Эксперт спрогнозировал ралли биткоина благодаря «вертолетным» деньгам Трампа

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-08-09Last updated on 2025-11-10

Президент США Дональд Трамп анонсировал программу «дивидендов» для американцев за счет поступлений от торговых пошлин.

«Каждый получит дивиденды в размере как минимум $2000, за исключением граждан с высокими доходами», — написал политик в своей соцсети Truth Social.

В настоящее время Верховный суд страны рассматривает законность предлагаемых президентом тарифных мер.

Трейдеры на рынках прогнозов скептически оценивают шансы на одобрение. На Polymarket и Kalshi показатель составляет 23%.

Источник: Polymarket.

По словам аналитиков The Kobeissi Letter, выплаты могут получить около 85% взрослого населения США, или 220 млн человек. В таком случае общая сумма дивидендов составит $440 млрд.

Stimulus checks are back:

President Trump just announced the "tariff dividend," a payment of AT LEAST $2,000 per American.

We expect 85%+ of US adults to receive this, resulting in $400+ BILLION handed out.

All as US debt nears $40 trillion.

What's next? Let us explain. pic.twitter.com/1xVSyq4UUN
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 9, 2025

Эксперты предупредили об инфляционных рисках. Аналогичные стимулы в 2020 году разогнали инфляцию до 10%. Сейчас она составляет 3%.

Мнения

Гендиректор Damped Spring Advisors Энди Констан отметил, что Трамп не обладает полномочиями единолично утверждать подобные выплаты. Решения принимает законодательная власть.

All these guys are motherfucking panicked. This 2000 can not be legislated so is fake news https://t.co/CcYaZOBfF8
— Andy Constan (@dampedspring) November 9, 2025

Эксперт выразил сомнение, что Конгресс одобрит инициативу президента.

Специалисты в области налогов и бюджета отметили несоответствие между объемом собранных тарифных поступлений и заявленными целями выплат.

По оценке вице-президента по федеральной налоговой политике Эрики Йорк, на обещанные Трампом дивиденды потребуется как минимум $300 млрд. Торговые пошлины пока принесли только $120 млрд.

В контексте общего влияния тарифов на бюджет финансовые перспективы программы выглядят еще более сомнительными, заявила эксперт. Она пояснила, что каждый полученный от торговых пошлин доллар обходится бюджету в 24 цена из-за сокращения поступлений от подоходного налога и социальных взносов.

С учетом косвенного эффекта чистая бюджетная выручка снижается примерно до $90 млрд.

Влияние

Соучредитель Morgan Creek Digital Энтони Помплиано считает, что в случае реализации инициатива Трампа окажет положительное влияние на фондовый и криптовалютный рынки.

The President of the United States just announced a $2,000+ dividend to American citizens that are not high income.

Stocks and bitcoin only know to go higher in response to stimulus. pic.twitter.com/ZDoOfywK3R
— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) November 9, 2025

Ранее аналитики Bitfinex выразили схожее мнение, проведя параллель с событиями 2020 года. Тогда связанные с пандемией COVID-19 выплаты стимулировали приток средств от розничных инвесторов и стали одним из факторов роста биткоина.

В марте 2020 года президент США подписал инициативу на $2 трлн. Она предполагала выплаты до $1200 гражданам с скорректированным валовым доходом до $75 000.

За тот период цена биткоина подскочила на 1050% — с $6000 в марте 2020 года до $69 000 к ноябрю 2021 года. Однако рост также совпал с количественным смягчением ФРС. Регулятор объявил о программе выкупа облигаций на $4 трлн, увеличив объем денежной массы.

Текущая выплата «дивидендов» тоже может сопровождаться с благоприятной для криптовалют политикой Федрезерва. Инвесторы ожидают, что на заседании 10 декабря регулятор снизит ключевую ставку еще на 25 базисных пунктов.

Источник: CME FedWatch.

Напомним, возможное завершение шатдауна в США взбодрило крипторынок.

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