Новая стратегия QCP Capital нацелена на прорыв биткоина выше $70 000

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2021-05-28Last updated on 2024-10-28

Трейдинговая компания QCP Capital опубликовала новый аналитический отчет, в котором особое внимание уделяется влиянию политических факторов на рынок криптовалют. По данным компании, интервью Дональда Трампа (Donald Trump) в подкасте Джо Рогана (Joe Rogan) набрало более 32 миллионов просмотров, что привело к росту его рейтинга на платформе Polymarket до 66%.

Ослабление корреляции

Несмотря на то что биткоин часто называют «трамп-трейдом», его корреляция с рейтингами бывшего президента начала ослабевать на фоне попыток преодолеть отметку в $70 000 и июльские максимумы. В октябре основная криптовалюта выросла всего на 8%, что значительно ниже среднего показателя в 21%. Если цена останется на текущих уровнях, это будет четвертый худший октябрь для биткоина за последнее десятилетие.

Месячная доходность биткоина. Источник: CoinGlass

Торговые объемы и стратегии

Общий объем открытых позиций по бессрочным фьючерсам на биткоин достиг $27 млрд, приближаясь к максимумам этого года. Аналитики QCP Capital отмечают, что прорыв выше $70 000 может спровоцировать достижение новых исторических максимумов, особенно с учетом увеличения числа длинных позиций с использованием заемных средств.

Предложенная стратегия

QCP Capital предлагает торговую стратегию, ориентированную на потенциальный прорыв цены во время выборов. Речь идет о цифровом опционе колл на биткоин со следующими параметрами:

  • Целевая цена: $75 000
  • Дата экспирации: 8 ноября
  • Потенциальная доходность: 4х
  • Текущая цена базового актива: $68 300

Цифровой опцион — это производный финансовый инструмент, который выплачивает фиксированную сумму, если цена базового актива достигает определенного уровня к моменту истечения контракта. В данном случае трейдеры получат четырехкратную прибыль, если биткоин превысит отметку в $75 000 к 8 ноября.

Ретроспективный анализ

В предыдущем отчете QCP Capital отмечала высокую волатильность на рынке и рост доминирования биткоина до 59,75%. Чистый приток средств в биткоин-ETF за неделю составил $997,7 млн, что стало третьей подряд неделей положительной динамики и указывает на устойчивый институциональный спрос.

Рынок внимательно следит за предстоящей публикацией данных по базовому индексу потребительских цен (Core PCE) и отчету по занятости в несельскохозяйственном секторе (NFP), которые могут повлиять на динамику криптовалютного рынка в краткосрочной перспективе.

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