两千个聪明地址数据归纳以太坊 Meme 大赢家特征:“钻石手”还是 PvP

链捕手Published on 2024-09-23Last updated on 2024-09-23

作者:南枳,Odaily 星球日报

 

近期,以太坊 Meme 热潮重新回归,链上 Gas 也有所复苏。另一方面,以太坊上的 Meme 市场氛围和玩家相较其他链,给大众的印象更偏向于「钻石手」,真正的赢家是「钻石手」还是 PvP 高手?他们的数据特征如何?

Odaily 星球日报在本文梳理了二十个 Meme 代币的 TOP 100 盈利地址,包括数百万市值的 BURGER、千万美元的 DOGE、上亿市值的 Nerio 和 MOG 等多种代币,对其多维度特征进行解析。

数据来源与处理说明

本文各钱包的数据来自 GMGN,其中未修改的基础数据包括 7 天盈利、 30 天盈利、 30 天胜率、钱包余额。自定义数据包括:

  • 总盈利:由于大量地址在 GMGN 上的总盈利数据存在偏差,本文采用「盈利最多的十个代币」减去「亏损最多的十个代币」的盈利值替代总盈利,不足十个时有几个计算几个。
  • TOP 盈利:剔除了 GMGN 上标记为「流动性不足」但大额获利的代币,此类多为市值造假的诈骗代币。然后分别统计盈利前 1、 3、 5 的代币的盈利值,亏损同理。
  • 每次购买 / 出售平均盈利: 30 天总盈利÷ 30 天内购买 / 出售次数。

此外本文手动移除了重复地址、通过转账获得大量代币的地址(此类地址盈利计算或存在问题)、MEV Bot 地址,最后共有 1581 个地址。

钱包数据分析

有多少钻石手?

  • 统计的 1581 个地址总盈利为 2.08 亿美元,平均盈利 13.19 万美元;
  • 其中盈利 TOP 1 的代币为这些地址带来了 1.9 亿美元的利润,平均盈利 12.07 万美元;
  • 亏损 TOP 1 的代币合计损失 3090 万美元,平均损失 1.95 万美元。

可见这些「聪明钱」在盈亏比方面表现良好,在 600% 的盈亏比下仅需 14% 的胜率即可实现收益持平。

进一步地,Odaily 按照总盈利金额的不同对各个地址进行切分,并加入了 TOP 3 和 TOP 5 盈亏分析,结果如下图所示:

  • 总盈利越多的地址,盈亏比或者说「钻石手程度」越高;
  • TOP 1 的盈亏比相较 TOP 3、 5 更高,意味着这些「聪明钱」地址往往通过单个代币实现大额盈利。

钻石手们的出手频率?

进一步地,我们剔除了钱包内 ETH 余额小于 0.1 ETH 或 30 天内未进行过交易的地址,得到所有地址在 30 天内平均交易了 337 次,分总盈利区间详情如下表所示:

  • 出乎意料地,盈利最多的地址出手频率远高于其他区间,或许这些地址更加频繁地尝试寻找机会;
  • 而盈利最多的地址每次交易的盈利也远超其他地址,经查验主要是有少数几个地址在 Nerio 上线币安前购买了几笔价值上万美元的代币,导致单地址平均盈利特别高;
  • 盈利 10 万美元以上的地址的「每次出售平均盈利÷每次购买平均盈利」显著小于其他区间,说明这些地址倾向于低频购买,然后分批出货。

胜率与盈利解读

同样地,分区间对胜率、 7 天盈利、 30 天盈利的均值进行分析,结果如下表所示:

  • 可见,与 Solana 不同,盈利地址的各区间的胜率都不算特别高,结合上两个小节,维持住一定胜率的基础上,应当把重点放在扩大盈亏比上。

(Solana 聪明钱分析详见《透视一千个 Solana「聪明钱包」:谁在狂赚?从中能学到什么?》)

  • 盈利 20 万美元以上的地址, 7 天盈利和 30 天盈利非常接近,主要原因仍是部分地址近几日在 Nerio 上大幅盈利所导致的。意味着盈利在 5 万 -20 万美元区间的地址,单论持续盈利能力,反而略胜一筹,值得偏好该策略的读者进行关注。
  • 负盈利地址存在着胜率低、且亏损可持续的情况,也可作为「反指」进行参考。

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