Stablecoin Pattern Suggests Massive Bitcoin Breakout May Be Incoming, According to Crypto Analytics Firm Santiment

Daily HodlPublished on 2022-08-03Last updated on 2022-08-03

Abstract

Santiment also notes that Bitcoin’s price is now in line with its valuation based on the network value-to-transaction (NVT) model

Crypto analytics firm Santiment says that the dwindling supply of stablecoins may be a sign that a massive Bitcoin (BTC) breakout is on the horizon.

According to the market intelligence firm, the circulating supply of Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), the two biggest stablecoins by market cap, has been dramatically decreasing since May 2022.

Santiment says that the volume of these two assets continues to decline even as the price of Bitcoin rises, which in the past has foreshadowed parabolic BTC rallies, specifically in July 2021 right before the king crypto went from the $29,000 level all the way to $69,000.

“Stablecoin circulation kept going down even on a growing market. We might say that [the] first significant growth happened on a decreasing circulation. Stablecoins tried to heat up strongly, but no, the market didn’t go up.

The best pattern could be [stablecoins] still decreasing [during a] recovering market. Like nowadays. When stablecoins don’t believe in recovery yet, preferring to wait. We’re probably witnessing the same as July 2021 now, at least on two stablecoins.”

Source: Santiment

Santiment also notes that Bitcoin’s price is now in line with its valuation based on the network value-to-transaction (NVT) model, a metric aiming to gauge an asset’s price based on the ratio between its daily market cap and daily circulation.

“Bitcoin jumped +18% in July after [the] NVT model’s growing bullish divergence in May and June finally saw a price bounce come to fruition. With a neutral signal now as prices have risen and token circulation has declined slightly, August can move either direction.”

Bitcoin is changing hands at $23,297 at time of writing, a 1.25% dip on the day.

Playnance’s $GCOIN Lists on KoinBX Amid Rapid Growth in India

Playnance's native token, $GCOIN, has been listed on the cryptocurrency exchange KoinBX as of June 18. This move aims to enhance accessibility for its rapidly growing community, particularly in India, where the blockchain-powered Web3 iGaming ecosystem has gained significant traction. Over 130 partners in Playnance's "Be the Boss" program have built communities engaging thousands of active players in the region. The "Be the Boss" model allows participants to create and manage their own gaming communities, earning rewards tied to community activity. CEO Pini Peter noted India's high engagement, with community leaders successfully building player networks. One partner, Dr. Nicolas, reported earning over $57,000 through the program in recent months, highlighting both the financial rewards and the opportunity to grow an engaged community. $GCOIN serves as the ecosystem's core utility token, incentivizing participation and aligning the interests of players and community leaders ("Bosses"). The listing on KoinBX is part of Playnance's strategy to expand globally, increasing the token's utility and accessibility by combining community ownership, gamified engagement, and blockchain-based incentives. Founded in 2020, Playnance is a Web3 iGaming infrastructure company focused on creating live, non-custodial, on-chain products to onboard mainstream users. It currently processes approximately one million transactions daily, aiming to simplify the user experience while maintaining full on-chain transparency.

TheNewsCrypto28m ago

Playnance’s $GCOIN Lists on KoinBX Amid Rapid Growth in India

TheNewsCrypto28m ago

STRC Hits Historic Low, Saylor's Perpetual Motion Machine Grinds to a Halt

STRC, the perpetual preferred stock issued by MicroStrategy to fund its Bitcoin purchases, hit a historic low of $85.32, a 17% discount to its $100 par value. Designed as a "digital credit engine" to trade stably near par and enable continuous share issuance for buying Bitcoin, its plunge signals a breakdown in this model. Three key factors drove the decline: 1. Bitcoin's price fell over 50% from its peak, trading around $63,000 amid hawkish Fed signals. 2. MicroStrategy's cash reserves were depleted after a $1.5 billion convertible note repayment, slashing the dividend coverage for STRC's 11.5% yield to ~7 months. The company then sold 32 BTC to cover dividends—Michael Saylor's first Bitcoin sale since 2022—damaging the "never sell" narrative. 3. A competing Bitcoin-backed preferred stock, Strive's SATA, offers a higher yield (~13%) and daily dividends, drawing investors away from STRC. The drop triggers a negative cycle: STRC below par halts ATM share issuances, cutting off a key funding source for Bitcoin buys and potentially forcing more BTC sales for dividends, further eroding confidence. While Saylor argues the model is mathematically sound—needing only 2.3% annual Bitcoin growth to sustain itself—the market is testing the resilience of the leveraged Bitcoin treasury strategy in a bear market. The STRC price now reflects rising skepticism about this financial machinery's durability during downturns.

