谁在挡着比特币冲破10万?

投研日志Published on 2025-05-08Last updated on 2025-05-08

Abstract

总之,期货市场的反身性依旧在主导价格行为,看多到10w以上的人越多,10w越难以到达,看空的人越多,价格也越难以回调,这是一个情绪面的囚徒困境,我们当下能够量化的部分并不多...

作者:@CryptoPainter_X

先说几个我周末观察到的迹象,感觉应该会是某种信号:

1. BTC的价格从97500一路阴跌至95000的过程中,价格上方的空头流动性没有出现明显的堆积,代表价格的下跌并不是期货空头所为,而是现货市场有持续的供应导致,现货溢价指数在这个过程中出现了持续下降;

2. 多头流动性在近处没有明显增加...

但别忘了引文里提及的那个在上周价格突破95500时出现的大量多头流动性,比较诡异的是,这批多头流动性的清算位置出现在了76000...

而这批多头流动性出现之后不到24h,BTC的价格就在98000以下出现了上涨停滞的状态,尤其是明明可以继续继续向上清算,但莫名其妙的停止了...

我的猜测是,这批新增的多头流动性本身是为了吃98000以上清算行情的肉,但无奈资金量实在不小,所以导致原本推动价格上涨的资金不是很愿意抬轿...

关键这批资金的杠杆率较低,只有5x,短期还完全清算不了它...

所以价格才出现了不上不下的状态,说白了就是有个大胖子突然跳上了车,司机有点不高兴,但又不好意思赶人下车,于是决定找点颠簸路面,震一震!

这才有了当下的震荡行情;

3. 短线多头资金在94500~95000新开的多头仓位已经被清算掉了,而再往下就是一个明显的流动性缺口,因此当下如果价格想要持续回调至93000,是需要一定反弹震荡并让多头填补上这个流动性缺口的。

所以周一白天关注的重点就是这个缺口是否可以得到填补,如果多头成功上钩,那么周一至周二期间,价格对93000的测试就非常轻松了!

总结:如引文猜测,价格触及98000附近时没有继续进行清算的原因很可能就是空头流动性缺乏,大量空头在价格上来的路上就跑了,与此同时,还有低倍多头大手笔做多,导致价格向上的动力明显减缓;

如果接下来空头还是不敢开仓,而多头自信满满尝试不断抄底,那么这波持续3周的反弹很可能就彻底结束了,接下来的一周或两周,我们可能面临83000的回调或极限76000的回调(没错,针对那批5倍的多单!);

总之,期货市场的反身性依旧在主导价格行为,看多到10w以上的人越多,10w越难以到达,看空的人越多,价格也越难以回调,这是一个情绪面的囚徒困境,我们当下能够量化的部分并不多...

因此我也只能先看短期回调后震荡,而不是看一波反转的空头趋势...毕竟为时过早!

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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