Meme修炼手册：重生之我要做钻石手（一）| 南枳出品

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-10-14Last updated on 2024-10-14

Abstract

务必设置最小跟单金额，相信聪明钱的追高，不要主动止盈。

原创 | Odaily星球日报（@OdailyChina）

作者｜南枳（@Assassin_Malvo）

Meme修炼手册：重生之我要做钻石手（一）| 南枳出品

此前在《透视一千个 Solana“聪明钱包”：谁在狂赚？从中能学到什么？》、《两千个聪明地址数据归纳以太坊 Meme 大赢家特征：钻石手还是 PvP | 南枳出品》文中，作者基于胜率、盈亏比、回撤情况等多维数据对热门代币的高盈利地址进行了统计和复盘。

近日，基于以上统计方法，作者进一步迭代了这些聪明地址的“分数评估方式”，旨在寻找这些聪明地址中的”钻石手玩家“并进行跟单，探究跟单钻石手是否能作为一种稳定盈利的方式。此外作者简单设计了一套“割跟单系数”（收割跟单钱包），以保护增强账号的盈利和防回撤能力。Odaily 将于本文对“钻石手分数评估方式”和“跟单设置”进行分享与探讨。

风险提示：该系统自 10 月 8 日启动，至今仅运行了 6 天，当前虽取得了一定成果，但客观角度来看数据量、对照试验均不充分，严谨性有限，仅供读者参考。此外为保证后续测试客观性，本文将不会披露任何地址。

基本情况说明

  • 本金：分别于 10 月 8 日和 10 月 12 日存入 7 SOL 和 8 SOL，追加资金的原因为被跟单地址（聪明地址）持币周期过长，SOL 全部转化为代币，无法继续跟单故进行追加。

  • 利润：截至 10 月 14 日 13: 30 （UTC+ 8），账户总资金为 3570 美元，约为 23.64 SOL，利润率 57.6% 。

  • 跟单设置：多数情况下为每笔交易固定跟单 0.3 SOL；若聪明地址购入小于 0.1 SOL 则不跟单（后续说明理由）；买、卖均跟随；不跟单市值大于 3000 万美元以上的代币；买卖优先费均为 0.0005 SOL。

Meme修炼手册：重生之我要做钻石手（一）| 南枳出品

账号数据详情，其中总盈利不正确，详见下文

钻石手评价系统

首个版本设计了 13 个评价维度，当前已暴露的核心问题包括：①评价系统受资金量影响过大，同样的盈亏比和胜率，高资金量的地址显著占优、②不能屏蔽恶意做局的地址、③缺失持币周期的统计。详细计算方法如下：

  • 30 天胜率，满分 1 分：分数等于 30 天胜率；

  • 7 天盈利，满分 1 分： 7 天盈利大于 5 万美元满分，盈利 0 至 5 万美元线性得分，负利润 0 分；

  • 30 天盈利，满分 1 分： 30 天盈利大于 10 万美元满分，盈利 0 至 10 万美元线性得分，负利润 0 分；

  • 每次买入利润均值，满分 1 分： 30 天盈利÷ 30 天购买次数，小于 300 得 0 分，大于 2000 得 1 分，中间线性得分；

  • 每次卖出利润均值，满分 1 分： 30 天盈利÷ 30 天卖出次数，小于 300 得 0 分，大于 2000 得 1 分，中间线性得分；

（注：以上四个指标存在本节提到的第一个问题：过度利好大资金量地址。）

  • 买卖风格，满分 1 分：每次买入利润均值÷每次卖出利润均值，大于 1.5 时计算分数，否则 0 分。分数等于“每次卖出利润均值分数”× 50% 。（注：希望找到少量买入，高点分批出货的地址。）

  • 总盈利，满分 1 分：小于 1 万美元得 0 分，大于 10 万美元得 1 分，中间线性得分；（注：总盈利=盈利最多的 30 个代币盈利+亏损最多的 30 个代币亏损之和。）

  • 盈利 TOP 1 占比，满分 0.166 分：计算方法为盈利最多的代币÷总盈利，大于 0% ，小于 75% 计算分数，否则 0 分。分数等于“总盈利分数÷ 6 ”；

