Биткоин застыл на уровне $61 000 в ожидании речи председателя ФРС

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2023-08-23Last updated on 2024-08-23

Рынок криптовалют замер в ожидании ключевого макроэкономического события недели. Курс биткоина вернулся к отметке $61 000 накануне ежегодного симпозиума Федеральной резервной системы США в Джексон-Холе.

1-дневный график BTC/USD. Источник: Bitstamp/TradingView

Выступление Пауэлла как ключевой фактор

Главное внимание участников рынка приковано к речи председателя ФРС Джерома Пауэлла (Jerome Powell), запланированной на 17:00 по московскому времени. Трейдеры внимательно следят за сигналами о возможном смягчении денежно-кредитной политики.

По данным скринера инструмента Fedwatch Чикагской товарной биржи, рынок по-прежнему оценивает вероятность снижения процентных ставок в сентябре как 100%. Это может стать мощным бычьим фактором для криптовалют и других рисковых активов.

«Вопрос уже не в том, будет ли ФРС снижать ставки, а в том, на сколько — на 25 или 50 базисных пунктов в сентябре», — отметили аналитики The Kobeissi Letter.

Согласно последним данным инструмента FedWatch от CME Group, наиболее вероятным сценарием считается снижение ставки на 0,25%.

Вероятность снижения ставок ФРС США в сентябре. Источник: Fedwatch

Влияние снижения ставок на биткоин

Несмотря на то, что снижение ставок обычно способствует росту ликвидности на рынке рисковых активов, исторические данные показывают, что реакция курса биткоина может быть неоднозначной.

Трейдер Люк Мартин (Luke Martin), анализируя поведение BTC во время последнего цикла снижения ставок в 2019 году, отметил:

«В прошлый раз, когда ФРС снижала ставки в 2019 году, это совпало с небольшим снижением цены. Затем последовал крах из-за Covid, снижение ставок до нуля и бычий рынок, подпитываемый печатным станком».

Сравнение курса биткоина с уровнем ставок ФРС. Источник: Люк Мартин

Техническая картина BTC

Курс BTC/USD продолжает двигаться в узком диапазоне с ключевым уровнем сопротивления около $62 000. По данным CoinGlass, на уровне $61 435 сформировался дополнительный блок ликвидности по заявкам на продажу.

Карта ликвидаций позиций по биткоину. Источник: CoinGlass

«Текущая ситуация на рынке биткоина не указывает на чрезмерно оптимистичные настроения трейдеров или избыточное использование заемных средств для открытия длинных позиций», — прокомментировал ситуацию создатель аналитического ресурса Checkonchain, известный под псевдонимом Checkmate.

На 4-часовом графике BTC/USD пытается преодолеть сопротивление в виде 200-периодной экспоненциальной скользящей средней (EMA200). Популярный трейдер Elja прогнозирует:

«Закрепление выше этого уровня приведет к росту биткоина до $64 000-$65 000. Если произойдет откат, ожидайте консолидации».

4-часовой график BTC/BUSDT и EMA200. Источник: Elja

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