No Bull Market for BTC Without STRC Re-pegging
Summary: The sustained de-pegging of MicroStrategy's (MSTR) Strategy Preferred Shares (STRC) poses a severe threat to Bitcoin (BTC) and could prevent a bull market. STRC, designed to trade near a $100 target, has plunged to around $75, effectively shutting down MicroStrategy's cheapest and most efficient funding channel. This channel was critical for its "raise funds, buy BTC" business model.
More critically, MicroStrategy now faces a massive cash outflow from these preferred shares. With approximately $10.49 billion of STRC outstanding at an 11.5% dividend yield, the annual cash obligation exceeds $1.2 billion. Combined with other preferred shares, the total annual payout nears $1.7 billion, depleting its current ~$1.4 billion cash reserve within a year.
To address this, MicroStrategy is increasingly relying on common stock (MSTR) offerings via its ATM program. However, recent sales show most raised capital is now used to bolster cash reserves rather than buy more Bitcoin. This dilutes the key metric of BTC per share for common stockholders, eroding the foundation of its premium valuation. If STRC cannot re-peg, this costly dilution may continue.
Worse, if cash pressure intensifies, selling Bitcoin becomes a real risk. As the largest corporate BTC holder (~847,363 BTC), any significant sales could crash the market. Thus, MicroStrategy is transforming from BTC's most reliable institutional buyer into a major potential seller, casting a significant shadow over Bitcoin's price prospects.
Odaily星球日报16m ago