QCP Capital: рынок не верит угрозам Трампа, но готовится к росту волатильности

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2021-02-10Last updated on 2025-02-10

Трейдинговая компания QCP Capital выпустила отчет, где анализирует влияние последних заявлений Дональда Трампа (Donald Trump) на криптовалютный рынок и сложившуюся ситуацию с опционами на биткоин.

Заявление бывшего президента США о намерении ввести 25-процентный тариф на сталь и алюминий вызвало кратковременную нестабильность на рынках перед выступлением главы ФРС (11 февраля 18:00 MSK) и публикацией данных по индексу потребительских цен (12 февраля 16:30 MSK).

Геополитические факторы

Учитывая, что Мексика и Канада входят в тройку крупнейших поставщиков США, объявленные тарифы ставят под сомнение недавнюю отсрочку и могут спровоцировать новый виток торговой напряженности. Ситуацию усугубляют комментарии Трампа о возможных санкциях против Японии — ключевого союзника США. Это заявление последовало за решением Белого дома заблокировать сделку по приобретению U.S. Steel крупнейшей японской сталелитейной компанией Nippon Steel.

Влияние на рынки

Цены на сырьевые товары остались практически без изменений, азиатские фондовые индексы снизились, а биткоин после короткого падения до $95 000 восстановил позиции. Аналитики QCP Capital отмечают, что такая динамика указывает на реакцию, обусловленную настроениями участников рынка, а не фундаментальными изменениями склонности к риску.

4-часовой график BTC/USDT. Источник: скринер криптовалют Cryptovizor

Ситуация с опционами

В настоящее время волатильность биткоина смещена в сторону пут-опционов до апреля, что свидетельствует об отсутствии факторов для роста. Пут-опционы дают право, но не обязательство продать актив по определенной цене в будущем, и рост интереса к ним обычно указывает на защитную позицию трейдеров.

Особенности текущего момента

QCP Capital отмечает формирование своеобразной обратной связи: рынок все чаще ставит под сомнение заявления Трампа, что может подтолкнуть президента к еще более решительным действиям и увеличить волатильность на рынках.

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