SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240830):画门行情

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-08-30Last updated on 2024-08-30

Abstract

过去一天里,BTC价格在亚盘时段一度上涨4%至61000美元,但在美盘时段短线大跌至59000美元,回吐日内所有涨幅。事实上,近三天里BTC ETF的资金大量流出...

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240830):画门行情

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240830):画门行情

过去一天里,BTC 价格在亚盘时段一度上涨 4% 至 61000 美元,但在美盘时段短线大跌至 59000 美元,回吐日内所有涨幅。事实上,近三天里 BTC ETF 的资金大量流出,美国 SEC 日益严格的监管行动也在威胁着加密行业和 NFT,市场的卖压和看跌情绪增加,交易量降低,永续合约资金费率的下降也表明了参与度的降低和交易者恐惧加剧,如果价格跌破 58000 这道强支撑位,多头或将再度遭遇大量清算。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240830):画门行情

Source: Farside Investors

期权方面,今晚八点半即将公布美联储最为青睐的 PCE 数据,末日的 IV 因提前 Price-In 了这部分的不确定性而微微翘起,达到 50% 左右,而次日周末的 Forward IV 则大约在 36% -38% 区间,整体波动率水平变化不大,ETH 情况类似。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240830):画门行情

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240830):画门行情

Source: Deribit (截至 30 AUG 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240830):画门行情

Source: SignalPlus

尽管整体 IV 变化并不显著,但曲面形状上仍有值得注意的变化。首先是 Fly,BTC/ETH 年底俩月的微笑曲率显著上涨,交易上我们看到以 BTC 27 DEC 80000 vs 100000 为代表的看涨价差策略,单腿成交量超过 200 BTC。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240830):画门行情

另一方面,ETH 前端的 Vol Skew 再度回到低位。永续合约资金费率的下降和 ETF 流入变化导致以太坊持续面临看跌趋势,尽管近期币价试图从 2400 反弹,但却始终未能突破 2600 这道强劲阻力。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240830):画门行情

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240830):画门行情

BTC 上较为明显的 Flow 还有 6 SEP 的 Long Put Spread,以及 13 SEP/20 SEP 66000 上的日历价差。在 Forward IV 的期限结构上也看到了他们的影响。对部分交易员来说,自 8 月全球央行会议鲍威尔的发言过后, 9.6 日晚间公布的非农就业数据显得异常关键,尽管那时 6 SEP 的期权已经到期,交易所也暂时没有更临近的到期日,该日期或许也能覆盖到前一日小非农(ADP 就业人数)数据能够解释的不确定性。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240830):画门行情

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240830):画门行情

Data Source: Deribit, BTC 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240830):画门行情

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DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. 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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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