Polymarket планирует вернуться в США до конца ноября

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-05-28Last updated on 2025-10-29

Платформа предсказаний Polymarket планирует перезапустить торговые услуги в США уже в ближайшие недели. Об этом сообщает Bloomberg со ссылкой на осведомленные источники.

Возвращение после регуляторного разрешения

Согласно отчету, Polymarket намерена предложить ограниченные торговые операции для американских резидентов до конца ноября, сделав акцент на ставках на спортивные события. Сообщение о перезапуске появилось спустя два месяца после того, как Комиссия по торговле товарными фьючерсами США (CFTC) выдала письмо о непринятии мер криптовалютной бирже деривативов и клиринговой палате, приобретенным Polymarket.

Это решение открыло путь для компании «запуститься в США», как заявил генеральный директор Шейн Коплан (Shayne Coplan). Согласно сентябрьским отчетам, в случае возобновления работы на американском рынке компания может получить оценку до $10 млрд. По состоянию на июнь платформа предсказаний оценивалась примерно в $1 млрд после раунда финансирования на $200 млн.

Конкуренция в сфере предсказательных рынков

28 октября веб-сайт Polymarket показывал лист ожидания с сообщением о том, что вскоре станет «доступен для американских трейдеров». Тем временем президент США входит в бизнес рынков предсказаний — Trump Media and Technology Group, компания, соучредителем которой является Трамп, объявила о планах запуска прогностических рынков в через свою социальную платформу Truth Social.

Медиакомпания заявила о партнерстве с криптовалютной биржей Crypto.com, чтобы присоединиться к таким платформам, как Kalshi и Polymarket, в предложении прогностических рынков пользователям.

Развитие рынков предсказаний в США набирает обороты на фоне растущего интереса к альтернативным формам торговли и ставок. Возвращение Polymarket может значительно изменить ландшафт американского рынка предсказаний, особенно учитывая растущую конкуренцию со стороны как традиционных, так и криптовалютных платформ.

Uniswap Founder: When Stocks and Treasuries Are Fully On-Chain, How Will AMMs Restructure the Global Market?

Uniswap founder Hayden Adams argues that as traditional assets like stocks become tokenized, Automated Market Makers (AMMs) could fundamentally restructure global markets. The core insight is that AMMs are most efficient in "correlated pairs"—such as NVDA/SPY—where assets move together. In these pairs, passive liquidity providers (LPs) who are willing to hold the underlying assets face lower inventory risk and minimal hedging costs compared to traditional, delta-neutral market makers. This cost advantage allows AMMs to undercut professional firms. Tokenization enables assets to trade directly against each other on a shared settlement layer, rather than being siloed in dollar-based systems. Adams observes this pattern already emerging in DeFi, where assets naturally pair with correlated benchmarks (e.g., ETH for Ethereum assets). He believes this will extend to tokenized stocks, with liquidity concentrating in low-volatility correlated pairs, while a few high-volume "bridge pairs" (like SPY/USD) handle dollar conversions. The article highlights that early correlated markets for tokenized stocks already exist (e.g., on Robinhood's chain), and Uniswap v4 hooks like DualPool can further boost LP returns. Adams draws a parallel to the rise of passive index funds, suggesting passive AMM liquidity could similarly democratize market-making and capture significant market share from traditional finance. A response from crypto KOL Cody adds practical analysis, noting that while the correlated pair strategy reduces impermanent loss, current on-chain fees may not yet fully compensate for it. He shares his own LP strategy using valuation models, emphasizing that AMMs offer a novel, low-cost market-making avenue for those willing to hold inventory.

marsbit7m ago

Uniswap Founder: When Stocks and Treasuries Are Fully On-Chain, How Will AMMs Restructure the Global Market?

marsbit7m ago

Goldman Sachs Buys Volatility, Turns Bitcoin into a Yield Business

Goldman Sachs acquired NEOS Investments for up to $2.25 billion, gaining a suite of ETFs that generate income by selling options against crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin. This includes the BTCI fund, which sells call options against Bitcoin ETF holdings to capture high premiums from crypto’s volatility, offering investors stable cash flow—around 27% annualized in returns—while capping upside potential and fully exposing them to downside risk. The move highlights Wall Street’s broader push to package crypto-native yield—through staking, lending, and structured products—without taking directional bets on prices. Firms like Fidelity, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley now offer staking services or accept crypto as collateral for loans, collecting steady fees regardless of market direction. In contrast, native crypto firms like Bitwise remain vulnerable to market downturns, as their revenue depends entirely on assets under management. This reflects a strategic pivot: large institutions no longer need to “believe” in crypto to profit from it. They monetize volatility and investor activity through fee-based structures, leaving price risk to retail investors. As regulatory shifts like the proposed 401(k) rules unfold, yield-generating crypto products may gain even broader adoption in traditional portfolios, further cementing Wall Street’s role as a neutral intermediary capturing reliable revenue streams from the ecosystem.

