Key Takeaways
Are institutions still interested in ETH?
Only the treasury firm BitMine bought the dip. But spot ETFs saw the highest monthly sell-off.
Will $3k slow the plunge?
On-chain data showed a reversal was likely, but the macro print on November 20 could offer much clarity.
Institutional bid for Ethereum [ETH] is currently coming from BitMine Immersion alone. The Tom Lee-led treasury firm acquired an extra 54K ETH [worth $173 million]. But the spot U.S. ETH ETF complex was fully in a risk-off mode.
So far in November, ETF investors have dumped $1.42 billion, marking the highest monthly sell-off since the products launched in 2024.
Source: SoSo Value
Will $3k support hold for longer?
Even leveraged ETH bets by institutions have cooled off considerably, as shown by nearly $4 billion in Open Interest [OI] wiped out since the 10 October flash crash.
With it, the ETH basis trade, which involves buying spot ETH ETF and shorting on CME, has shrunk from 10% to 3% before steadying above 4%.
Source: Velo
Despite the mixed institutional demand for ETH, the asset has managed to defend the $3k support for the past four days.
In fact, according to Swissblock’s analysts, the altcoin triggered a bottom signal, based on the firm’s proprietary Liquidity Index.
The analytics firm added,
“It’s a matter of time: if liquidity is rebuilt in the coming weeks, the next expansion leg opens.”
Source: Altcoin Vector
Notably, a similar signal was flagged in late 2024 and early 2025. In each case, the liquidity reset was followed by recoveries above $4k. If history repeats, ETH may rebound soon.
The Options traders’ activity reinforced a similar outlook. Over the past 24 hours, most of the call buying [bullish bets, represented by green bars] targeted $4000 and $3100 levels by 21st or 28th November.
Source: Arkham
For bearish bets [red bars] and hedging activity, players sought protection against a decline to $3k and $2,500 for the end-November and December periods.
Put differently, some sophisticated players expected the plunge to hold at $2.5k if $3k support cracks.
Overall, the market focus will shift to 20th November for the September Jobs report and clues on potential Fed rate cuts.
A strong labor market would likely prompt the Fed to pause the December rate cut and could trigger another wave of selling.
However, a weak report could boost the odds of a rate cut and likely lead to relief and recovery.
