以太坊十年：跳出技术内卷

深潮Published on 2025-07-31Last updated on 2025-08-01

以太坊 10 周年，谈几点对以太坊的期许。

撰文：Haotian

以太坊 10 周年，什么天才少年 Vitalik Buterin 打造 Crypto 宇宙帝国等歌功颂德的话就不说了，就谈几点期许吧：

1）以太坊最大的敌人不是外部竞争对手的高 TPS，恰恰是自己制造「技术内卷陷阱」。各种堆叠且复杂但实用性不及预期的技术叙事，正在消耗以太坊的战略重心。当务之急应调整 layer2 诸侯割据的分散局面，回归统一且高效的 layer1 高性能大战略。

2）UltraSound Money 的「大通缩」愿景终会到来。EIP-1559 的燃烧通缩机制和 POS 质押收益的通胀经济模型称得上精妙。燃烧机制 +POS 质押收益 +Layer2 Fee 反哺，这套组合拳一旦有效运转，以太坊势必会走向「大通缩时代」，相比比特币有限的价值捕获能力，以太坊多层收益模型叠加的「长期预期」会有压倒性优势；

3）以太坊版本微策略绝对是一次史诗级的大利好，用好这个由华尔街驱动的正向飞轮，比其他「共享安全」之类的技术叙事包装有效多了。因此以太坊需要一个像 Michael Saylor 那样的「布道者」，根本无需太多概念技术化的华丽包装，仅「全球可编程数字资产结算层」一个定位，就足够华尔街消化并炒作很多年；

4）AI 大战略会是以太坊的「救赎」机会。让智能合约原生调用 AI 能力，让 AI Agent 应用在以太坊上实现再复兴，让去中心化共识成为 AI+Crypto 的基础设施，唯有「AI 大战略」能够把以太坊从单纯 DeFi 套娃的金融困境中拯救出来，重新定义以太坊叙事和应用落地的边界；

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