访问,即通过对美国前沿模型进行蒸馏攻击,并将这些模型作为工具,加速自身 AI 研发。

中国规避美国出口管制已是公开秘密。例如,美国联邦检察官曾指控一名 Supermicro 联合创始人和另外两人,将价值 25 亿美元、包含先进美国芯片的服务器转移到中国。根据美国政府和媒体报道,DeepSeek 使用被禁止向中国销售的先进美国芯片训练了其最新模型。《金融时报》报道称,阿里巴巴和字节跳动如今在位于东南亚的数据中心中,使用受出口管制的美国芯片训练其旗舰模型。当前管制之所以无法覆盖这一路径,是因为美国出口法主要管制芯片销售,而不是对芯片的远程访问。美国出口管制体系正在艰难应对中国 AI 实验室获取美国先进算力的问题。

蒸馏攻击是另一种被用于追赶美国同行、削弱出口管制影响的手段。在这种做法中,中国实验室会创建大量虚假账户,以绕过美国 AI 模型的访问控制,并系统性收集这些模型的输出,用于复制前沿能力。这种做法使相关实验室能够搭便车,利用美国数十年的基础研究、数十亿美元投资,以及全球顶尖工程师共同开发出的前沿模型成果。其结果是,中国可以以极低成本获得接近前沿的能力,而这一成本实际上由美国补贴。从长期国家安全利益角度看,这相当于对关键技术的系统性产业情报获取。OpenAI、Google、Anthropic 和 Frontier Model Forum 都已公开谴责蒸馏攻击行为。

中国 AI 专家也公开承认蒸馏攻击对中国 AI 发展的规模和重要性。一篇国有媒体近期文章将针对美国模型的蒸馏攻击形容为中国 AI 实验室依赖的「后门」,并称其是商业模式的核心组成部分。一位前字节跳动研究人员表示,中国 AI 实验室使用蒸馏作为训练模型的捷径,从而避免投入建设自己的数据管线。

美国政策制定者已经迅速采取行动应对这一威胁。白宫科技政策办公室发布了关于蒸馏攻击的备忘录。白宫、美国战争部以及国会成员中的高级官员也对这一问题表达关注。近期,美国众议院外交事务委员会提出的相关立法,旨在应对蒸馏攻击,并已在委员会中获得一致通过。

如果美国及其盟友的政策制定者能够堵住支撑中国 AI 模型发展的这两条通道——规避性算力获取和非法模型访问——那么我们就有可能获得一次罕见的、足以锁定领先优势的机会。

2028 年的两种情景

下面,我们描述两种假设性的未来情景,以说明今天采取的政策行动将如何塑造 2028 年的竞争格局。

情景一:美国及其盟友拥有压倒性且不断扩大的领先优势

美国的算力优势依然稳固。尽管中国对半导体产业加大国家支持,但中国芯片制造商仍然落后美国及其盟友数年,部分原因在于它们无法获得先进半导体制造设备、相关服务和维护。随着美国及其盟友芯片制造能力上线,以及先进芯片制造商继续开发更高效、性能更强的芯片,中美算力差距正在扩大。

与此同时,美国政策制定者采取行动,堵住美国经济安全工具中的漏洞。随着执法资源更加充足,将芯片走私进入中国、以及在境外数据中心访问受出口管制芯片的努力,越来越难以实现。

因此,美国 AI 模型在智能能力上领先 12 至 24 个月,并且领先优势还在扩大。少数 AI 实验室以最智能、最强大、性能最优的模型处于前沿位置,而这些实验室全部位于美国。「数据中心里的天才之国」已经在网络安全、金融、医疗健康和生命科学等关键行业成为现实。

当美国前沿实验室在 2028 年发布实现能力阶跃式提升的新模型时——类似于 2026 年 4 月 Mythos Preview 所产生的相对影响——中国要到 2029 年或 2030 年才可能获得类似 AI 能力。这将为民主国家制定前沿 AI 系统的规则和规范争取关键缓冲时间。

美国 AI 成为全球经济的基础设施,推动新的经济和科学活力。特朗普政府推动国内 AI 采用、促进美国 AI 出口的努力取得成效,强大 AI 在国内外被广泛采用,由此带来的收益正在推动前所未有的经济增长和技术进步。美国 AI 的全球采用率大幅上升。民主国家在能力和算力上的领先,意味着中国 AI 企业只能在少数国家市场之外难以竞争全球市场份额。世界顶级前沿 AI 系统由民主价值塑造,也使某些国家更难利用 AI 系统侵犯权利和公民自由。

网络安全和其他国家安全优势进一步扩大。公共部门和私营部门的网络安全人员使用先进 AI 系统,缩小美国和其他民主国家的攻击面,并削弱中国在相关系统中获得和维持网络 foothold 的能力,从而使国家安全资产、知识产权和通信网络更加安全。美国压倒性的 AI 优势,也成为遏制外部风险的重要力量。

一个自我强化的循环将进一步巩固民主国家的领导地位。压倒性的 AI 优势使美国及其盟友成为更具吸引力的合作伙伴。这种结盟关系扩大了美国 AI 的市场,也扩大了制定全球 AI 规范的联盟。反过来,这又促进了安全、可靠并保护公民自由的 AI 系统的开发和部署。世界顶尖技术和科学人才继续流向前沿技术的建设中心。美国也因此获得重要筹码,可以在 AI 治理、战略竞争和贸易等关键问题上推动与北京合作。

这一循环会不断自我强化:领先优势加强联盟,联盟又加强领先优势;由民主国家主导的国际秩序,也将在向变革性 AI 过渡的过程中得到锚定。

情景二:中国控制下的 AI 生态与美国并跑

中国开发和部署的 AI 在模型智能上接近前沿。尽管半导体生产能力较弱,中国 AI 实验室训练出的模型只比美国模型落后几个月。持续进行的蒸馏攻击、海外算力访问、薄弱的半导体制造设备出口执法,以及对美国半导体出口管制的放松,都帮助了中国的追赶。持续获得美国前沿 AI 用于 AI 研发,也使中国 AI 实验室能够缩小差距,接近美国同行。