marsbit48m ago

STRC Hits Historic Low, Saylor's Perpetual Motion Machine Grinds to a Halt

marsbit48m ago

A Guide to Grayscale’s ‘Bottom Fishing’: Using Cash Flow to Assess Cryptocurrency Value

**Title:** Grayscale's Guide to Bottom-Fishing: Valuing Cryptoassets Using Cash Flows **Summary:** This report by Grayscale Research presents a fundamental valuation framework for cryptocurrency assets, moving beyond pure speculation to analyze those with underlying cash flows. It distinguishes between "commodity-like" assets (e.g., Bitcoin) and "cash-flow" assets, primarily within DeFi. Using the leading decentralized lending protocol Aave as a case study, the analysis applies traditional financial methodologies like Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiples. Key findings indicate that AAVE tokens are currently undervalued. Despite recent challenges, the protocol's strong revenue growth, ~50% net profit margin, and diversified treasury support a fundamental valuation range of $80-$100 per token (compared to a ~$75 market price at the time of writing). In a base-case scenario driven by stablecoin adoption and regulatory clarity, the fair value could rise to around $175 within a year. The report emphasizes that protocol success does not automatically translate to token value. It critically examines the "value capture" mechanisms—such as buybacks, burns, and staking rewards—that channel protocol profits to token holders. Furthermore, it addresses the legal and governance complexities of Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), noting their difference from traditional corporate equity but highlighting how robust, transparent governance can align protocol economics with holder interests. The conclusion is that the crypto market is maturing, with capital increasingly flowing towards projects with demonstrable fundamentals, real adoption, and disciplined capital allocation, creating opportunities for value-based investors.

marsbit1h ago

A Guide to Grayscale’s ‘Bottom Fishing’: Using Cash Flow to Assess Cryptocurrency Value

marsbit1h ago

After semiconductors lead the gains, are funds buying into AI orders or a macroeconomic rebound?

After US-Iran talks led to a temporary ceasefire and framework for reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz, U.S. stocks rose on June 18, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.9%. The semiconductor and AI hardware sectors outperformed. This rally stemmed primarily from reduced geopolitical risk, which lowered oil prices and inflation expectations, easing discount rate pressure on high-valuation growth stocks like tech. The key question is not whether tech rebounded, but the nature of the rebound. The market appears to be selectively repricing AI infrastructure plays rather than broadly chasing AI narratives. Gains were concentrated in chips, optical interconnects, memory, and domestic manufacturing—segments tied to tangible data center build-outs and capital expenditure. Intel's ~10% surge, fueled by a Trump statement about potential Apple collaboration, exemplifies this mixed dynamic. It reflects policy catalysts and domestic manufacturing sentiment more than confirmed fundamentals. Meanwhile, strong earnings from companies like Astera Labs (revenue up 93% YoY) provided concrete evidence of AI-driven demand in hardware. In essence, the rally represents a risk-premium recalibration. Lower Middle East tensions opened a valuation repair window, and capital flowed first into AI infrastructure segments with visible near-term revenue streams. The sustainability of this move hinges on upcoming Q2 earnings, specifically continued strength in cloud provider capex, AI server orders, and hardware company guidance. Policy hopes alone are insufficient; the cycle needs validation from orders and financials.

marsbit2h ago

After semiconductors lead the gains, are funds buying into AI orders or a macroeconomic rebound?

marsbit2h ago

Kraken Adds Solana On-Chain Token Trading Directly Inside Its App

Kraken has integrated on-chain Solana token trading directly into its main app, eliminating the need for users to use a separate wallet or manage seed phrases. Eligible customers in the U.S. and over 100 countries can now trade approximately 2,500 verified Solana-based tokens within the familiar Kraken interface. This move aims to simplify decentralized trading by using embedded wallet technology from Privy and Solana DEX protocols to handle transactions in the background, while displaying on-chain holdings alongside centralized exchange balances. The exchange chose Solana due to its fast-moving token markets and retail trader familiarity, offering access to assets that often appear on-chain before centralized listings. However, Kraken clarifies that these on-chain tokens have not undergone the same review process as centralized listings, meaning market risks remain. This integration reflects a broader trend of major exchanges incorporating DeFi features to retain users who seek early access to new tokens. While not replacing advanced DeFi wallets, Kraken's solution seeks to make on-chain trading more accessible to a mainstream retail audience.

bitcoinist2h ago

Trading

Spot

Futures