【一周靓文】对冲基金做空 USDT 战略失败；加密市场熊市快过去了吗？

火币资讯Published on 2022-08-06Last updated on 2022-08-08

Abstract

市值最大的稳定币发行公司 Tether (USDT) 表示，一些对冲基金试图做空USDT 的举措已经失败。

一周靓文，介绍过去一周最值得关注的热点文章，帮助投资者深刻理解市场动态。

1、《大型机构持仓量明显上升，但市场纠结近况未解》

7 月 30 日公布的最新一期 CFTC CME 比特币持仓周报（ 7 月 20 日 - 7 月 26 日）显示，比特币标准合约总持仓量自 14512 上升至 14957，该数值过去几周的持续上涨势头得以延续。这一统计周期内比特币的行情表现比较「有趣」，整个统计周期与最近一轮价格回调几乎完美重叠，周内比特币价格回落了约 2000 美元，不过在统计周期结束后价格再度反弹，截止发文时行情几乎收复了统计周期内的全数跌幅。考虑到上一统计周期内大多数账户都做出了偏多的选择，只有规模最大的经销商账户坚定做空，这种市场表现下市场情绪发否发生变化，将是本期持仓周报的关键看点。

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2、《加密市场出现上涨指标，熊市真的快过去了吗？》

在许多方面，最近比特币和以太坊的积极价格走势为经历了近九个月的持续下跌趋势的多头带来了期待已久的好消息。2022 年的熊市对数字资产领域造成了很多不利的影响。在经历了市场持续的避险情绪之后，目前的这一反弹究竟只是熊市中的一次缓解，还是牛市起步的预兆吸引了大量的关注。

在本文中，我们将以有数字资产的链上活动作为基准来讨论这一概念，我们需要厘清市场是否正在发出新的进入信号，或者这次反弹仅仅只是昙花一现。

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3、《以太坊伦敦升级一周年，EIP-1559 带来了哪些故事？》

2021 年，以太坊经历了两轮比较重要的硬分叉升级。首先是在区块高度 12,244,000 的柏林硬分叉，升级内容包括了对合约的各种优化，涵盖 Gas 效率、对以太坊虚拟机（EVM）读取代码方式的更新以及防范 DDOS 攻击的其他更改等。

如果说柏林硬分叉升级只是在当时以太坊基础上的一些小修小补，那么于区块高度 12,965,000（北京时间 2021 年 8 月 5 日）完成的伦敦硬分叉升级则是对以太坊在 Gas 机制上的一次「改革」。

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4、《对冲基金做空 USDT 的战略失败》

市值最大的稳定币发行公司 Tether (USDT) 表示：一些对冲基金试图做空USDT 的举措已经失败，因为他们的理论依据完全错误，这些对冲基金将 Terra 的倒闭视为做空 USDT 的原因，“这是对加密货币市场和 Tether 都有根本性的误解”。

2022年3月随着美联储开始加息，3月11日彭博社报导称：资产管理规模达40 亿美元的对冲基金Fir Tree 正在大举做空Tether，理由是认为Tether 储备金中的商业票据有大部分与中国房地产开发商有关，这些商业票据的高违约风险可能导致其储备大幅下降。

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5、《以太坊合并的现状，合并后的MEV和矿工》

合并明显的改变了以太坊的货币政策，以太坊发行减少了约90%。在6-12个月内，验证者的本金(32个ETH)和新发行的也都将缺乏流动性，并将被“卡”在信标链上。通货紧缩的货币政策和质押ETH需求的增加可能会导致流通的ETH供应显著收缩。

来自以太坊社区的评论暗示了9月份合并的软目标。一系列市场指标显示，市场预计合并至少会在年底前发生。

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