商业和国家层面的采用快速推进。北京通过「AI+」政策推动全国范围内的国内采用。即便中国 AI 模型能力略逊于美国模型,中国推动采用的努力也已经取得成效。因此,中国能够在经济、军事和技术领域更有利地部署接近前沿的 AI 能力,从而使力量平衡向中国倾斜。

中国的 AI 赋能网络能力成为严重威胁。中国将 AI 赋能的网络能力整合进原本已经高度成熟的网络力量体系,使中国军方继续成为具有威胁性的网络竞争者。相关网络行为体获得了对美国以及世界多数国家关键基础设施和军民两用基础设施的更多访问能力,使其能够干扰关键国家安全和社会功能。随着 AI 更深地融入最关键系统,即使民主国家率先开发了这项技术,也无法在 AI 安全上对中国形成优势。

北京正在凭借成本和本地化部署灵活性赢得全球采用。华为和阿里巴巴的数据中心在全球范围内广泛存在,尤其是在全球南方的低成本市场,但并不局限于这些地区。这些数据中心基于较旧芯片扩展能力,而中国之所以能够出口这些芯片,是因为其国内市场可以通过获得出口许可购买美国芯片、走私进入中国的芯片,或者远程访问海外数据中心来满足需求。这些数据中心承载由中国实验室生产的二线模型,虽然不属于最顶级,但价格更低,且仍然有效。

类似华为过去「便宜且够用」的打法,中国接近前沿的模型和硬件支撑起全球经济中一个不可忽视且快速增长的部分。这种基础设施优势,将让中方在相关市场中获得重要影响力。

如何保持领先

为了确保最终走向第一种情景,我们支持以下政策行动方向。

堵住漏洞:走私芯片、海外数据中心访问,以及半导体制造设备。
目前,中国实验室通过走私和海外数据中心获得受出口管制的美国芯片,同时半导体制造设备管制中的缺口也在加速其自主化努力。收紧管制并增加执法预算,有助于堵住这些支撑中国 AI 生态的漏洞。这将降低中国的算力上限,并相应放缓其 AI 进展,从而维持并扩大民主国家的 AI 领先优势。需要注意的是,较低的算力上限也可能实质性削弱蒸馏攻击,因为中国 AI 实验室仍然需要达到一定算力门槛,才能有效进行非法蒸馏。

保护我们的创新:限制模型访问,遏制蒸馏攻击。
美国国会和行政部门的政策制定者可以继续支持相关政策行动,惩罚并抑制来自中国实验室的蒸馏攻击,同时采取措施,帮助美国实验室自身发现和阻止蒸馏攻击。这些措施可以包括通过立法明确蒸馏攻击属于非法行为,并推动美国同行实验室之间、以及实验室与美国政府之间的威胁情报和技术共享。遏制此类行为,可以在未来数月和数年中实质性延长民主国家的领先优势。

推动美国 AI 出口。
随着全球公共部门和商业部门越来越多地采用 AI,特朗普政府应继续推动由民主原则开发和塑造的可信 AI 硬件与模型在全球范围内被采用。现在锁定可信的美国基础设施,可以防止中国 AI 生态在未来获得其进行成本和采用竞争所需的全球立足点。

结论

美国及其盟友已经开发出全球能力最强的前沿 AI 模型,也掌握了全球最先进的 AI 关键投入。这带来了显著优势。如果我们能够守住对这些技术的优先获取权,这一优势就可以继续扩大。但如果这些技术被直接交给竞争对手,这一优势就会丧失。政策制定者今年所做出的决定,将决定变革性 AI 的未来。我们支持那些致力于确保美国及其民主盟友在 2028 年继续保持领先的人。

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On his first day in office, newly inaugurated Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh received a stark market warning, with expectations now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike this year. The shift was triggered by hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Waller, who stated that inflation is now the key policy "driver" and that the odds of a hike or cut are evenly split. This sent short-term Treasury yields higher. Waller signaled a significant pivot in his stance, citing disappointing inflation and labor data. He suggested removing "easing bias" language from Fed statements and did not rule out future rate increases if inflation fails to recede, though he noted immediate action isn't warranted without signs of unanchored inflation expectations. Chairman Warsh faces immediate pressure at his first FOMC meeting in June. With the preferred inflation gauge at a three-year high, analysts warn that failing to hike could be interpreted as an implicit easing of policy. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is adding to existing price pressures. The market's expectation for a hike contrasts sharply with earlier forecasts for multiple cuts. While long-term Treasury yields have been contained by lower energy prices recently, analysts note they remain under structural upward pressure. Warsh's swearing-in at the White House highlights political scrutiny over Fed independence. However, the market has made it clear that inflation is the most urgent challenge, leaving the new chairman little time to settle in.

marsbit4h ago

Warsh's First Day in Office, Markets Deliver a 'Wake-up Call': Rate Hike Expected This Year

marsbit4h ago

Has Microsoft Lost Its Way in the AI Race, and Can Copilot Bring It Back on Track?

