CryptoQuant: провал уровня $101 000 нанесет удар по бычьему рынку

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-04-04Last updated on 2025-11-05

Уровень $101 000 стал решающим рубежом в противостоянии быков и медведей за дальнейшее движение биткоина, заявил аналитик CryptoQuant под ником CryptoOnchain.

Bitcoin’s $107k Fortress Breached

“If the bulls succeed in defending this level (101K), the recent drop could be classified as a deviation and a buying opportunity. However, a failure to hold and a daily close below it would deliver a severe blow to the bullish market… pic.twitter.com/KwBUNyl3iy

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 5, 2025

Эксперт отметил, что цена первой криптовалюты упала ниже ключевой поддержки на отметке $107 000 после 130-дневной консолидации. Обвал до $98 000 спровоцировал каскад ликвидаций на фьючерсном рынке.

По данным аналитика, за последние сутки трейдеры потеряли $640 млн в длинных позициях. Это второй по величине суточный объем ликвидаций лонгов с июня 2021 года. Каскадное закрытие позиций усилило падение цены и выбило с рынка трейдеров с высоким левериджем.

После достижения локального минимума на отметке $98 000 активизировались покупатели, вернув котировки к уровню $101 000. Эта отметка совпадает с нижней границей долгосрочного восходящего канала, который определяет бычью структуру рынка с октября 2023 года.

По словам CryptoOnchain, при удержании уровня $101 000 снижение можно будет рассматривать как краткосрочную «девиацию» и потенциальную возможность для покупки. Однако дневное закрытие свечи под этим уровнем нанесет удар по бычьей структуре и откроет путь к более глубокой коррекции.

Аналитик Михаэль ван де Поппе назвал ключевой ценовой уровень для биткоина и отметил, что волатильность на рынке останется высокой.

This remains to be the crucial level for #Bitcoin.

Tons of volatility on the markets at this point, and I think it will remain like that, but given the fact that $112K rejected, this has become the most important level to check for potential bounces. pic.twitter.com/WRxrDKcr53

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) November 5, 2025

По его словам, после отката от уровня $112 000, именно текущая зона поддержки стала ключевой для потенциального отскока.

Техническая коррекция?

Биткоин-евангелист Степан Гершуни в своем Facebook отметил, что за последний месяц рынок потерял более триллиона долларов капитализации.

По его словам, причины падения — финансовые и технические, «отголоски» массового делевериджа 10 октября.

Гершуни подчеркнул, что фундаментально сектор силен: принятие криптовалют «на максимуме», крупные банки работают над внедрением стейблкоинов, а регуляторная среда стала наиболее благоприятной за всю историю.

Текущие пессимистичные настроения на рынке он сравнил с периодом краха биржи FTX, что может привести к затяжному медвежьему тренду.

Параллельно Гершуни указал на кризис ликвидности в США. По его мнению, у ФРС есть выбор: запустить новый раунд количественного смягчения или спровоцировать финансовый кризис, который затронет все рынки.

В долгосрочной перспективе криптоиндустрия «выглядит позитивно», а ее массовое принятие «уже неизбежно», в отличие от циклов 2017 и 2021 годов, заключил он.

Strategy не продаст свои биткоины

Аналитик Вилли Ву заявил, что компании Strategy не придется продавать свои биткоин-резервы для покрытия долга во время следующего спада на рынке. Опасения сообщества по этому поводу он назвал необоснованными.

MSTR liquidation in the next bear market? I doubt it,

Here's their debt, the date the debt is due and the price MSTR stock needs to exceed to prevent partial liquidation of their BTC treasury to pay the debt. Equivalent BTC price assumes mNAV 1.0 pic.twitter.com/AzVgecI7i2

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) November 4, 2025

Основная часть долга Strategy представлена конвертируемыми старшими облигациями. Компания имеет право платить по обязательствам по своему усмотрению — деньгами, акциями или комбинацией этих способов.

По словам Ву, для погашения долга в $1,01 млрд к 15 сентября 2027 года без продажи криптовалюты акции Strategy должны стоить выше $183,19. Этот порог соответствует цене биткоина в $91 502.

Аналитик под псевдонимом The Bitcoin Therapist добавил, что для вынужденной продажи цифрового золота цена актива должна «показать ужасную динамику».

Would be one hell of a sustained bear market to see any liquidation for Strategy.

Bitcoin would have to perform horribly.

— The ₿itcoin Therapist (@TheBTCTherapist) November 4, 2025

Ву допустил риск частичной ликвидации резервов, если биткоин не покажет достаточно быстрого роста во время ожидаемого бычьего рынка в 2028 году.

Стратегии других публичных компаний

Не всем компаниям удается неукоснительно следовать стратегии. Французская Sequans Communications реализовала 970 BTC для частичного погашения конвертируемого долга. Сумма сделки составила около $94,5 млн.

Японская компания Metaplanet, наоборот, привлекает средства для покупки биткоинов. 31 октября фирма получила кредит на $100 млн под залог своих резервов. Средства направят на покупку новых монет, развитие бизнеса и возможный выкуп акций.

According to Coinpost, MetaPlanet secured a $100 million loan on October 31 by collateralizing its Bitcoin holdings. The funds will be used to acquire additional Bitcoin, expand its income-generating business, and potentially conduct share buybacks. As of October 31, MetaPlanet…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) November 5, 2025

На конец октября Metaplanet владела 30 823 BTC.

По данным CoinGecko, за последний месяц акции Strategy упали на 16,7% на фоне коррекции биткоина.

INSIGHT: @Strategy is down 16.7% this month following $BTC’s recent drop but still holds $17.8B in unrealized gains.

View profile: https://t.co/oNQRd7VwQv pic.twitter.com/xK2ZEddDsV

— CoinGecko (@coingecko) November 5, 2025

При этом нереализованная прибыль компании от удержания криптовалюты составляет $17,8 млрд. Всего фирма владеет 641 205 BTC.

Напомним, в ноябре аналитики Wintermute назвали причины стагнации крипторынка.

«Экстремальный страх»: биткоин провалил психологическую отметку $100 000

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