Zhipu AI Faces Major Equity Unlocking Test in July with Trading Volume Increasing 2.5 Times, New Chi

On June 23, Zhipu AI (02513.HK), the first AI stock in China, had approximately 17.35 million shares available for trading at the time of its listing. As a low liquidity, high FDV 'trading' stock, Zhipu will face an equity unlocking on July 8. According to current public information, the most certain batch of unlocks on July 8 includes about 25.68 million shares from cornerstone investors. A total of 11 cornerstone investors subscribed for approximately HKD 2.984 billion at an issue price of HKD 116.2, translating to about 25.68 million shares, which accounts for approximately 5.76% of the total share capital. After July 8, the trading volume will expand from 17.35 million shares to approximately 43.03 million shares, nearly 2.5 times the original amount. Based on the intraday high on June 22, the 25.68 million shares correspond to a book value of about HKD 73.4 billion, indicating a shift in supply and demand for shares. On June 22, Zhipu's market capitalization was approximately USD 137 billion, with projected revenue of around USD 100 million for the full year of 2025, corresponding to a price-to-sales ratio (PS) of about 1280 times. In comparison, OpenAI is projected to have a revenue of about USD 13 billion and a valuation of USD 730 billion in 2025, resulting in a PS of approximately 56 times. Using OpenAI's multiples, Zhipu's 'reasonable' market value is estimated to be between USD 4 billion and USD 8 billion. Even with JPMorgan's forecast of a 534% revenue increase in 2026 (approximately USD 640 million), applying OpenAI's multiples would only support a market value of USD 25 billion to USD 50 billion. Zhipu's current price is supported by scarcity, imagination, and capital structure. For more reports, see 'Institutions Earn 100 Times, Is Zhipu's Stock Price at Its Peak?'