marsbit11m ago

Goldman Sachs Buys Volatility, Turns Bitcoin into a Yield Business

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AI Launches a Fierce Assault on Cancer, Virtually Tests 4,000 Anti-Cancer Drugs, Google Gemma Downloads Exceed 1 Billion

Google's open-source Gemma AI model family has reached a new milestone, surpassing 10 billion cumulative downloads in two and a half years since its February 2024 launch. This growth has fueled a vast ecosystem, with over 100,000 developer-derived model variants powering diverse applications, from NASA satellites to over 100 million phones. A standout application involves cancer research. In collaboration with Google Research and Yale, a team developed a 27-billion-parameter model called Cell2Sentence-Scale 27B (C2S-Scale). This model innovatively converts complex single-cell sequencing data into a "sentence" of gene names ranked by activity, allowing it to analyze cellular behavior. It was used to conduct a "dual-context virtual screen" of over 4,000 drugs, aiming to find one that specifically boosts antigen presentation—a key process for immune system recognition—only in the presence of low interferon signals (a "cold tumor" context), not in neutral conditions. The model identified silmitasertib (CX-4945), a CK2 kinase inhibitor, as a top candidate. Subsequent live-cell experiments validated this AI-generated hypothesis, showing that the drug combined with low-dose interferon increased antigen presentation by about 50%, whereas neither element alone had a significant effect. This represents a novel, AI-proposed mechanistic pathway for potential cancer therapy. Beyond biomedicine, the Gemma ecosystem is expanding into unique domains. Models have been deployed in space on high-performance GPUs and are being used in projects like DolphinGemma to decipher dolphin communication patterns. The 10-billion-download milestone underscores a key trend: the disruptive potential of AI lies not just in raw model capability but in its widespread, silent integration into diverse hardware and real-world applications, as evidenced by the thriving "Gemmaverse" community.

marsbit12m ago

AI Launches a Fierce Assault on Cancer, Virtually Tests 4,000 Anti-Cancer Drugs, Google Gemma Downloads Exceed 1 Billion

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Shocking: OpenAI Fully Open-Sources Codex Harness

OpenAI has open-sourced the core framework of Codex, called "Harness," under an Apache-2.0 license. This move allows developers to deeply integrate AI agents into their own applications and workflows, moving beyond the limitations of generic chat interfaces. The Harness is the underlying execution system that manages an AI agent's complete lifecycle: understanding tasks, maintaining memory, using tools, handling failures, and requesting human approvals. OpenAI demonstrated that optimizations to the Harness alone can dramatically boost a model's performance, tripling scores on a benchmark while using significantly fewer tokens. The release includes three key components: a CLI tool (`codex exec`) for automated tasks, official SDKs (TypeScript/Python) for programmatic control, and the `app-server` for embedding agents directly into products. This enables features like persistent state, real-time event streaming, and human-in-the-loop controls. Early adopters showcase its versatility beyond coding. Examples include a tax preparation system that cut processing time by one-third, Cisco's platform for building apps with natural language, and a demo logistics dashboard where agents analyze data and propose actions within the existing interface. This paradigm shift grants developers full control over the user interface, context, tools, and security boundaries. AI becomes an invisible assistant within specialized software, rather than a separate chatbot. By open-sourcing the engine behind its powerful agents, OpenAI aims to spark a new wave of native, deeply integrated AI applications.

marsbit17m ago

Shocking: OpenAI Fully Open-Sources Codex Harness

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Morgan Stanley Research Report Analysis: Gold Hits Target Price of $4450 Earlier Than Expected, Central Bank Purchases Provide Bottom Support

Morgan Stanley's Commodity Update reports that gold has reached its Q4 2026 target of $4450/oz earlier than expected. The price surge, driven by declining Fed hike probabilities, reversed ETF outflows from May-June, with July-August seeing 70 tonnes of net inflows. Central bank buying provides strong support, with China purchasing 60 tonnes this year and Poland increasing holdings toward a 700-tonne target. Gold is decoupling from its traditional inverse relationship with the 10-year real yield, now pricing in fiscal concerns linked to rising yields rather than the yields themselves. While the Fed's path remains a dominant driver for ETF flows, new structural supports include sustained central bank purchases (345 tonnes in H1 2026), historically low COMEX short positions, and yield curve steepening driven by fiscal worries. Morgan Stanley sees a path for gold to surpass $5000/oz by 2027, with the combined scenario of a steady Fed, continued central bank buying, and deepening fiscal concern pricing supporting a higher price floor. Short-term volatility from inflation data and limited short-covering potential is expected but should not alter the overarching bullish trend.

marsbit47m ago

Morgan Stanley Research Report Analysis: Gold Hits Target Price of $4450 Earlier Than Expected, Central Bank Purchases Provide Bottom Support