Вот сколько биткоинов нужно, чтобы обеспечить себе пенсию

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-04-05Last updated on 2025-05-05

В ожидании продолжения роста крипторынка участники криптосообщества задались вопросом о том, могут ли цифровые активы обеспечить им безбедную жизнь на пенсии. Многие считают, что своевременные инвестиции в биткоин сделают их богатыми стариками

Рассказываем, сколько биткоинов нужно, чтобы не беспокоиться о пенсии на старости лет и жить безбедно.

Почему биткоин

Биткоин способен не только сохранять стоимость, но и обгонять инфляцию, особенно в странах с нестабильной валютой. Эмиссия BTC ограничена. Всего будет добыт 21 млн монет, и примерно каждые 4 года благодаря халвингам скорость притока новых биткоинов на рынок снижается в два раза. Наблюдения показывают, что в условиях роста интереса к крипте такая схема неизбежно толкает курс криптовалюты к новым максимумам.

Считаем биткоины под пенсию

Аналитик Сминтон Виз решил рассчитать точные цифры. Он выпустил новую версию своего популярного гида по планированию пенсии через криптоинвестиции, Bitcoin Retirement Guide. Схема предполагает консервативный подход к финансовому планированию с опорой на биткоин. При этом в своей работе аналитик под термином «пенсия» подразумевает не пенсию по старости, а пенсию в виде осознанного отказа от работы в любом возрасте.

Как работает Bitcoin Retirement Guide

Ключевым обновлением стало использование регрессионной модели 5-го квантиля вместо прежнего 50-го (медианного) уровня. Такой подход, по словам автора, позволяет учитывать редкие, но возможные сильные просадки курса.

Модель рассчитана так, чтобы лишь в 5% случаев годовой уровень изъятия (то есть расходы на жизнь) оказался под угрозой сокращения из-за волатильности.

«Это означает, что с вероятностью 95% вам не придется менять план расходов — или, в среднем, лишь один раз за 20 лет», — поясняет Виз.

Такой подход делает цели по накоплению биткоина более достижимыми и реалистичными, сохраняя при этом финансовую устойчивость стратегии.

Методология руководства основывается на трех ключевых предположениях:

  • среднегодовая инфляция составит 7% (исходя из долгосрочных исторических трендов);
  • налоговая нагрузка не учитывается — каждый пользователь должен самостоятельно адаптировать план под свое налоговое резидентство;
  • планирование ведется до 100 лет жизни, что обеспечивает достаточный запас прочности.

Сколько биткоинов нужно ждя безбедной пенсии

Виз обратил внимание на то, что уровень расходов пенсионеров может сильно различаться. Поэтому, чтобы учесть все варианты потребностей, он провел серию расчетов, исходя из трат за год. Ниже представлены таблицы, которые дают точный ответ на вопрос о том, сколько биткоинов нужно купить, чтобы быть обеспеченным пенсионером, в зависимости от годовых расходов и возраста выхода на пенсию. Вот как их читать:

  • Сверху указаны предполагаемые расходы за год. Например, первая таблица составлена под траты $50 000 в год.
  • График показывает расчет биткоинов, которые потребуются человеку, исходя из его возраста и предполагаемого срока выхода на пенсию.
  • В таблице указано точное количество биткоинов, которое потребуется купить для безбедной пенсии, с учетом возраста.

$50 000 в год

$100 000 в год

$150 000 в год

$200 000 в год

$250 000 в год

$300 000 в год

$350 000 в год

$400 000 в год

$450 000 в год

$500 000 в год

$1 млн в год

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