Рассказываем, почему биткоин падает и как это связано с ФРС

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2021-04-19Last updated on 2024-12-19

Падение биткоина на фоне очередного заседания ФРС стало поводом для дискуссии в криптосообществе о перспективах дальнейшего поведения рынка

Рассказываем, почему биткоин падает, какие сигналы дал американский регулятор и чего участники криптоиндустрии ждут от BTC.

Что происходит с биткоином

Вечером 18 декабря биткоин начал снижаться. Криптовалюте не удалось удержать уровень $100 000. В моменте биткоин снижался до $98 800. После монета начала восстанавливаться. По состоянию на 07:49 (МСК), биткоин торгуется по $100 911.

Часовой график биткоина. Источник: TradingView

На фоне падения биткоина все монеты из топ-10 капитализации также продемонстрировали отрицательную динамику.

Почему биткоин падает

Биткоин начал падать на фоне публикации негативных комментариев главы ФРС Джерома Пауэлла о формировании в США BTC-резерва. По его словам, в текущих условиях регулятор не может организовать хранение криптовалюты и не стремится к этому, так как для реализации проекта потребуется изменение действующего законодательства.

Напомним, инициативу формирования в США биткоин-резерва предложил победивший на выборах президента 2024 Дональд Трамп. Проект, по его мнению, может стать решением проблемы госдолга Америки. Инициатива подразумевает постепенную скупку биткоинов до тех пор, пока в казне США не будет 5% от общей эмиссии криптовалюты. Утверждение планов формирования BTC-резерва в Америке может подтолкнуть рынок к росту, так как проект способен поддержать позитивную динамику монеты за счет активных покупок. Намеки ФРС на то, что инициативу вряд ли реализуют — напротив медвежий сигнал.

Такими комментариями Пауэлл поделился на фоне очередного заседания регулятора, в ходе которого было принято решение о снижении ключевой процентной ставки. ФРС снизила ставку в третий раз подряд. На этот раз ее опустили на 25 базисных пунктов — до уровня 4,25–4,5% годовых. По состоянию на момент написания обзора, свыше 91% участников рынка считают, что на этом ФРС остановится. По мнению большинства, в рамках следующего заседания регулятора, которое состоится в конце января 2025 года, ставка останется на прежнем уровне. Поводом для такого поведения рынка стали намеки Пауэлла на то, что в следующем году может быть меньше снижений, чем ранее предполагалось.

Для крипторынка снижение ключевой процентной ставки ФРС — позитивная новость, так как изменения повышают привлекательность высокорискованных активов, таких как крипта. При этом намеки Пауэлла на то, что движение регулятора по пути снижения ставки будет не таким резким, как ранее предполагалось, негативно повлияли на настроение инвесторов.

Прогнозы

Многие участники криптосообщества считают, что действия ФРС лишь временно обрушили курс криптовалюты. Инвесторы надеются на возобновление роста BTC. Например, криптоблогер Nebraskangooner уверен в том, что это лишь временная просадка перед движением криптовалюты к новым максимумам. Криптоинвестор Rager в свою очередь обратил внимание на то, что с точки зрения технического анализа, коррекция BTC выглядит здоровой, а значит есть шансы на возобновление роста.

К коллегам присоединился известный криптотрейдер Джейкоб Кэнфилд. По его наблюдениям, многие инвесторы надеются купить криптовалюту на более низких уровнях, однако рынок вряд ли позволит этому случиться.

Криптотрейдер @AlemzadehC также считает, что у инвесторов BTC нет поводов для паники. Он обратил внимание на то, что высокую волатильность криптовалюты не стоит принимать за ее слабость.

К оптимистам присоединился аналитик Марк Каллен. Он также считает, что вскоре криптовалюта восстановится и продолжит движение к новым вершинам. Он не исключает прорыв уровня $110 000 до конца года..

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