SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-06-03Last updated on 2024-06-03

Abstract

数字货币方面，根据Leon Waldmann在推特展示的Glassnode数据来看，自ETH ETF批准后，BTC & ETH在中心化交易所的存量占比已经降至历史新低。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

上周五美联储重点关注的核心 PCE 物价指数月率录得 0.2% ，略低于预期 0.3% ，创下 2023 年 12 月以来新低。数据公布后美债收益率连续四天下降，回吐了上周半数涨幅，十年期跌至 4.5% 以下，现报 4.475% ，两年期报 4.871% 。风险市场得到提振，道指和标普分别上涨 1.51% /0.8% ，纳指接近平收。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Source: Investing

数字货币方面，根据 Leon Waldmann 在推特展示的 Glassnode 数据来看，自 ETH ETF 批准后，BTC & ETH 在中心化交易所的存量占比已经降至历史新低，价值大约$ 3 B 的以太坊离开了中心化交易所，增加了潜在空头挤兑的可能性。BTC 今日上行突破了 68500 美元阻力位，开始向下一道阻力位 71500 发起挑战，截止目前，BTC 已在 68500 附近盘旋了接近 12 天，如果突破无望，有可能再次回到 66000 寻求支撑。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Source: TradingView；Twitter

期权方面，BTC 前端 IV 在进入工作日之前小幅反弹，但整体仍处在历史三个月的 25% 分位数以下的相对低点；ETH 略低于历史中位数，期限相对曲线偏陡，观察过去 24 小时的成交也可以看到，六月中上旬看涨期权的卖压强劲，相反六七月底及其以后的 Call 大受欢迎，或许也和 ETF S-1 的批准预期有关，当前市场“共识”仍是“最快七月批准”，届时资金进场，币价有望再度上行突破，但从另一方面说，当前 Grayscale 的 Ehereum Trust（ETHE）管理资金规模高达$ 11 B，所以也有人担心 ETF 批准发售以后市场会重演当时 GBTC 的抛压。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Source: Deribit （截至 3 JUN 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Source: SignalPlus，BTC & ETH ATM Vols

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Source: SignalPlus，BTC & ETH 25 dRR

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Data Source: Deribit， ETH 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Data Source: Deribit， BTC 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240603)：低IV

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：SignalPlus 123）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

Related Reads

Podcast Notes | After Watching 141 YouTube Investment Guru Videos, I Found Everyone's Bullish on These 5 Stocks

Podcast Summary: After analyzing 141 YouTube investment videos from 21 creators, five stocks were consistently highlighted: Alphabet (Google), Nvidia, Micron, CoreWeave, and Uber. However, the analysis reveals a key concentration: four of these (Google, Nvidia, Micron, CoreWeave) represent essentially the same AI-focused bet, with only Uber standing as an independent pick. The podcaster, Brian, provides his specific views and entry strategies for each. **Key Stocks & Brian's Stance:** - **Alphabet (Google):** Viewed as cheap based on profits but expensive based on sales. Brian is only buying a half-position via monthly investments at ~$362. - **Nvidia:** Models suggest it is undervalued (~$221 vs. a ~$290-330 fair value range), but significant client debt ($500B) raises risk. Brian holds a 12% position (his cap) and would not buy below $148. - **Micron:** Brian's model fair value is ~$1450, but it's a cyclical stock. He is buying only on schedule after it broke below its 50-day moving average (~$961), with a "story broken" line at $434. - **CoreWeave:** Has large contracts but faces scrutiny over demand sustainability, with Nvidia backing unsold capacity. Brian holds zero position due to limited history and structural concerns. - **Uber:** The only non-AI pick, valued cheaply on strong cash flow (~$100B annually). Brian's fair value is ~$109 (current price ~$67), and he is buying a full position. **Core Insight:** Most discussed topics (76/141 videos) were chips, cloud, and AI models. A portfolio built from such consensus may appear diversified but often constitutes a single, concentrated bet on AI. Brian concludes with a disciplined framework for any investment: compare to its own history, understand what the current price assumes, separate a good company from a good price, and pre-define your exit conditions.

marsbit11m ago

Podcast Notes | After Watching 141 YouTube Investment Guru Videos, I Found Everyone's Bullish on These 5 Stocks

marsbit11m ago

From 'Interest Rate Trading' to 'Dollar Debasement Trade', the Logic Behind Gold's Rise Has Changed

From "Rate Trade" to "Debasement Trade": The Logic Behind Gold's Rally Has Shifted Gold surged by 17% in August. According to UBS, the key development was a fundamental shift in the driving narrative mid-rally—from the traditional "rate trade" to a "debasement trade" focused on fiscal and dollar concerns. The bank breaks the summer rebound into two acts. The first was a technically-driven bounce from a solid base, supported by light positioning, resilient physical demand (especially from central banks like China's), and softening US economic data. The second act, triggered by the US Treasury's announcement to double long-term bond buybacks, marked a shift in gold's pricing logic. The market began viewing higher long-term yields as a sign of fiscal sustainability risks rather than economic strength, weakening gold's traditional inverse correlation with real rates. Gold's role evolved from an "opportunity cost" asset to a hedge against "fiscal credibility" and currency debasement, further aided by a weakening US dollar. UBS maintains a bullish outlook, noting rising upside risks to its long-term forecasts. While it lowered its 2026 year-end target to $4,675/oz, its 2027+ forecasts are unchanged, with an upside scenario target as high as $6,500/oz. The primary near-term risk is a hawkish Fed pivot, which could trigger a correction. However, UBS views any such dip as a buying opportunity, not a trend reversal, unless AI-driven growth allows for significantly higher rates. The report concludes that as gold is increasingly seen as a hedge against fiscal and currency risks, its strategic role in portfolios is changing. With overall gold allocations still low, there is significant room for further price appreciation if debt sustainability concerns drive sustained strategic buying.

