比特币减半2年后怎么样了?Luna基金会一路增持、闪电网络大扩张...

白话区块链Published on 2022-05-04Last updated on 2022-05-04

Abstract

4月5日,美国上市公司MicroStrategy官宣已于2月15日至4月4日之间再次以约1.905亿美元购买了4167枚比特币,平均每枚比特币45714美元。

4月5日,美国上市公司MicroStrategy官宣已于2月15日至4月4日之间再次以约1.905亿美元购买了4167枚比特币,平均每枚比特币45714美元。截止2022年4月5日,MicroStrategy拥有129218枚比特币,当前持仓均价为46742美元。

作为比特币的老屯家,MicroStrategy对比特币的买买买已经是大手笔的明牌策略,但就在今年,一个更大手笔的新秀屯家开始出现,以至于在短短不到三个月的时间内,就累积了MicroStrategy近三分之一的比特币库存。

01

接棒的比特币「明牌」屯家LFG

在2021年之前,灰度投资(GrayscaleInvestment)几乎是整个加密世界举足轻重的唯一明牌机构巨鲸,尤其是其对比特币的大举押注,一举一动都对市场影响颇深:

灰度的托管资产总规模2018年12月底为8.25亿美元,至2019年底飙升至21亿美元,而到2020年年底,更是突破200亿美元,一年之间猛翻10倍,成为加密世界举足轻重的明牌巨鲸。

但伴随着2021年互联网大厂与传统机构布局的提速,灰度自身的影响力和声量都在逐步变弱,2021年全年持仓仅增加约150亿美元,远逊于2020年的增长步伐(这还没有考虑2021年的价格因素影响)。

与此同时,一代新人换旧人,今年初开始,另一个出乎所有人意料之外的明牌机构拾起了灰度的「买买买」接力棒——2月23日,Terra生态非营利组织LunaFoundationGuard(LFG)通过场外销售LUNAToken完成10亿美元融资,所筹资金计划用于为UST建立以比特币计价的外汇储备。

LunaFoundationGuard是TerraformLabs(Terra实际运营主体)在今年1月20日成立的Terra生态非营利组织,按照官方说法,LFG设立的目的旨在保障UST稳定挂钩,并为Terra生态开源技术开发、研究与教育、社区成长做出贡献的群体分配赠款。

简言之,LFG向一众投资机构售卖了价值10亿美元的LUNA,然后计划把这10亿美元用来购买比特币,注资创造储备金,充当UST的赎回机制,以确保在加密市场大幅抛售期间,UST的价格仍与美元挂钩。

随后这两个半月的时间里,LFG开始通过持续并大笔地迅速增加比特币储备来尽力淡化自己的算稳属性:

从1月27日开始,被标记为Luna基金会(LunaFoundationGuard,LFG)的地址里比特币持仓量不断增加,平均两天增持约3000枚BTC。

根据Terra生态非营利组织LunaFoundationGuard(LFG)官网储备数据显示,截至4月20日,比特币储备余额为4.25万枚,USDC储备近4亿美元,LUNA储备225万枚,UST储备1.5亿美元。

Terra创始人DoKwon甚至放出豪言:除了中本聪,我们会成为全球最大的BTC单一持有者,这不禁让人想起EOS母公司Block.one通过EOS募集持有的多达14万枚比特币。

所以如果真的按照DoKwon的说法,LFG至少还要在二级市场上购买逾10万枚比特币,市价超过40亿美元,这对于比特币市场而言无疑是长期的明牌看多力量。

02

加速向传统世界攻城略地

与此同时,今年的比特币2022大会也可谓是比特币的最佳秀场,「传统」属性明显爆棚——云集了不少政界人士、金融大鳄、技术精英和科技行业名流。

包括Visa、Mastercard、GalaxyDigital、Paxos等,这也从侧面表现了比特币正在传统世界不断攻城略地的奇特魅力。

其中Robinhood首席产品官AparnaChennapragada在迈阿密举行的比特币2022大会上发表讲话时表示,比特币是该公司2022年迄今为止兑换量最大的用户最常买入资产。

Robinhood的加密货币钱包也将支持比特币闪电网络,且此前加入等待列表的用户已可以通过其加密货币钱包发送和接收加密资产。

由Block(原Square)运营的移动支付服务CashApp比特币产品负责人MilesSuter在大会上也宣布,美国客户能够自动将部分(或全部)的存款投资到比特币中。

