Биткоин на старте: аналитики Capriole прогнозируют импульсный рост до $64 000

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2024-02-18Last updated on 2024-09-18

Биткоин может вскоре вернуться к пиковым показателям прошлого бычьего рынка благодаря сочетанию макроэкономических факторов и стандартных циклических закономерностей. Такой прогноз дает инвестиционная компания Capriole Investments в своем последнем ежемесячном отчете.

Федеральный резерв меняет курс

Ключевым фактором потенциального роста биткоина может стать смягчение денежно-кредитной политики Федеральной резервной системы США. Ожидается, что на сегодняшнем заседании (21:00 MSK) ФРС снизит процентные ставки, что будет означать смену курса монетарной политики.

«Это знаменует начало нового голубиного режима политики ФРС, первого значительного изменения с конца 2021 года, когда ФРС объявила о своем ястребином режиме, в результате чего ставки выросли с 0 до 5,5% всего за 18 месяцев», — отмечается в отчете Capriole Investments.

Технический анализ

Чарльз Эдвардс (Charles Edwards), основатель Capriole Investments, отмечает, что недельная поддержка биткоина на уровне $58 000 показывает хорошую реакцию. По его мнению, при отсутствии «медвежьих сюрпризов» со стороны ФРС, цена биткоина может быстро достичь отметки в $64 000.

«Закрытие недели выше $64 000 завершит 7-месячную последовательность более низких максимумов и, вероятно, приведет к быстрому возвращению к верхней границе диапазона ($70 000) и, возможно, даже выше», — прогнозирует Эдвардс.

1-недельный график BTC/USD. Источник: Bitstamp/TradingView

Сезонность и макроэкономические факторы

Эдвардс также обращает внимание на сезонные факторы, отмечая, что впереди два лучших квартала для биткоина:

  • Традиционно значительная доходность в четвертом квартале
  • Начало наиболее благоприятного 12-18 месячного окна для инвестиций в биткоин, которое повторяется каждые 4 года
  • Старт многолетнего голубиного режима ФРС, который приведет к увеличению ликвидности в рисковых активах
Квартальная доходность биткоина. Источник: Capriole Investments

Переоценка сетевых индикаторов

Интересно, что отчет Capriole ставит под сомнение надежность некоторых популярных on-chain метрик в 2024 году. Эдвардс утверждает, что запуск спотовых биткоин-ETF и выплаты Mt. Gox привели к массовому перераспределению капитала, что исказило многие on-chain показатели.

«Это означает, что любые индикаторы on-chain с данными о ’долгосрочных держателях‘ или ’предложении, последний раз активном более XX месяцев/лет‘, не могут считаться надежными в 2024 году», — поясняет Эдвардс.

Заключение

Макроэкономические факторы и исторические паттерны указывают на потенциал значительного роста цены биткоина в ближайшем будущем. Эдвардс резюмирует:

«У нас также есть золото, которое стабильно устанавливает новые исторические максимумы после прорыва несколько месяцев назад. Трудно представить себе более благоприятные условия для биткоина».

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