marsbit12m ago

From 'Interest Rate Trading' to 'Dollar Debasement Trade', the Logic Behind Gold's Rise Has Changed

marsbit12m ago

Not Just Trading and Meme: These 5 Projects on Base Are Exploring New On-Chain Use Cases

Beyond Trading and Memes: 5 Projects Exploring New On-Chain Use Cases on Base While much of the crypto space is dominated by speculation, Base—Coinbase's Ethereum Layer 2 with over $5B TVL—is fostering innovative projects beyond the usual categories. Here are five notable examples: 1. **Hydrex**: A MetaDEX/AMM aggregator that pools native and external liquidity (e.g., from Uniswap, Morpho) to offer optimal swap rates. It features a ve(3,3)-style incentive model and single-signature transactions. 2. **SwapRoyale**: A fantasy trading competition app where users pay a fixed entry fee to trade with a virtual $100k portfolio in real-time contests. It gamifies trading with various tournament formats and has already distributed over $100k in prizes. 3. **BlockRun**: A permissionless AI gateway and payment layer for the on-chain agent economy. It allows autonomous systems to discover, pay for, and execute services using USDC on Base via the x402 micropayment standard, enabling pay-per-use AI. 4. **PixieChess**: A play-to-earn digital chess game where each piece is a collectible NFT with unique abilities that alter classic rules. Value is kept within the ecosystem, with a treasury funding real ETH prizes for winners. 5. **Tokensto**: A platform that lets users sell their unused AI API credits (e.g., from OpenRouter) for cash. It automatically prices credits and facilitates direct payouts to crypto wallets. These projects demonstrate that builders on Base are actively experimenting with consumer experiences, the agent economy, and novel gaming mechanics, suggesting the surface area for meaningful on-chain activity is broader than current narratives imply.

marsbit56m ago

Not Just Trading and Meme: These 5 Projects on Base Are Exploring New On-Chain Use Cases

marsbit56m ago

The Second Form of Tokenized U.S. Stocks is Loading, Which Targets Can Be Watched

The article discusses the evolution of meme tokens on platforms like Robinhood Chain and the broader potential of tokenized U.S. stocks in a DeFi context. It introduces NetNet ($NET), likening its model to a modernized OlympusDAO. $NET's value is backed by a treasury, and users pay a premium (e.g., 17x over NAV) betting on its future growth from fees and yield-generating activities. The project also offers stock-token related "gambling games" (e.g., SpaceX Invaders, TURBO). Next, it examines Down to Finance ($DTF), described as a decentralized platform for creating ETF-like strategy tokens (DETFs). These DETFs, which can hold assets like tokenized stocks, liquidity positions, and vaults, each operate like an OlympusDAO with autonomous supply adjustments. This model is seen as a more advanced step towards composable on-chain RWA infrastructure, though it carries technical risks. The core argument is that the ultimate goal is not just meme-driven trading but establishing fully-functional, on-chain global stock markets. While current models (like NetNet's) lean on speculative mechanisms, projects like Down to Finance point towards a future where tokenized RWAs gain true programmability and composability on-chain.

marsbit56m ago

The Second Form of Tokenized U.S. Stocks is Loading, Which Targets Can Be Watched

marsbit56m ago

Price Cut Just 20%, Bill Drops 80%: GPT-5.6 Steps into Claude's Turf to Recalculate the Programming Bill

While the official price for GPT-5.6 Terra only dropped by 20%, developer costs for successful coding tasks have reportedly been slashed by 82% when using the model within AWS's Kiro platform. This dramatic reduction stems not from model price cuts alone, but from significant efficiency gains within the integrated "agent + model" system. By optimizing the workflow—reducing unnecessary tokens, tool calls, and failed attempts—the collaboration between OpenAI and AWS has minimized costly computational detours. Key to this efficiency is Kiro's "spec-driven" approach, which refines vague user requests into clear technical specifications before the model begins coding, preventing expensive misunderstandings and rewrites. Benchmark results highlight that the choice of AI agent framework significantly impacts cost, with different frameworks yielding vastly different bills for similar performance scores. The integration marks OpenAI's entry into Kiro, a platform previously dominated by Anthropic's Claude. AWS now offers developers a choice between GPT-5.6 models (Sol, Terra, Luna) and Claude, fostering direct competition. This shift reframes the model selection question from "cost per million tokens" to "total cost to complete the task," emphasizing end-to-end efficiency over raw benchmark scores.

marsbit1h ago

Price Cut Just 20%, Bill Drops 80%: GPT-5.6 Steps into Claude's Turf to Recalculate the Programming Bill

marsbit1h ago

Trading

Spot
活动图片