Microsoft, once seen as an early AI frontrunner due to its investment in OpenAI, is navigating a strategic shift amid increased competition. Its initial reliance on OpenAI’s GPT models has been complicated by OpenAI’s growing ambitions as a direct competitor, rapid advancements from rivals like Claude and Gemini, and the disruptive rise of AI agents, which challenge its traditional SaaS business model. These factors contributed to stock declines and slower-than-expected adoption of its flagship Copilot products. In response, CEO Satya Nadella has taken a hands-on role in product development, signaling the urgency of change. Microsoft is pivoting from a model-centric strategy to a "model-agnostic" enterprise platform approach. It aims to become the foundational layer connecting various AI models—from OpenAI, Anthropic, or its own new "Superintelligence" team—with enterprise workflows, data, security, and cloud services. Recent organizational changes merged consumer and enterprise Copilot teams to accelerate innovation, exemplified by new products like Copilot Tasks and Copilot Cowork. However, this transformation comes at a high cost. Microsoft faces massive capital expenditures, potentially reaching ~$190 billion by 2026, to support AI infrastructure. While its platform strategy shows early signs of traction with growing Azure AI revenue, it must balance startup-like agility with the reliability expected by enterprise clients. The core challenge is no longer being the sole AI winner but defending its position as the essential enterprise software entry point amidst rapid technological commoditization and the shift towards always-on AI agents.

marsbit5h ago

Has Microsoft Lost Its Way in the AI Race, and Can Copilot Bring It Back on Track?

marsbit5h ago

Why Haven't Forex Stablecoins Taken Off?

Why FX Stablecoins Never Took Off: A Path Forward via Synthetic FX Despite the explosive growth of stablecoin-powered digital banking, which has seen ~$6B in VC investment and a 24x surge in crypto card spending in under a year, a major limitation persists: these banks are essentially dollar-only accounts. This leaves 95-99% of global accounts, which are denominated in non-USD currencies, underserved. Attempts to create native foreign currency (FX) stablecoins (like EURC) have largely failed, with total FX stablecoin TVL at ~$600M compared to $400B for USD stablecoins—a 700x gap. These FX tokens face critical challenges: fragile pegs due to low liquidity, limited exchange/FinTech acceptance, poor on/off-ramps, complex regional compliance, and a chicken-and-egg adoption problem. The article argues that the solution lies not in competing with entrenched USD stablecoin networks (USDT/USDC), but in adopting a synthetic FX model inspired by traditional finance. Specifically, it advocates for Mark-to-Market Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs)—cash-settled FX derivatives that allow users to maintain underlying USD stablecoin holdings while having their account balance and P&L denominated in a foreign currency. This approach offers key advantages: strong oracle-based pegs, retention of deep USD stablecoin liquidity and yield, superior on/off-ramps, scalability to any currency with a reliable feed, and capital efficiency. It mirrors how modern institutional FX markets operate. Primary use cases for on-chain NDFs include: 1. **Digital Banks/Wallets:** Enabling multi-currency accounts for international users without leaving the USD stablecoin ecosystem, boosting deposits and retention. 2. **FX Carry Trade Vaults:** Offering access to sovereign interest rate differentials (e.g., earning yield on BRL) in a more stable and scalable format than crypto-native products like Ethena. 3. **Global Enterprise Payments:** Allowing merchants to receive payments in local currency equivalents while settling in USD stablecoins, similar to services offered by Stripe for fiat. The conclusion is that synthetic FX, not native FX stablecoins, is the viable path to integrating foreign exchange into the growing stablecoin digital banking landscape, potentially unlocking the next phase of institutional DeFi and multi-trillion-dollar global adoption.

链捕手5h ago

Why Haven't Forex Stablecoins Taken Off?