  • 盈利 TOP 5 占比，满分 0.166 分：计算方法为盈利 TOP 5 的代币÷总盈利，大于 0% ，小于 100% 计算分数，否则 0 分。分数等于“总盈利分数÷ 6 ”；

  • 盈利 TOP 10 占比，满分 0.166 分：计算方法为盈利 TOP 10 的代币÷总盈利，大于 0% ，小于 150% 计算分数，否则 0 分。分数等于“总盈利分数÷ 6 ”；

  • 此外还有亏损 TOP 1、TOP 5、TOP 10 等三个指标，方法与以上三个指标类似，不再赘述。

割跟单系数

部分聪明钱地址，因明确其地址有大量跟单钱包，因此会购入小市值代币推高价格，待跟单买入后抛售获利，为避免这种情况，设计有“割跟单系数“，割跟单系数大于 0 的地址一律不考虑进行跟单。

作者获取了每个聪明地址最近交易过的 50 个代币，其中：

  • 该代币来自 pump

  • 当前市值小于 100 k

  • 60 秒内秒买秒卖且两次数量一致（± 5% ）

对于每个交易过的代币，同时符合以上三个条件记为割跟单分数+ 1 ，最终除以统计总数得到割跟单系数，自动跟单系统中大于 0 的地址一律不考虑，手动操作时则在地址后标注割跟单系数大小。

首版系统反思

基于 6 天的测试，作者对盈利、亏损进行了复盘，得到部分经验如下：

  • 务必设置最小跟单金额：作者设置了“若聪明地址购入小于 0.1 SOL 则不跟单”，原因在于存在“恶意投毒”的情况。某些恶意地址能够通过未知手段，将价值可忽略不计的代币转移到聪明地址中，并被跟单 bot 识别为聪明地址所购买，从而触发跟单，而后恶意地址抛售获利。作者直至昨日才发现这一问题，已被投毒十余个代币。

  • 相信聪明钱的追高：SOL 近期的代币上限多为 3 千万美元市值，例如 MANYU、Pochita、Miharu 等均在触及该上限后暴跌，本次测试所跟踪的都聪明地址都没有购买这些代币，唯一追高的代币为 GOAT，在一千余万美元市值追高并在八千万美元市值卖出（当前为 1.1 亿美元）。因此建议相信这些顶级地址的判断能力。

  • 不要主动止盈：在跟单地址选择上，本身系统就有“风格偏好”，倾向于高亏损同时高盈利的地址，若人工介入主动止盈，只会破坏这一策略的完整运行，导致错失大额利润。（跟单第二天原本账户就可以翻倍，但某个代币上涨两三倍后就手动卖出的教训）

  • 盈亏数据披露： 6 天测试后，跟单系统共购买了 81 个代币，仅 29 个代币盈利为正，胜率 35.8% 。盈利 TOP 1  共盈利 1247 美元，为总投入资金的 55%  ；TOP 5 共盈利 2408 美元，为总资金的 106% 。亏损 TOP 1 共亏损 214 美元，占比 9.4% ，TOP 5 共亏损 789 美元，占比 34.3% 。表现出了与跟单地址趋同的状态。

Meme修炼手册：重生之我要做钻石手（一）| 南枳出品

下一步计划

综上， 6 天测试中，该系统盈利较为稳定，利润来自多个代币而非偶发幸运情况，并且持币周期较长，短则数小时，长则数天，无需 PvP 战斗。

下一版本的迭代，计划寻找出能够稳定盈利的小资金地址、增加恶意操作和地址的识别能力。此外，当前识别的聪明地址操作时间往往在北京时间的凌晨，国内白天的“金狗”基本没有参加，亟需扩大聪明地址库存。

