今日推荐 | Bankless:看空比特币这轮行情

MarsBitPublished on 2023-11-01Last updated on 2023-11-01

Abstract

分析师Jack对只涨不跌的加密市场情绪持谨慎态度

比特币已经从9月中旬的低点反弹了40%,随着现货比特币ETF即将获得批准,比特币的价格正在上涨,加密 Twitter欣喜若狂!
加密投资公司Galaxy发布的一份报告显示,市场对现货比特币ETF的看涨预期表明,一旦得到批准将产生140亿美元的比特币购买压力,并应在推出后的第一年将比特币价格飙升74% !
但是,尽管留在加密领域的勇敢者已经将自己定位到新的高点,但需要外部资本才能将我们带到那里,而仅仅批准现货比特币ETF并不能保证会有资金流入。
尽管普遍的说法是,机构和投资顾问正在等待现货ETF的到来,以在加密领域引发资本海啸,但似乎没有什么证据支持这种说法,自2022年7月以来,加拿大现货比特币ETF的管理规模几乎没有变化。

比特币


https://x.com/TXMCtrades/status/1718116872195805355?s=20
加密货币仍然是一个零和游戏,资产争夺有限的可用美元。泵只是内部资本旋转的结果。现货比特币ETF获批后,资本将涌入该行业的证据根本不存在!
像BTC、LINK和SOL这样的代币已经成为人们关注的焦点,由于流动性极其薄弱,它们能够勉强维持收益,这使得少量的买入压力能够导致大规模的波动,但大盘落后于领先者。这表明,这次反弹是由少数资产的表现出色所带动的,而且加密市场缺乏广度。

比特币


来源:TradingView
正如市场在过去一个月里从冷漠转向繁荣一样,市场情绪也可能将在一纳秒内向相反的方向转变。虽然最近的反弹令人兴奋,但现在是时候降低你的预期,提醒自己我们仍处于宏观经济的深处。
美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)一直坚定地承诺让通胀回到美联储2%的长期通胀目标,这一目标是通过加息实现的。与此同时,美国赤字不断膨胀,中国和日本等主要美国财政部正在抛售美元资产,以捍卫苦苦挣扎的本国货币,这进一步给收益率带来上行压力。
日本央行(Bank of Japan)昨日宣布,将修改其收益率曲线控制政策,允许日本政府长期债券的利率超过此前1%的上限,这标志着利率可能需要继续上调。

比特币


https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1718991974236094529?s=20
加密货币是长期投资,“长期较高”的利率可能导致流动性从风险市场(如加密货币和股票)蒸发,进一步抑制估值。
进一步加息的唯一替代方案是经济崩溃,货币政策制定者会通过降息来应对。尽管全球经济对之前的加息表现出了弹性,但金融体系正开始出现裂痕,这可能会拖累风险资产的价格。
消费者支出是通过不断增长的债务水平来融资的,但高利率导致信用卡违约率飙升,并将汽车贷款违约率推至新高!虽然刺激措施推迟了商业周期不可避免的结束,但它导致了通货膨胀,而补救措施——更高的利率——使许多借款人无力偿还贷款。
与此同时,自5月份以来,个人实际可支配收入一直在下降,这使得消费者没有多少钱来偿还日益增加的债务负担。这表明,拖欠和违约的情况可能会进一步增加,这将导致支出水平进一步下降,从而迫使企业裁员,导致经济进一步萎缩。

比特币


来源:FRED
虽然快速和宽松的货币时代帮助加密货币在2021年创下历史新高,但新冠疫情后的信贷泡沫正面临破裂的危险,投资者将需要争夺美元,由此产生的通货紧缩萧条几乎肯定会使加密投资面临压力。
唯一有希望在泡沫破裂中幸存下来的资产是比特币,如果各国央行采取新一轮量化宽松政策来遏制危机,比特币可能会成为货币贬值的潜在对冲工具。然而,在通货紧缩时期,它仍将与美元竞争。
虽然在低流动性环境下,适量的FOMO足以导致空头挤压,使加密货币暂时走高,暂时走高,但利率将继续上升,直到事情开始破裂,而当这种情况发生时,失业率上升和收入进一步下降将迫使长期持有者投降并出售他们的币。
无论是在“长期走高”还是通缩萧条的情况下,几乎没有资产兑美元有机会。🐻

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2.2k Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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