链捕手5h ago

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What is LINON

Linde plc Tokenized Stock (Ondo): Revolutionizing Traditional Equity Access Through Blockchain Innovation The emergence of Linde plc Tokenized Stock (Ondo), represented by the ticker $LINON, signifies a monumental shift in the fusion of traditional financial structures and decentralized finance (DeFi). This innovative financial instrument showcases the tremendous potential of blockchain technology to democratize access to traditional equity markets while ensuring the security and regulatory compliance necessary for institutional-grade financial products. Through Ondo Finance's pioneering tokenization platform, $LINON provides a seamless pathway for global investors to engage with one of the world's leading industrial gas companies, Linde plc, creating a blockchain-native representation of the underlying equity. Introduction to Linde plc Tokenized Stock The landscape of financial markets is witnessing a groundbreaking transformation through the tokenization of real-world assets. Linde plc Tokenized Stock (Ondo) epitomizes this revolutionary approach by bridging the gap between conventional stock ownership and blockchain-enabled financial infrastructure. The $LINON token allows investors to gain exposure to one of the prominent industrial companies worldwide through decentralized technology. Operating within Ondo Finance's comprehensive ecosystem, $LINON symbolizes a practical application of tokenization technology that enhances accessibility, efficiency, and global connectivity in traditional financial markets. By leveraging blockchain infrastructure, this tokenized stock enables international investors to participate in U.S. equity markets, overcoming traditional barriers associated with cross-border investing. The significance of $LINON goes beyond technological innovation; it represents a fundamental shift in asset structuring, distribution, and trading in the digital age. This tokenized stock maintains all the economic benefits associated with traditional Linde plc shares while offering improved liquidity, programmable compliance features, and seamless integration with decentralized finance protocols. The development of $LINON indicates a growing acceptance of blockchain technology as a viable means for traditional finance, exemplifying how even well-established assets like Linde plc can integrate into blockchain systems. This approach preserves the core attributes that appeal to investors while introducing advanced capabilities that enhance the overall investment proposition. Project Overview and Objectives Linde plc Tokenized Stock (Ondo) encapsulates a strategic effort to democratize access to traditional equity markets through advanced blockchain technologies. The primary objective of $LINON is to provide approved global investors seamless access to the economic exposure associated with Linde plc shares, furthering an effort to create a more inclusive financial ecosystem. Beyond the digital representation of traditional assets, $LINON endeavors to eliminate barriers of geography and time zones that limit investor participation. Its design ensures that blockchain technology can elevate traditional investment vehicles without undermining the security or compliance requirements expected by investors. Key goals of the project include enhanced liquidity provision, programmable compliance mechanisms, and interoperability with other blockchain networks. Each $LINON token is fortified by actual Linde plc securities housed at U.S.-registered broker-dealers, allowing holders to reap economic advantages akin to traditional stockholders, such as dividend reinvestment. Furthermore, $LINON aims to establish new industry standards for institutional-grade tokenized securities, paving the way for traditional assets to embrace blockchain technology while remaining compliant with regulatory frameworks. By associating itself with a company as reputable as Linde plc, the project opens avenues for exploring tokenized equities catering to both conservative institutional players and daring retail investors. Project Creator and Development Team The vision for Linde plc Tokenized Stock (Ondo) comes from Nathan Allman, founder and CEO of Ondo Finance. His background in traditional finance coupled with expertise in blockchain technology positions him uniquely to navigate the complexities of asset tokenization. Allman's academic journey began at Brown University, focusing on Economics and Biology, equipping him with valuable analytical skills. His time at Goldman Sachs in the Digital Assets division strengthened his understanding of the interplay between financial institutions and emerging technologies, laying the groundwork for his later endeavors in alternative investment strategies. Under Allman's guidance, Ondo Finance has emerged as a leader in asset tokenization, launching $LINON as a flagship example of the company's larger mission towards revolutionizing traditional financial systems using blockchain technology. His commitment to leveraging blockchain for creating institutional-grade financial products has shaped the landscape of real-world asset tokenization. Investment and Funding Structure The growth of Ondo Finance, the platform powering Linde plc Tokenized Stock (Ondo), is bolstered by robust financial backing from prestigious venture capital firms and strategic investors. This strong investment foundation underpins the development of the key infrastructure essential for compliant tokenized securities like $LINON. In August 2021, Ondo Finance secured $4 million in seed funding led by a major venture capital firm, which enabled the company to commence platform development and establish the necessary regulatory processes for tokenizing real-world assets. This early investment cemented Ondo Finance's credibility within the industry. The Series A funding round followed, garnering $20 million with participation from renowned firms committed to transformative technology companies. This backing demonstrated substantial institutional confidence in Ondo Finance's vision, allowing it to hone its approach to asset tokenization through mechanisms that ensure compliance and accessibility. Noteworthy contributors, including institutional investors and experienced partners, have added significant value to Ondo Finance’s development efforts. Their involvement underscores the confidence across sectors in Ondo Finance's approach to bridging traditional finance with blockchain innovations. Technical Infrastructure and Innovation The technical architecture that underpins Linde plc Tokenized Stock (Ondo) represents a sophisticated melding of traditional finance systems and cutting-edge blockchain technology. The architecture's foundation is built on the Ethereum network, renowned for its security and programmability—both critical for intricate financial instruments. The $LINON tokenization process comprises creating a blockchain-native representation of Linde plc shares that preserves economic benefits while augmenting investor capabilities. Each token corresponds to actual shares held at U.S.