Bitunix Analyst: High Interest Rates Replace War as New Pricing Core in Markets

On June 23, a noticeable change began to emerge in global markets: while geopolitical risks remain, the dominance of asset prices is gradually shifting back to monetary policy and liquidity conditions. Technical talks between the U.S. and Iran officially commenced in Switzerland, with the U.S. simultaneously issuing a 60-day temporary license allowing Iran to resume oil sales. Progress has also been made regarding the passage mechanism in the Strait of Hormuz and the unfreezing of certain assets. Concerns over disruptions in energy supply continue to decline, with Qatar confirming that the explosion at its gas plant was merely an industrial accident and will not affect LNG exports, further strengthening expectations for supply recovery. However, market focus has gradually shifted towards the Federal Reserve. The impact of Walsh's first meeting in office is still unfolding, with a recent report from Bank of America even predicting that the Fed may raise interest rates three times this year, totaling 75 basis points. Meanwhile, support for reforms to reduce forward guidance within the Fed is gaining traction among officials, and the market is beginning to accept a new environment characterized by decreased transparency in future monetary policy and increased volatility. This repricing has already been reflected in global asset markets. The dollar remains strong, while the yen has experienced significant fluctuations as it approaches historical lows, with urgent communications between the finance ministers of Japan and the U.S. indicating rising exchange rate risks. On the other hand, high-valuation growth assets are starting to face pressure. SpaceX has declined for the third consecutive trading day, with its market value significantly retreating from its peak, reflecting that when the market begins to recalculate the cost of capital, long-term growth stories no longer enjoy the valuation premiums of the past. For the cryptocurrency market, this signifies a shift in risk sources. In recent weeks, the market has primarily traded on risks related to war, energy, and shipping; now, as the situation in the Middle East gradually enters a negotiation framework, the market is refocusing on dollar liquidity, U.S. Treasury yields, and the direction of Fed policy. If expectations for interest rate hikes continue to rise, funds will be more inclined to flow into the dollar and high-yield fixed-income assets, while the crypto market will need to wait for new signals of a liquidity environment shift to attract incremental capital. In the short term, the cooling of Middle Eastern risks helps suppress energy prices, but what truly influences the next phase of risk asset performance is no longer whether the Strait of Hormuz is open, but whether the market begins to believe that the Fed will enter another rate hike cycle. This also means that in the coming weeks, the core of market volatility will gradually shift from geopolitical issues to inflation data, employment data, and the Fed's policy signals themselves.