行情将出现逆转？盘点7个比特币抄底指标

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-09-12Last updated on 2024-09-12

Abstract

从多个角度判断市场情绪和币价波动。

原文作者：Biteye 核心贡献者 Viee

原文编辑：Biteye 核心贡献者 Crush

行情处在什么阶段了？

市场看涨，还是看跌？还能抄底吗？

跌到发慌，牛市还在吗？

为了更好地分析当前走势，Biteye 整理了 7 个 BTC 抄底指标。

帮助你从多个角度判断市场情绪和币价波动！转发收藏，慢慢学习！

行情将出现逆转？盘点7个比特币抄底指标

一、Ahr 999 指数

当前数值： 0.6 ，处于定投区间

解读：指标隐含了比特币短期定投的收益率及比特币价格与预期估值的偏离度。

0.45 抄底线、 1.2 定投线

  • 当 AHR 999 指数 < 0.45 ，指标会建议抄底

  • 当 AHR 999 指数在 0.45-1.2 之间，指标会建议买入定投

  • 当 AHR 999 指数 >1.2 ，那么币价已经比较高了，不适合操作

趋势回顾： 4 月中旬开始该指数在 1.2 附近震荡，自 6 月以来彻底跌破 1.2 ，进入定投区间。近三个月不断靠近抄底线 0.45 。

二、彩虹图指标（Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart）

当前数值：处于市场较冷区间，适合买入

解读：使用对数增长曲线来预测比特币潜在的未来价格方向。一共有 10 个色带，上方较暖的颜色显示市场过热，是较好的卖出点；较冷的颜色表示市场情绪低迷，是比较好的买入点。

趋势回顾：今年以来比特币价格基本都在较冷的颜色区间，市场还不到过热的时候，近期价格适合买入。

三、相对强弱指标（Relative Strength Index）

当前数值： 58.41 ，还未到达抄底区间

解读：RSI 指标通过计算一段时间内价格变化，判断最近的趋势属于看多还是看空。得分是相对于前 12 个月进行评估的。

  • 高 RSI 意味着价格走势相对于前 12 个月非常积极

  • 低 RSI 意味着价格变动相对于前 12 个月非常负面

  • RSI >70 ：比特币超买，可能很快就会下跌，可以卖出

  • RSI< 30 ：比特币超卖，可能逆转上涨，可以抄底

趋势回顾：从历史价格来看，RSI 指标还未低于 30 ，在参考该指标时可以按照越接近 30 越超卖、或者越接近 70 越超买来判断。

四、两年均线乘数指标（2-Year MA Multiplier）

当前数值：BTC 57604 美元，处于价格中性区间

  • 两年均线（2 YMA）： 38, 018 

  • 两年均线乘五（2 YMA x 5）： 190, 092 

解读：

使用了两年移动平均值线 2 Year Moving Average（绿色线），以及该移动平均值线的 5 倍乘积（红色线），突出显示了在哪些时期买卖比特币会产生巨大回报。

  • 价格< 2 YMA（绿线）：价格处于历史低位，抄底买入

  • 价格 > 2 YMA x 5 （红线 )：价格处于历史高位，逃顶卖出

  • 价格介于均线之间，则处于中性位置

趋势回顾：目前处于中性区间，还不到彻底抄底的时候。22 年 5 月至 23 年 10 月，该指标处于抄底区间。

五、未实现净利润 / 亏损指标（Net-Unrealized-Profit-Loss）

当前数值： 45.33% ，不是最佳的买入区间

解读：通过计算所有持有比特币的投资者的未实现利润或者亏损来评估市场情绪。

  • NUPL < 0 ：市场亏损极度恐惧，抄底买入

  • NUPL 0-0.25 ：微盈利区域，也适合买入

  • NUPL 0.25-0.5 ：牛熊转换，慢慢进入牛市

  • NUPL 0.5-0.75 ：牛市情绪强烈

  • NUPL 0.75-1 ：极度贪婪，考虑逃顶

也就是说，NUPL 越偏离 0 ，市场趋势越接近底部或顶部。

趋势回顾：自 23 年 1 月以来，市场脱离了亏损区间，逐渐盈利。今年 2 月 -7 月，RSI 大雨 0.5 ，牛市情绪强烈。然而近两个月 RSI 跌到 0.25-0.5 区间，市场情绪也同样回落了。

六、已实现价值 HODL 比率（Realized HODL Ratio）

当前数值： 2689.22 ，中性区间

解读：通过比较不同持有时间段的比特币数量，比如短期（1 个月内）和长期（1 年以上）的 UTXO（未花费交易输出）数量，来衡量市场活跃度和投机性。数值较高代表短期持有者数量多，市场投机性强；数值低意味着长期持有者占比高，市场较稳定。

  • 接近红色区域时，市场过热，适合获利了结

  • 接近绿色区域时，币价较冷，适合抄底买入

趋势回顾：自 23 年 1 月以来，RHODL Ratio 逐渐脱离绿色区域呈现上涨趋势。过去几个月处于震荡下降趋势中，反映出市场热度消退，但尚未完全进入冷却阶段。

七、MVRV 指标（Market Value to Realized Value Ratio）

当前数值： 1.83 ，市场未进入底部区间

解读：MVRV 是一个相对指标，为流通市值（Market Cap，MV）和已实现市值（Realized Cap，RV）的比率，也就是 BTC 的总市值 /BTC 最后一次活动价格算出来的市值的比值，代表着 BTC 持有者的盈利情况。

  • MVRV > 3.5 ，市场进入顶部，持有者盈利较大，会偏向抛售

  • MVRV < 1 ，市场到了底部，大多持有者处于亏损状态，持有意愿大于出售意愿，价格上涨的概率提高。

趋势回顾：近三四个月以来，该指标处于下降趋势，持有者盈利慢慢减少，越靠近底部区间，市场越容易反弹上涨。

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