如果一个月内这个跟单系统没有亏完，将进行本篇第二期更新，敬请期待。

Related Reads

Six Complaints from an Ethereum Developer

A disgruntled early Ethereum developer and token holder presents six core criticisms of the project's trajectory, contrasting it with Solana's rise. 1. **Premature Complacency**: The Ethereum Foundation shifted from a "building" to an "infrastructure" mindset too soon, adopting a passive, "retired chairman" posture before securing market dominance, reflected in ETH's ~65% decline against BTC post-Merge. 2. **Misguided Messaging**: The Merge was marketed primarily on ESG (99.95% energy reduction) rather than user benefits like speed or yield, appealing to internal ideals instead of market demands. 3. **Delayed Execution**: Proof-of-Stake, on the roadmap since 2015, took seven years to launch, ceding critical narrative and development windows. Competitors like Solana built entire ecosystems in that time. 4. **Poor Native Staking UX**: Years after the Merge, there is still no first-party, user-friendly staking application, forcing reliance on centralized services like Lido and undermining ETH's "sound money" narrative. 5. **Managed Decline**: The rollup-centric roadmap deliberately weakens the base layer's fee capture, outsourcing value and profitability to L2s like Arbitrum and Base, which issue their own tokens and fragment capital. 6. **Ideology Over Product**: Ethereum culture prioritizes philosophical purity ("credible neutrality," "public goods") over competitive product delivery that meets user demands (e.g., financialization), while Solana's ecosystem focuses on coordinated execution. The diagnosis is accumulated execution debt, not a coordination failure. Ethereum possessed a structural advantage in 2021 but spent years in governance debates, while Solana efficiently executed. The current market cap reflects these specific strategic failures, not abstract theory.

marsbit8m ago

Six Complaints from an Ethereum Developer

marsbit8m ago

Six Complaints from an Ethereum Developer

Six Grievances from an Ethereum Developer The author, an early investor and developer still building on Ethereum, expresses deep frustration with its trajectory and declining ETH/BTC price since the merge. The core argument is that Ethereum's current market position stems from concrete failures in execution and strategy, not abstract coordination problems. The first grievance targets a shift in the Ethereum Foundation's mentality from builders to "infrastructure," adopting a premature posture of a retired victor. Second, marketing the Merge around ESG (99.95% energy reduction) is seen as talking to its own conscience rather than the market, which prioritizes user experience and yield. Third, the seven-year delay in delivering Proof-of-Stake (PoS) ceded critical narrative and development time to competitors like Solana. Fourth, three years post-merge, there is still no user-friendly first-party staking application, forcing reliance on centralized services like Lido and undermining ETH's monetary narrative. Fifth, the rollup-centric roadmap has strategically surrendered base-layer fee capture to L2s, fragmenting value within the ecosystem while Solana demonstrates an integrated L1's value accrual. Finally, the author criticizes an institutional culture that prioritizes philosophical ideals (credible neutrality, pluralism) over competitive product delivery focused on what users actually want. The diagnosis is "accumulated execution debt." Ethereum possessed a structural advantage in 2021 but spent years in governance debates, while Solana's ecosystem coordinated efficiently to deliver and capture the next wave of value. The conclusion is that Ethereum's market cap reflects its abandonment of the fight for asset appreciation.

链捕手18m ago

Six Complaints from an Ethereum Developer

链捕手18m ago

Token Budget Wars: Enterprise AI Enters the 'Accounting Era'

Token Budget Wars: Enterprise AI Enters the "Accounting Era" Enterprise AI is shifting from the question of "whether to adopt" to "how to account for it." As AI inference costs evolve from experimental budgets into ongoing operational expenses, CEOs and CFOs are demanding proof of value: what tangible results does each dollar spent on tokens deliver? The core of "Token Budget Wars" is not simply about reducing AI bills, but about intelligently allocating compute resources. It involves determining which business processes warrant more computational power, which tasks can use cheaper models, which can be outsourced or handled manually, and which are merely inefficient consumption. A key insight is that AI usage (token consumption) does not equal value. While SaaS usage indicated software adoption, AI token usage only indicates the "meter is running." The same workflow can cost vastly different amounts due to factors like prompt quality, context, model choice, and retries. The critical metric for scaling is "marginal token utility"—the business value created per additional dollar of inference cost. However, this is difficult to measure due to challenges like the long tail of retries, context inflation (where costs can scale quadratically with context length), and inefficient model routing (defaulting to the most powerful model for all tasks). The competition for token allocation is intensifying because, in the AI era, influence is tied to how much intelligence one can command, not just team size. AI spending is essentially competing with labor costs, whether for replacing external BPOs, internal staff, or generating new revenue. BPO contracts provide a clearer benchmark as they are priced per completed unit. The missing layer is attribution from tokens to business outcomes. Companies need a system that connects inference spending to completed work and results, capturing the agent's decision trajectory—what it saw, retrieved, tried, and why it succeeded or failed. This recorded rationale becomes a valuable asset. Ultimately, those who master token-to-outcome attribution will control the allocation of AI resources within enterprises, deciding which workflows get more compute, which are capped, or which revert to humans. The first phase of enterprise AI proved models could do the work. The next phase will determine how much of that work is worth paying for.