-registered broker-dealers, creating a compliant custody structure that legitimizes the asset's existence and value. Automated compliance systems are integrated into the tokenization process, managing critical components such as know-your-customer (KYC) verification and anti-money laundering (AML) protocols. This incorporation of programmable compliance empowers $LINON to uphold regulatory standards essential for institutional proliferation. Cross-chain interoperability characterizes the advanced technical features of $LINON. While initially deployed on Ethereum, the framework is designed for expansion to other networks such as Solana and BNB Chain. This adaptability enhances liquidity and accessibility, allowing investors to select their preferred blockchain ecosystems. Historical Timeline and Development Crafting the history of Linde plc Tokenized Stock (Ondo) unfolds in parallel with the evolution of Ondo Finance's tokenization platform. The timeline's inception dates back to March 2021 when Nathan Allman laid the foundations for creating institutional-grade financial products on blockchain infrastructure. The initial funding round in August 2021 provided crucial resources for developing the platform and establishing partnerships necessary for effective tokenization. By January 2023, Ondo Finance launched its tokenized treasury products, establishing mechanisms that would facilitate future tokenized equities such as $LINON. A pivotal milestone arose in February 2025 when Ondo Chain—a Layer 1 blockchain designed specifically for asset tokenization—was introduced. This infrastructure enhances capabilities vital for institutional markets, demonstrating Ondo Finance's long-term commitment to tokenization. Subsequently, the launch of Ondo Global Markets in September 2025 marked the official debut of $LINON. This milestone showcased the successful transition from development to active trading, enabling investors around the world to access American financial markets seamlessly. Ongoing development plans include a targeted expansion of available tokenized assets to over 1,000 by the end of 2025, pointing to a bright future for Ondo Finance's ecosystem and its mission to broaden tokenized equity accessibility. Regulatory Compliance and Legal Framework The legal architecture governing Linde plc Tokenized Stock (Ondo) emphasizes a sophisticated approach to regulatory compliance, allowing tokenized securities to be implemented within a blockchain-based framework. The legal structure governing $LINON spans multiple jurisdictions while maintaining a robust legal footing. Compliance systems ensure that only eligible investors can access the token, enforced through automated verification that aligns with international regulations. This innovative regulatory technology promises real-time enforcement of complex requirements, considerably enhancing efficiency in operating within the regulatory landscape. The custody framework undergirding $LINON ensures that the underlying shares are securely held at U.S.-registered broker-dealers, complying with necessary regulations while delivering blockchain-driven access to investors. The token maintains its economic equivalency and security through this carefully structured custody arrangement. KYC and AML compliance systems are embedded within the smart contract architecture, ensuring integrity and adherence to regulatory practices while fostering transparency for investors. The jurisdictional restrictions mark a commitment to navigating the evolving landscape of international securities laws. Market Impact and Industry Significance The advent of Linde plc Tokenized Stock (Ondo) holds profound implications for the broader financial landscape, symbolizing a clear shift towards blockchain-enabled markets. $LINON serves as a proof-of-concept for integrating traditional companies into blockchain ecosystems, showcasing the potential benefits such as broader accessibility and improved efficiency. The market's response to $LINON indicates a growing acceptance of tokenization among institutional investors, contributing to the emergence of an expanding sector wherein traditional assets can be interconnected with blockchain innovations. The success of $LINON further solidifies market confidence, indicating an overarching shift towards recognizing asset tokenization as a transformative force in finance. Future Development and Expansion Plans The future trajectory for Linde plc Tokenized Stock (Ondo) centers around the expansion of the tokenization ecosystem and enhanced infrastructure supporting blockchain-enabled financial services. Plans for cross-chain integration usher in new opportunities for liquidity and flexibility within the investment framework, with existing capabilities poised for continuous enhancement. With the introduction of Ondo Chain, Ondo Finance aims to transition $LINON to an optimized blockchain environment specifically designed for asset tokenization. This new infrastructure heralds exciting prospects for the development of institutional-grade financial products, ensuring ongoing compatibility with contemporary investment strategies. Further integration with decentralized finance protocols signifies a commitment to empowering $LINON holders through advanced financial strategies. The anticipated expansion of available tokenized assets promises to broaden investor access, enhancing the utility and appeal of the platform. In alignment with ambitions for regulatory expansion, ongoing efforts to secure approvals for new jurisdictions will enhance investor access, further positioning $LINON at the forefront of the burgeoning tokenization market. Conclusion Linde plc Tokenized Stock (Ondo), as represented by the $LINON token, stands at the intersection of traditional finance and blockchain innovation. It embodies a transformative milestone in how financial assets are structured, distributed, and engaged within modern investment ecosystems. The technical sophistication behind $LINON, combined with its regulatory compliance framework, illustrates that asset tokenization can improve financial infrastructure rather than simply digitizing existing products. This pioneering effort not only enhances investor access to U.S. equity markets but also signifies an evolution of how traditional financial services can integrate blockchain technology. As the asset tokenization market grows exponentially, with prospects suggesting significant valuation increases, $LINON paves the way for a future where tokenized securities become standard fixtures in the financial landscape. The trajectory of $LINON will undoubtedly influence how traditional finance adapts to a transformed, blockchain-powered world.