而前软银CEO则更是表示,他现在将10%的投资组合用于比特币,对即将到来的经济衰退可能性的担忧促使他将比特币持有量增加了80-90%,甚至连墨西哥第三大富豪都表示自己投资组合的60%是比特币和比特币相关股票(具体参见《墨西哥第三大富豪:全球恶性通胀,拯救我们的或是加密资产》)。

在2021年之前,整个加密行业只有灰度充当合格投资者与机构介入Crypto市场的一个中间管道,而如今传统机构、资本甚至主权国家对加密资产的认知和态度都开始急速转变,以至于主动入场布局,这是比特币诞生以来从未有过的明媚场景。

自2010年以来,比特币被宣布死亡或死亡的次数大概有390次,2020年,它被死亡的频率大大降低,只有11次,而自2021年以后,几乎为零。

与此同时,2021年在区块链的开发领域,以太坊7月的「伦敦升级」几乎占据了主要的媒体报道版面,但不同于以太坊里无边界创新不断涌现的蓬勃生态,比特币在11月的「Tarpoot升级」倒是声量很小。

甚至不少行业的用户都已经觉得比特币的开发可能处于停滞状态,这也几乎是比特币网络开发进程逐步被市场忽视的最真实写照。

03

比特币生态图景的闷声推进

其实从2020年以来,大家似乎已经逐步默认了比特币「数字黄金」的定位,而淡忘了曾经引发业内激辩乃至分叉背后的「全球货币」支付属性,看起来技术应用方面的升级也没那么重要了。

虽然如今大多主流的DeFi依旧在以太坊生态中,但比特币网络还是在不断演进的,尤其是去年的Tarpoot升级为比特币带来性能、隐私乃至智能合约方面的全新组合和可能性,或许也会在未来逐渐加入更复杂的编程能力(具体参见《比特币即将迎来的Taproot升级,会带来什么重大变化?》)。

04

闪电网络的持续演进

与此同时,比特币的支付的功能现在已经基本被转移到了Layer2上,特别是闪电网络,萨尔瓦多作为世界上唯一一个将比特币认定为法定货币的国家萨尔瓦多就用了闪电网络,将来或许还会有其他发展中国家跟进(包括这两天闹出乌龙的其他国家等等)。

1ML网站统计的数据显示,截至4月12日,致力于比特币小额支付的「闪电网络」(LightningNetwork)锁定的比特币数量已突破360枚(3619枚),节点数量逾3.6万个(36263个)。

而4月2日,Kraken平台也宣布已支持比特币闪电网络,并面向所有用户开放。Kraken表示,支持闪电网络可以使得用户将BTC转入或转出Kraken账户时实现即时结算并降低费用。

05

比特币债券的金融场景探索

3月20日,萨尔瓦多表示或因国际局势动荡推迟发行比特币债券,该债券原本计划在Blockstream创建的比特币侧链Liquid上推出,并附带6.5%的票息。

「发行债券筹集的资金将用于建设一座名为比特币之城的城市,此次债券发行将使萨尔瓦多成为新的世界金融中心」,2021年11月,时任Blockstream首席战略官缪永权(SamsonMow)在萨尔瓦多比特币债券的集会上如是说道。

不过即便被推迟,此次萨尔瓦多政府计划在比特币侧链「Liquid」上发行的「比特币债券」,所募资金的一半将用于购买比特币,并持有五年,其余的将用于资助与比特币有关的建设内容。

06

小结

不知不觉中,今年距上次比特币减半已过了快两年,据下次减半也还有两年之期,即便从关注度不高的比特币自身演进进行观察:

RGB协议、Slashtags(服务比特币闪电网络生态的身份账户、联系人、通信、支付)、集成众多P2P服务的Impervious浏览器、基于Taproot的资产协议Taro、闪电TokenOmniBOLT等等都颇值得期待。

2020年为比特币打下了「数字黄金」的深深烙印,2021年在以萨尔瓦多「首吃螃蟹」的货币实验之下,结合闪电网络和「最雄心勃勃的升级」Taproot升级,比特币「全球货币」的支付属性也迎来了反戈一击。

而2022年,伴随着新明牌屯家LFG的登场,以及比特币闪电网络生态的演进和比特币债券等金融场景的衍生,比特币的各维度扩张明显几乎都迎来了全新的变量,而最终会把比特币导向何处,颇值得期待。

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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