Криптовалютное сообщество считает, что в октябре биткоин достигнет отметки в 130 000 долларов

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-04-14Last updated on 2025-09-15

На криптовалютной платформе для прогнозирования Polymarket трейдеры поставили почти 600 000 долларов на контракты, предполагающие 10-процентную вероятность того, что биткоин (BTC) достигнет отметки в 130 000 долларов к 1 октября 2025 года.

В то же время коэффициенты указывают на 29-процентную вероятность того, что к концу года BTC достигнет отметки в 150 000 долларов. Это самая крупная ставка с объёмом ставок более 4,5 миллионов долларов.

Меньшая часть трейдеров считает, что цена вырастет ещё больше: 3 % из них поставили почти 3 миллиона долларов на цену в 250 000 долларов, а 1 % поставил почти 2,2 миллиона долларов на то, что к 1 января 2026 года цена может вырасти до 1 миллиона долларов.

Сможет ли биткоин достичь отметки в 130 тысяч долларов?

На момент написания статьи биткоин торговался по цене 115 700 долларов, прибавив 3,5 % на недельном графике. Институциональный спрос через спотовые биржевые фонды (ETF) продолжает поддерживать рынок: только на прошлой неделе был зафиксирован приток средств в размере 2,3 миллиарда долларов.

Макроэкономическая ситуация по-прежнему зависит от денежно-кредитной политики. Polymarket, например, оценивает вероятность снижения ставки на предстоящем заседании ФРС, запланированном на 16–17 сентября, в 98 %.

Учитывая несколько более низкие показатели инфляции в прошлом месяце, трейдеры также надеются на повышение ликвидности. Эта ситуация сравнима с ралли 2020–2021 годов, которое позволило BTC вырасти с 10 000 до 69 000 долларов.

Золото может стать основой для очередного роста курса Bicoin

Кроме того, биткоин по-прежнему тесно связан с золотом, цена которого 12 сентября превысила 3650 долларов за унцию, а цена серебра достигла самого высокого уровня за последние 14 лет.

Если цена на золото продолжит расти, текущая консолидация BTC может стать отражением предыдущих фаз, предшествовавших прорывам. Как показали прошлые циклы, биткоин имеет тенденцию к развороту и последующему прорыву, когда цена на драгоценный металл достигает пика.

С технической точки зрения, после выхода из нисходящего канала в сентябре, BTC восстановил свою 50-дневную простую скользящую среднюю (SMA) на уровне чуть выше 114 500 долларов. Сейчас сопротивление формируется на уровне 117 500–118 000 долларов, а потенциальная цель роста — 125 000 долларов.

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