2.8k Total ViewsPublished 2025.12.05Updated 2025.12.05

What is CRMON

Salesforce Tokenized Stock (Ondo): Revolutionising Traditional Equity Access Through Blockchain Innovation The emergence of Salesforce Tokenized Stock (CRMON) marks a pivotal advancement in integrating traditional financial markets with blockchain technology. This innovative approach offers investors unprecedented access to equity exposure through tokenisation. Developed by Ondo Finance, CRMON provides tokenholders with economic exposure equivalent to holding Salesforce stock (CRM) while automatically reinvesting dividends. This effectively bridges the gap between conventional equity markets and decentralised finance (DeFi). Introduction and Comprehensive Overview of Salesforce Tokenized Stock In recent years, the financial landscape has dramatically transformed due to blockchain technology, fundamentally altering how investors access and interact with traditional assets. The development of Salesforce Tokenized Stock (CRMON) is a prime example of this evolution, representing a sophisticated fusion of conventional equity markets with cutting-edge distributed ledger technology. CRMON is a tokenised version of Salesforce stock, emerging from the innovative work of Ondo Finance, a leading platform in the real-world asset tokenisation sector that positions itself as a bridge between traditional finance and decentralised systems. Designed to provide tokenholders with economic exposure that mirrors the performance of the underlying Salesforce stock, CRMON incorporates automatic dividend reinvestment mechanisms. This eliminates many traditional barriers associated with international equity investment, such as complex brokerage relationships, currency conversion challenges, and restricted trading hours. The tokenisation process reimagines stock ownership as a blockchain-native asset while maintaining its economic equivalence with the underlying security, offering enhanced portability and integration capabilities within decentralised finance ecosystems. CRMON transcends its individual utility as an investment instrument to represent a fundamental shift in how financial markets can operate in an increasingly digital world. By maintaining full backing through U.S.-registered broker-dealers and implementing robust compliance frameworks, CRMON demonstrates that tokenised securities can achieve the regulatory standards necessary for institutional adoption while delivering the technological advantages of blockchain infrastructure. Understanding Tokenized Real-World Assets and CRMON's Strategic Position Tokenised real-world assets signify one of the most significant innovations in modern finance, fundamentally reimagining how traditional securities are represented, traded, and utilised within digital ecosystems. CRMON operates as a tokenised equity instrument correlating directly with Salesforce stock while optimising accessibility and efficiency. This aligns with Ondo Finance's broader mission to democratise access to institutional-grade financial products through innovative tokenisation strategies. The tokenisation process guarantees complete economic equivalence with the underlying Salesforce equity. Each CRMON token represents a proportional claim on Salesforce stock held by qualified custodians, with dividend payments automatically reinvested to maintain continuous exposure to total return performance. This structure simplifies dividend management and ensures that tokenholders receive the full economic benefit of their equity exposure, encompassing both capital appreciation and income generation. Ondo Finance's strategy in tokenising Salesforce stock demonstrates its expertise in creating compliant, institutional-grade products that meet traditional financial markets' stringent requirements. The platform’s focus on merging regulatory compliance with blockchain benefits positions it at the forefront of decentralised finance, captivating both institutional and retail investors seeking blockchain-native solutions. The Technology and Innovation Framework Behind CRMON The technological infrastructure supporting CRMON integrates blockchain technology with traditional financial mechanisms, delivering institutional-grade security and compliance while maintaining the operational advantages of decentralised systems. Built on the Ethereum blockchain, CRMON utilises robust smart contract capabilities to ensure transparent, secure operations. The smart contract architecture incorporates layered security and compliance mechanisms, enabling automated compliance checks and real-time asset backing verification. Integration with oracle services maintains accurate pricing and dividend information, ensuring CRMON reflects the underlying Salesforce stock's accurate performance. This architecture delivers automated dividend reinvestments and other corporate actions, eliminating manual processing requirements and directly enhancing tokenholder benefits. Ondo Finance ensures CRMON's security structure includes daily third-party verification of holdings, independent collateral agents, and a multiple-layer custody system through partnerships with established financial institutions. This framework safeguards tokenholder interests against operational risks while providing robust asset backing. The user interface enhances integration capabilities, allowing seamless interaction between CRMON and various decentralised finance protocols, as well as cryptocurrency exchanges. This interoperability enables users to leverage their tokenised equity across multiple platforms, creating sophisticated investment strategies that marry traditional equity characteristics with blockchain-native innovation. Leadership and Corporate Structure of Ondo Finance The leadership team behind CRMON and Ondo Finance blends expertise from traditional finance and blockchain technology, presenting a robust combination of skills essential for successfully bridging conventional markets with decentralised finance. Nathan Allman, the founder and CEO, emerged from a distinguished financial background before establishing Ondo Finance in 2021. Allman's experience includes notable roles at major financial institutions, including significant contributions to developing cryptocurrency market services. His insights into regulatory compliance were paramount in developing products like CRMON that successfully unify traditional securities with blockchain technology. With a team of professionals boasting substantial experience in both conventional finance and blockchain sectors, Ondo Finance's leadership comprises diverse expertise that covers every aspect of tokenised asset development. Justin Schmidt serves as President and COO, contributing unique operational expertise, while Chris Tyrell brings essential compliance knowledge. Investment Landscape and Funding History The investment landscape surrounding Ondo Finance reflects significant institutional confidence in its mission to tokenise real-world assets. The company has raised substantial funds through various investment rounds, attracting leading venture capital firms and strategic investors that recognise the transformative potential of tokenised securities like CRMON. Notably, Ondo Finance