marsbit44m ago

Token Budget Wars: Enterprise AI Enters the 'Accounting Era'

marsbit44m ago

Anthropic's Revenue Surpasses OpenAI by at Least 35%, IPO Race Dynamics Shift

Anthropic has overtaken OpenAI in revenue by at least 35%, according to a recent report. Anthropic's annualized revenue is now approximately $45 billion, compared to OpenAI's roughly $33 billion. This represents a dramatic five-fold revenue increase for Anthropic over the first five months of the year, while OpenAI saw growth of just over 50%. The profitability gap is even more significant. Anthropic is expected to post an operating profit in Q2 with around a 5% margin. In stark contrast, OpenAI reported a massive operating loss of over 100% of its revenue in Q1, equating to a loss of at least $7 billion for the quarter. OpenAI also faces substantial costs, including paying 20% of its revenue to Microsoft and high AI server rental fees. This financial reversal impacts their potential IPO timelines. Previously, OpenAI might have been favored to go public first, but now its leadership may view an accelerated IPO as a "more financially prudent choice" to avoid direct, unfavorable public market comparisons. If Anthropic, with its superior growth and profitability metrics, were to file for an IPO first, it would gain a significant valuation advantage. At its current growth rate, Anthropic's revenue could soon surpass major tech firms like Netflix and Salesforce within a year.

marsbit1h ago

Anthropic's Revenue Surpasses OpenAI by at Least 35%, IPO Race Dynamics Shift

marsbit1h ago

US Debt Exceeds $39 Trillion, Surpassing GDP for First Time: The 'Gray Rhino' Every Investor Must Face by 2026

The U.S. national debt has exceeded $39 trillion, with the debt-to-GDP ratio surpassing 100% in 2026 for the first time since WWII. The annual interest payment is projected to reach $1.039 trillion. Driven by structural factors like tax cuts, rising entitlement spending (Social Security, Medicare), and compounding interest, the deficit persists. The Congressional Budget Office warns the current fiscal path is unsustainable, projecting debt could reach 175% of GDP by 2056. While the U.S. is unlikely to default as it issues its own currency, the consequences include persistent inflation pressure, higher long-term interest rates (e.g., 30-year Treasury yields at 5.2%), and potential crowding out of private investment. A fiscal crisis could manifest as a sudden, sharp spike in borrowing costs if market confidence erodes. Major credit rating agencies have downgraded U.S. debt, reflecting these concerns. For investors, this signals the end of the era of permanently low interest rates. Equity investors should favor companies with strong current earnings over high-growth stocks reliant on low discount rates. Bond investors face headwinds for long-term Treasuries due to increased supply, making shorter-duration bonds and investment-grade corporates relatively attractive. Gold and real assets can provide a hedge against currency debasement risks. Three broad scenarios are possible: gradual stabilization through fiscal reform (unlikely given political gridlock), a slow-burn of high debt and interest rates dragging on growth (the most probable baseline), or a sudden loss of market confidence triggering a crisis. Key indicators to watch include CBO report updates, Treasury auction demand, and the 30-year Treasury yield. The core takeaway for investors is the need to adjust portfolios for a world of sustained higher government borrowing costs and interest rates.

marsbit1h ago

US Debt Exceeds $39 Trillion, Surpassing GDP for First Time: The 'Gray Rhino' Every Investor Must Face by 2026

marsbit1h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of MEME (MEME) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions