NFT市场正在崩溃?不同数据在“打架”!

华尔街见闻Published on 2022-05-07Last updated on 2022-05-07

Abstract

为什么不同平台的数据会差这么多?

关于NFT市场是否正在崩溃,不同平台的数据正在“打架”。
周四,《华尔街日报》一篇题为《NFT销售趋于平缓》的文章称,NFT(非同质化代币)市场正在崩溃,并援引了链上数据分析平台NonFungible的数据以及两起NFT交易价格严重下滑的案例作为佐证。
NonFungible数据显示,本周NFT日均销量下降至约1.9万个,与去年9月约22.5万个的历史峰值相比,下降了92%;同时,上周NFT市场的活跃钱包数量从去年11月11.9万个的高点下降至约1.4万个,降幅达88%。

橘线显示销售数量,白线显示活跃市场钱包量。Source: Nonfungible 
此外,去年3月以1630个以太币(当时价值290万美元)标下Twitter联合创始人Jack Dorsey首则推文NFT的马来西亚区块链服务公司Bridge Oracle的首席执行官Sina Estavi,于4月上旬在OpenSea上将该NFT以14969个以太币的价格挂单出售。
但结果令人跌破眼镜,在Sina Estavi设定的售卖期限到期后,据OpenSea数据显示,仅有21次出价,报价从0.0019个以太币(约6美元)到2个以太币(约6232美元)不等,距当初拍卖价格下跌99%以上。
另一位NFT买家在4月初以约3.2万美元以太币购买了Snoop Dogg发行的名为“Doggy #4292”的NFT,现在正在拍卖,但目前最高出价仅为0.267个以太坊,约合752美元。
《华尔街日报》表示,这种缺乏兴趣的现象并不少见。根据谷歌Trends的数据,以NFT的搜索次数来衡量,人们对这个词的兴趣在今年1月份达到峰值,此后下降了约80%。供需失衡也在损害NFT市场,根据分析公司Chainalysis的数据,截至今年4月底,已有920万份NFT售出,而只有180万人购买。
与其他平台的数据完全对不上
但随后,针对NonFungible的数据,有网友指出该平台的数据并不准确,在与其他家数据分析平台的数据相比较后,发现与前者大相径庭。
Dune analytics的数据显示,今年以来NFT的交易量并没有比去年低,甚至在Opensea上最高的一个交易量纪录月份就是今年一月份,这和NonFungible的数据呈现两极化的差异。
该平台数据还显示,一周内以太坊NFT的每日美元交易量是自2月以来的最高水平,仅在5月1日,热门市场OpenSea的交易量就接近5.5亿美元。

另外一个分析平台token terminal的数据也显示,今年NFT的交易量并没有呈现明显的下滑趋势。

风险投资公司Dragonfly Capital的合伙人Tom Schmidt也针对华尔街日报这篇文章发表评论称:
华尔街日报发表了一篇文章,声称NFT交易正在趋于平缓,这似乎完全基于来自 Nonfungible 的不正确数据(相比 DuneAnalytics 数据)。
没有人费心检查主要数据的来源吗?还有为什么不是讨论交易量?

为什么不同平台的数据会差这么多?
有网友表示NonFungible平台的数据不包括许多蓝筹项目,许多Opensea上的项目也没有收录,因此数据并没有参考意义。
分析平台Nansen按类型对NFT收藏品进行了分类,发现“蓝筹”NFT——既定且备受推崇的品牌,例如无聊猿猴游艇俱乐部(Bored Ape Yacht Club)、Azuki代币等的表现远远优于艺术或游戏代币。
其追踪前10个NFT项目的Nansen Blue Chip-10指数今年迄今上涨了81%,而追踪顶级艺术品和游戏NFT收藏的指数则分别下跌了39%和49%。
华尔街见闻此前提及,有收藏家表示,市场似乎正在分化为相对稳定的“蓝筹”NFT,以及除投机之外没有太多价值的其他项目。
Nonfungible的数据也显示,5月1日无聊猿土地拍卖的异常火爆,使当日该平台NFT的销售量和活跃钱包数量达到2021年11月8日以来的最高。不过《华尔街日报》的结论显然忽略了当天的“异常值”。
不过话说回来,虽然NonFungible的数据可能存疑,但这是不是代表NFT市场仍未进入衰退,可能也无法确定。
在2020年时,NFT总市值仅略高于8000万美元,到了2021年,市场规模已超过177亿美元,短短一年内暴涨超过220倍以上;然而随着近期整体加密货币市场萎靡不振,加上美联储货币紧缩政策影响整个金融市场的高风险押注,而NFT属于其中投机性最强的投资类别之一,投资者们也开始怀疑NFT市场是否开始“泡沫破裂”了。
美国“网络大神”Gary Vaynerchuk虽然是NFT的支持者,但他此前也认为NFT目前炒作过头,预言一旦NFT淘金热退烧,98%项目将归零。区块链实验室Protocol Labs的NFT研发主管Jonathan Victor则认为,当人们不再执着于NFT字眼后, NFT的实用性才会显现。 

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