completed a successful Series A funding round in 2022, led by well-known venture capital firms. This funding success validates Ondo Finance's innovative approach to creating compliant, institutional-grade tokenised products. In total, Ondo Finance has successfully secured substantial funding, raising significant capital for product development and market expansion, including a noteworthy token sale that reinforced its governance structure through the establishment of the ONDO token. The diverse composition of investors reflects broad market confidence in Ondo Finance's business model, demonstrating support from both traditional and blockchain-native organisations. Operational Mechanics and Technical Implementation The operational framework supporting CRMON exemplifies sophisticated integration of traditional financial mechanisms with blockchain technology. The technical implementation introduces multiple layers of security, compliance, and operational efficiency to meet institutional standards while enhancing accessibility. The tokenisation process begins by acquiring actual Salesforce stock through U.S.-registered broker-dealers, ensuring each CRMON token maintains direct correlation with the underlying equity performance. Smart contracts automate operational processes, including dividend reinvestment and corporate action processing, facilitating a streamlined user experience. The Minting and redemption processes allow authorised participants to manage CRMON tokens effectively. During U.S. trading hours, institutions can mint new tokens by depositing stablecoins that are used to purchase corresponding Salesforce equity. This structure maintains a tight correlation with underlying assets, enhancing liquidity and price discovery. Additionally, the infrastructure supports twenty-four-hour token transfer capabilities, providing CRMON holders with operations outside traditional market hours. This represents a significant advantage over conventional securities ownership, thus promoting integration with decentralised finance applications. Plans for cross-chain compatibility through partnerships signal further ambitions for CRMON's market reach. By expanding to other blockchain networks, Ondo Finance aims to enhance accessibility and user engagement with tokenised equity products. Timeline and Historical Development of Tokenized Equity Innovation The timeline of CRMON's development and Ondo Finance's broader tokenised capabilities demonstrates a systematic innovation process beginning with the company's founding in 2021. 2021: Ondo Finance is founded by Nathan Allman and co-founders, launching initial products focused on structured vault offerings on the Ethereum blockchain. 2022: The company completes substantial funding rounds—both equity and token sales—totaling significant capital and launching initial tokenised U.S. Treasury products. 2023-2024: Ondo Finance experiences substantial growth, establishing partnerships with major financial institutions while expanding its product offerings beyond fixed-income securities. February 2025: Ondo Global Markets is announced, marking the transition into equity tokenisation with plans for accessing over one hundred U.S. stocks and ETFs. September 2025: The official launch of Ondo Global Markets includes CRMON alongside other tokenised equity offerings, marking a significant evolution in Ondo Finance's product ecosystem. This timeline highlights the organisation's rapid growth and its capability to adapt its technological and compliance frameworks to accommodate different asset classes effectively while maintaining security and regulatory integrity. Regulatory Framework and Compliance Approach Ondo Finance's regulatory framework showcases a sophisticated compliance strategy, essential for achieving institutional adoption in the tokenised securities market. The company's strong partnerships with U.S.-registered broker-dealers promote adherence to Securities and Exchange Commission regulations and apply robust investor protections. Acquisitions, such as Oasis Pro—a registered broker-dealer—significantly enhance Ondo Finance's compliance capabilities, ensuring thorough alignment with existing regulatory structures. The company employs independent verification procedures that foster transparency, aiming for a solid performance standards reputation. Furthermore, Ondo Finance's commitment extends to international regulatory compliance, ensuring token access remains restricted to eligible investors while adhering to pertinent cross-border securities regulations. Comprehensive attention to tax implications and reporting requirements fortifies the security and compliance landscape of CRMON, ensuring that investor obligations remain manageable. Future Prospects and Market Positioning The forward-looking landscape for CRMON and Ondo Finance illustrates substantial growth opportunities driven by institutional adoption of blockchain technology and escalating demand for efficient alternatives to conventional securities ownership. Market projections indicate the tokenised asset sector could value multiple trillion dollars by 2030. With plans to scale CRMON offerings significantly and integrate it with a dedicated blockchain infrastructure—Ondo Chain—Ondo Finance aims to elevate its institutional-grade tokenised asset operations. Additionally, the development of strategic partnerships enhances distribution capabilities while establishing the company's credibility in the financial market. Furthermore, the integration of tokenised equity with decentralised finance protocols offers new potential for innovative financial products and strategies previously impossible with traditional securities. These factors underscore CRMON's positioning to effectively capture increased market share and deliver innovative solutions for international investment exposure. Conclusion Salesforce Tokenized Stock (CRMON) symbolises a transformative development within financial markets, successfully bridging traditional equity ownership with blockchain technology to create unprecedented accessibility for global investors. Through Ondo Finance's sophisticated tokenisation framework, CRMON provides complete economic exposure to Salesforce equity performance while enhancing operational advantages that exceed traditional ownership. The launch of CRMON reflects the broader evolution of financial markets towards blockchain infrastructures that maintain regulatory compliance while delivering increased efficiency. Ondo Finance's extensive approach to regulatory adherence, institutional-grade security, and technological innovation solidifies CRMON as a model for future tokenised securities, delivering access previously unattainable in conventional brokerage structures. As the tokenised asset sector continues to develop, CRMON is well-positioned to address historical inefficiencies in capital markets while providing investors with innovative solutions for accessing traditional securities. The outlook for CRMON looks exceptionally promising, supported by ambitious expansion plans, technological innovations, and strategic partnerships, thereby representing a pioneering model of modern financial infrastructure evolving through blockchain integration.

