贝莱德比特币 ETF 有哪些关键日期?有何交易机会?

MarsBitPublished on 2023-06-30Last updated on 2023-06-30

Abstract

这是市场上真正值得关注的不可多得的机会之一。

贝莱德提交现货比特币 ETF 申请后,有一些关键日期和时间节点值得关注。

比特币


先回顾一下 Grayscale 去年对 SEC 的起诉,Grayscale 称 SEC 不让他们将 GBTC 转换为现货 ETF。
法院的判决将在未来几周或几个月内的某个时间做出,这可能为潜在的现货 ETF 成功铺平道路。可见,贝莱德现在提交现货 ETF 申请并不是巧合。

比特币


如果查看时间表,你可能会认为 2023 年 8 月 12 日之前我们不会获得有用的新闻信息。
并非如此!请注意,ARK 与 21shares 在今年 4 月也申请了现货比特币 ETF。你将在 6 月 29 日获悉结果,当然,可能会延迟或被拒绝。
此外,6 月 26 日已经过去,你可能随时得知法院对 Grayscale 的裁决结果。
如果他们成功了,贝莱德的申请获得批准的可能性就会大幅上升,因为 Grayscale 的观点是:「兄弟,你怎么能只批准基于期货的 ETF 呢?」
下面我们看看一些关键的日期和交易策略。
6 月 26 日 -30 日:比特币市场有相当多的期权 OI(未平仓合约)在本周五到期。
观点:币安整体风险临近。
头寸:由于多头清算或 ARK/21shares ETF 被拒绝,比特币报价在 2.84 万美元 - 2.2 万美元之间。

比特币


7 月 1 日 -8 月 11 日
观点:SEC 仍有理由拒绝 ETF 申请,但专家认为 Grayscale 胜诉的可能性高达 80%,在这种情况下比特币价格大概率会上升。
头寸:多头 BTC / 空头 ETH 、多头 BTC / 空头 MATIC 、在隐含波动小于 50% 时率买入 2023 年 8 月 25 日到期的比特币 3 万美元看涨期权。

比特币


8 月 12 日
观点:最有可能的结果是 SEC 推迟决议,特别是考虑到针对 Coinbase 的法律案件尚未判决。
头寸:削减看涨期权、进行配对交易(8 月 12 日之前)。避免杠杆,准备好做空。
8 月 13 日之后
此时 ETF 申请被拒绝或延迟是短期看跌的信号,这将证实我的观点,即 ETF 消息是这个长期游戏计划的红鲱鱼(比喻用来转移旁观者注意力的事物):

  1. Coinbase 必须被监管
  2. 不能让 Tether 从美国政府那里赚取 60 亿美元的利息
  3. 「干掉」币安
  4. USDC 引入 KYC

这是市场上真正值得关注的不可多得的机会之一:

  • 如果现货 ETF 获得批准:比特币将上涨突破 10 万美元
  • 如果现货 ETF 被延迟:比特币价格会大幅波动
  • 如果现货 ETF 被拒绝:比特币会因为红鲱鱼的出现、监管形成等因素下跌。

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