ArkStream Capital：2024年Web3将爆发的9大赛道

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-02-22Last updated on 2024-02-22

Abstract

ETH L2、模块化、BTCfi、Restaking、Gamefi......

1、ETH L2 Summer 如期而至 

ETH+L2已经实质上是最大的同构跨链生态群了。随着Starknet/zkSync /Scroll/Blast 的上市，技术流与市场流两种方向的 PK，会使L2的市场竞争白热化。

关注标的：Starknet / zkSync / Scroll / Blast / Manta

2、模块化是公链技术不停迭代的必然  

随着 Celestia 的上线，DA 层的市场占有率有脱离以太坊独家垄断的迹象。当下，OP Stack、Polygon CDK 等都提供了成熟的智能合约架构，也让行业正在结合比特币前沿的BitVM论文做比特币 DA 化的探索。例如共享/去中心化定序器，RaaS服务等细分子领域的遍地开花，都标志着区块链向模块化的快速迭代。

关注标的：Celestia / Altlayer / Dymension / Avail / Fuel / Espresso

3、BTCfi 爆发 达到比特币 10% 流动性释放  

原教旨主义+市场热点会爆发出来技术洁癖者想象之外的能量，BTC 流动性释放的价值是一座还没有被挖掘殆尽的金矿。铭文的叙事之后，是 BTC 的L2与 BTC 应用的浪潮，随着比特币的流动性有望被释放 10% 以上，BTCfi 会承载一个 1000 亿美金以上的市场。 

关注标的：Stacks / Merlin /  B² Network / Chainway 

4、Restaking 的共识套娃乐高 

模块化区块链叙事之中，在共识层进行探索的项目非常有限，其中比特币和以太坊提供的共识安全是全网公认的两大项目。Restaking 的提出可以很好的帮助新兴区块链项目在启动阶段获得合适的安全性，从而避免采用过高代币排放通胀的不健康代币机制。这里头比特币生态以 Babylon 为主，BTC 相关的生态也有陆续采用 Babylon 的，而以太坊则是 EigenLayer 领头，已然在 LSD 的叙事上面又衍生出 LRD（流动性再质押衍生品？）的叙事。在 LSD/LRD 叙事之上，拆分本息的Pendle作为生态独有的占位项目，在 TVL、用户数据和代币价格都持续表现亮眼。

关注标的：Eigenlayer / Babylon / ether.fi / Puffer / Pendle

5、Gamefi 的第二个周期 

MPC 钱包的大规模普及，扩大了用户技术。经过了 3 年迭代的具备更多可玩性的游戏，会比他们的前辈具备更强大的用户捕获能力。更丰富的游戏内容，会使经济系统的复杂性增加，逐步脱离上个周期的纯庞氏属性。

关注标的：Illuvium / Space Nation / Lumiterra / Matr1x

6、AI+web3：在算法，算力和可验证性的长期叙事 

AI 是科技领域的主线叙事，它的迭代会给 Crypto 一直持续的注入活力。Onchain AI 可以利用智能合约实现机器学习和人工智能的自动化与动态化。同时，区块链技术为 AI 的各个方面提供了透明化和可验证化的解决方案（如 zkML/opML）。此外，AI 模型、GPU 算力、数据喂养以及数据标记等关键要素都可以整合到区块链里面。

关注标的：TAO / OLAS / JANCTION

7、Depin-物理飞轮性 DeFi，指数增长 

是一种新的现象级的线上+线下代币分发与服务提供模式，在基础设施逐步完善的周期，Crypto 的应用会使 Depin 的网络指数型增长。

关注标的：Mobile / Io.net / Meson / POKT

8、Social 社交货币化实验进行中 

尽管 Friend.tech 的尝试失败了，但是社交的货币化的爆发力得到了展现，同时抗审查性与安全性是社交对Web3的呼唤。Lens/Farcaster 等社交协议依然承载着希望。

关注标的：Farcaster / Lens / Nostr

9、DeFi 衍生品，蓄势待发 

金融场景永远是区块链最匹配的高价值和有 Real Yield 的应用。GMX的全局共享流动池，Gains 资本利用率高效的合成方案等持续引领市场。这轮牛市，如 Aevo 和 Whales 的期货协议也带来了 Pre-market 的爆发。我们认为，衍生品是长期基本面最好的叙事之一。

关注标的：GMX / Gains / Drift / Apex / Aevo / Whales

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