2.9k Total ViewsPublished 2025.12.05Updated 2025.12.05

What is SHOPON

Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo): A Comprehensive Analysis of Real-World Asset Tokenization in Web3 This article delves into the Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), recognised by its ticker symbol $SHOPON, exploring its implications at the intersection of traditional finance and blockchain technology. As a part of Ondo Finance's tokenized securities platform, Shopify’s tokenized stock exemplifies advancements in democratizing access to global capital markets through innovative digital assets. Introduction and Overview of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), or $SHOPON, portrays a pivotal innovation in the realm of tokenized securities, allowing investors to gain economic exposure akin to directly owning shares of Shopify Inc. This token, developed under the umbrella of Ondo Finance, not only provides investors with the ability to hold digital representations of the company’s stock but also integrates features such as automatic reinvestment of dividends. This advancement represents a substantial shift in the landscape of decentralized finance (DeFi), linking conventional equity markets with blockchain solutions designed to enhance accessibility, transparency, and liquidity. By eliminating geographical barriers and enabling 24/7 trading capabilities, $SHOPON is positioned as a bridge connecting traditional financial instruments and the emerging Web3 ecosystem. What is Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), $SHOPON? The $SHOPON token serves as a digital manifestation of Shopify Inc.'s shares, engineered to provide a direct correlation to the underlying asset's performance. Through the utilization of blockchain technology, the token gives holders a mechanism to participate in the economic benefits associated with equity ownership, including capital appreciation and dividend distribution. The unique aspect of $SHOPON lies in its automatic dividend reinvestment mechanism, which allows returns to compound without necessitating active management by the investor. This feature inherently enhances its attractiveness as an investment vehicle, particularly for individuals seeking passive income growth alongside exposure to high-performing equities. The tokenization process is facilitated by the custody of actual Shopify shares through regulated intermediaries, ensuring that every $SHOPON token is verifiably backed by real equity. This structure empowers investors with the dual advantages of both traditional financial characteristics and the innovative benefits tied to blockchain technology. Who is the Creator of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo)? The creator of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), Nathan Allman, is an experienced figure in the finance sector, formerly associated with Goldman Sachs. His rich background includes significant expertise in digital asset development, bridging the gap between traditional finance and cryptocurrencies. Allman’s educational journey, marked by studies at Brown University, provided him with a deep understanding of economics and biology, equipping him with analytical skills that inform his strategic vision. In 2021, he founded Ondo Finance, committing to developing tokenized securities that meet institutional-grade standards while leveraging blockchain's transformative capabilities. Under Allman's leadership, Ondo Finance has focused on creating compliant and innovative financial products that empower a diverse investor base. Who are the Investors of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo)? The investment landscape surrounding Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) is notably robust, underpinned by significant institutional support. Primarily, Pantera Capital stands out as a strategic partner through the Ondo Catalyst initiative, a $250 million commitment aimed at accelerating the development of on-chain capital markets. This partnership not only signifies institutional confidence in the potential of tokenized assets but also reinforces Ondo Finance's operational capabilities and market positioning. The funding pathways have included earlier rounds that amassed millions in seed funding and further structural investments, solidifying relationships with both venture capital firms and private investors. Moreover, the financial framework is complemented by strategic partnerships with established financial institutions and technology companies, enhancing Ondo’s infrastructure and operational expertise. How Does Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), $SHOPON Work? At the core of $SHOPON's operational framework is a sophisticated system integrating traditional finance mechanisms with blockchain technology. The custody of actual Shopify shares ensures that token holders retain authentic economic exposure, safeguarding their investments in line with recognized legal structures. The smart contracts employed in managing $SHOPON handle various functions, including automatic dividend reinvestment and ownership transfer, offering instant settlement and increased liquidity, marking a significant departure from conventional trading systems plagued by multi-day settlement delays. By providing interoperability with other decentralized finance applications, $SHOPON empowers holders with potentially lucrative opportunities for advanced investment strategies, including lending and automated market making. This complex integration presents a unique value proposition, catering to both traditional and crypto-native investors. The innovative structure of $SHOPON also allows for real-time settlements and transactions documented on the blockchain, delivering unparalleled transparency and security—a major advancement over standard equity trading practices. Timeline of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) March 2021: Nathan Allman establishes Ondo Finance, initially focusing on decentralized finance yield optimization. August 2021: Completion of a $4 million seed funding round led by Pantera Capital. January 2023: Launch of initial tokenized treasury security products, laying the groundwork for future equity tokenization. July 2025: Announcement of the Ondo Catalyst initiative, a strategic investment program valued at $250 million, aimed at propelling the development of tokenization in capital markets. September 3, 2025: Launch of Ondo Global Markets featuring over 100 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs, including $SHOPON. Technical Implementation and Blockchain Infrastructure Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) operates on a technical architectural framework that marries blockchain protocols with traditional financial custody arrangements. The ecosystem leverages Ethereum's smart contract capabilities, providing seamless transaction management while ensuring compliance with regulatory standards through established financial custodians. Central to this architecture are security measures and transparent transaction records that affirm the legitimacy of each tokenholder's economic stake. With automated features managed by intricate smart contracts, $SHOPON not only streamlines ownership transfers but also allows for the tactical reinvestment of dividends—a hallmark of modern investment strategies. Moreover, the incorporation of LayerZero technology facilitates cross-chain interoperability, making $SHOPON accessible across multiple blockchain environments while preserving its functional robustness. This forward-thinking technical design positions $SHOPON as an adaptable asset within the larger DeFi milieu. Regulatory Framework and Compliance Architecture $SHOPON's regulatory framework is built upon the meticulous navigation of existing financial regulations that govern securities. The custody arrangements for the underlying Shopify shares are managed by U.S.-regulated broker-dealers, ensuring compliance and protection for investors. By maintaining a separation between the blockchain tokenization process and traditional custody, $SHOPON adheres to legal requirements while offering innovative functionalities that challenge conventional constraints. This dual-layered compliance approach enhances investor confidence and underscores Ondo Finance's commitment to regulatory integrity. Notably, the availability of $SHOPON is tailored to international investors from regions such as Asia-Pacific, Europe, and Africa, as regulatory parameters in the U.S. and U.K. present challenges in accessing tokenized securities. Market Access and Global Distribution Strategy The distribution strategy of $SHOPON is keenly designed to optimize global access while conforming to regulatory standards. The platform aims to establish comprehensive coverage for eligible investors across multiple regions, effectively dismantling traditional barriers through the implementation of blockchain technology. Integration with various cryptocurrency wallets and exchanges also promotes user-friendliness and accessibility, establishing a streamlined experience for investors to manage their holdings. Moreover, the 24/7 trading capabilities afforded by the tokenized model allow participants to react promptly to market shifts, fundamentally transforming how global equities are accessed and traded. Technology Integration and Cross-Chain Functionality The remarkable technological underpinnings of $SHOPON propagate its multi-chain functionality, set to expand its reach beyond Ethereum to networks such as Solana and BNB Chain. Such cross-chain capabilities allow users flexibility when navigating between blockchains, concurrently leveraging distinct network attributes to optimize their trading experience. LayerZero serves as the backbone for ensuring decentralized transfers between networks while providing the requisite security and speed, quintessential for maintaining investor trust. This comprehensive interoperability illustrates $SHOPON's commitment to being a versatile, user-centric asset in the evolving investment landscape. Ecosystem Integration and DeFi Compatibility Incorporating $SHOPON into broader DeFi protocols signifies its potential beyond traditional stock ownership. Token holders can leverage their holdings for various sophisticated strategies and applications, enhancing investment returns and liquidity management. By establishing a presence in lending protocols and automated trading systems, $SHOPON effectively democratizes access to advanced financial strategies previously limited to institutional investors. Such integration contributes to a more competitive and dynamic financial landscape, where individual investors can capitalize on tools typically reserved for larger entities. Risk Management and Security Framework Security remains paramount in the operational infrastructure of $SHOPON. The tokenization framework employs multiple layers of protection—beginning with regulated custody of the underlying Shopify shares. The operational protocols establish rigorous auditing, key management, and transaction monitoring standards, thus safeguarding against potential vulnerabilities. Moreover, meticulous adherence to evolving regulatory requirements provides an extra layer of security, fortifying investor protections and institutional compliance. Market Impact and Industry Implications The introduction of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) heralds a transformative shift in how financial markets operate, emphasizing the potential of tokenized securities to reshape traditional investment paradigms. The successful integration of $SHOPON encapsulates the efficiencies inherent in blockchain technology and opens avenues for new user demographics previously barred from extensive market participation. The impact extends beyond the immediate benefits to token holders, indicating broader trends that may challenge the status quo of investment services, particularly in addressing geographic restrictions and operational costs typically associated with traditional brokerage platforms. Undeniably, $SHOPON encapsulates the potential for traditional institutions to innovate further, leveraging the increasing demand for seamless blockchain access to complement existing financial infrastructure. Future Development Roadmap and Strategic Vision As Ondo Finance looks forward, the trajectory of $SHOPON rests on ambitious goals aimed at broadening the spectrum of available tokenized assets significantly. Over the next few years, plans are in place to expand to more than 1,000 tokenized securities, further enhancing market participation and investment options for individuals worldwide. Continued integration with traditional financial actors, development of specialized institutional products, and enhancements in automated trading capabilities will ensure that $SHOPON maintains its position at the forefront of financial innovation. Regulatory collaboration will also remain a focal point, establishing a framework that not only supports the compliance requirements but also promotes a healthy environment for tokenized asset proliferation. Conclusion and Market Significance In summary, Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), represented by the ticker $SHOPON, is more than merely a tokenized equity offering; it embodies the innovation possible when traditional finance collides with modern blockchain applications. With a robust technical architecture, a commitment to compliance, and a clear strategic vision, $SHOPON exemplifies the potential for tokenized assets to enhance liquidity, accessibility, and functionality in capital markets. As the global investment landscape evolves, the transformative implications of $SHOPON extend beyond individual investors to revolutionize how financial instruments are perceived, traded, and utilized within both traditional and decentralized frameworks.